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Gold: Midterm Year Weakness

Gold is currently trading below $4,000 per ounce. The analyst expects a significant correction during the midterm year (second year of the presidential cycle), which is historically typical.

• 2022: Correction of 22%
• 2008: Correction of 34%
• 2006: Correction of 26%

The current correction of about 30% aligns with past bull market corrections. While the exact bottom is hard to predict, the timing is clearer.

• Average of last midterm years (2018, 2022): Bottom between August and September.
• Comparison with Bitcoin: Average bottom in early July.
• Forecast: Bottom between July and October 2026.

• Gold is approaching a support zone near $3,800.
• A drop of about 4% from current levels would be needed to reach this zone.
• In previous cycles, this level was briefly breached (e.g., 2008, 2022).

• After the bottom, the gold bull market could continue into the end of the decade.
• Year-to-date return is around -5% to -6%; in previous midterm years, it was -10% to -11% at the lows.

• Silver has fallen more sharply and is now testing its support zone.
• The gold-silver ratio suggests further underperformance by silver until gold bottoms.
• If silver drops below $50, it could represent a deep value zone.

Conclusion: Patience is key. Seasonal patterns point to a bottom forming in the coming months, after which a new uptrend could begin.

Summary follows...

Ethereum Short Squeeze: What Really Caused the Epic Rally

• Between August 19–21, over $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated within a 24-hour window, with 48-hour totals reaching $4 billion.
• Ethereum accounted for roughly $1.13 billion – the largest one-sided short liquidation event since November 2021.
• A trader known as PensionUSDT lost about $24 million, nearly half of their lifetime profits from shorting crypto.
• More than 172,000 traders were wiped out in the same window.

• Positioning + market depth: ETH had heavily net-short open interest and negative funding rates, while Bitcoin had been ranging sideways for weeks.
• Supply squeeze: ETH held on exchanges fell from ~7.7 million to ~6.54 million ETH (mid-August), a decline of about 15%.
• Thin order books: Above $1,950–$2,000, there was little resting supply, creating a vacuum that amplified the price surge.
• Redistribution, not dumping: Wallets with 1–10 ETH increased their share to 4.52%, meaning coins were changing hands rather than being sold.

• Bears argued that Layer-2 networks cannibalized Ethereum mainnet: less activity → fewer fees → less ETH burned.
• But this was not a sign of weakness – it was the deliberate result of Ethereum’s roadmap:
  • EIP-4844 and the Fusaka upgrade cut L2 fees by over 90%.
  • The upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade (Glowaz + Amsterdam) promises massive scalability – its first public testnet launched exactly during the short squeeze, with mainnet targeted for Q4.

• Ethereum hosts ~$165 billion in stablecoins – over half of the global market.
• June saw a record $1.79 trillion in global stablecoin settlement volume, with Ethereum + L2s taking the largest share.
• Tokenized US Treasuries approached $16 billion.
• ~34% of all ETH (~41.7 million coins) is staked and locked out of circulation.

• One day before the squeeze, the SEC under Paul Atkins proposed a sweeping new crypto rulebook (402 pages):
  • Startup exemption: raises up to $5 million over 4 years without accredited investor restrictions.
  • Tiered fundraising: up to $20M with simple disclosures, or up to $75M with audited accounts.
  • Safe harbor: tokens could cease being treated as securities once promised work is completed or abandoned.
• This could pave the way for an “ICO 2.0” – and much of it would likely happen on Ethereum, where capital, stablecoins, and institutional custody already sit.

• After H1 outflows, July brought $365 million in net inflows into US spot ETH ETFs – outpacing Bitcoin ETFs for the first time on a monthly basis.
• August saw the longest inflow streak since October 2025.
• BlackRock’s staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) attracted over $600 million; Fidelity filed for full staking capabilities.

• Bears were working from accurate data, but drew the wrong conclusion: concerns were more than priced in.
• Barring major negative surprises, the setup looks bullish for ETH going forward.

Ahold is a Dutch-listed grocery retailer with strong exposure to the US (55-60% of revenue). The stock dropped from over €40 to €30, triggering viewer comments.

• Revenue: Stagnant on constant currency basis.
• Online: Growing, but traditional business slowing.
• Margins: Stable.
• Earnings per share: -1.4% – neither bad nor stellar.
• Free cash flow: €2.3 billion, covering dividends and buybacks (€2 billion).

• Dividend yield: 4%.
• Buyback yield: 3.7% (included in growth assumptions).
• Growth assumption: 3% from buybacks + 2.5% organic = 5% dividend growth.
• At a 10% discount rate, intrinsic value is €28 – close to current price.
• Expected long-term return: high single digits (around 8%).

• The decline is due to rising rates: US 10-year Treasury yields 4.7% vs Ahold’s 4%.
• If interest rates fall (e.g., 3% dividend yield assumption), intrinsic value jumps to €34, and if the stock re-rates to 40, you get a 30% upside.

From an absolute value perspective, the analyst prefers a entry price in the low 20s to achieve a 10-12% return, independent of interest rate fluctuations. For now, Ahold stays on the watchlist – interesting but not yet compelling.

Bitcoin: Full Bull Market? 📈 + Nvidia's 30x Performance 🚀

This analysis covers current market movements and technological developments. The tone is informative but with a touch of humor and critical notes.

• Brain Drain at OpenAI: Key personnel are leaving despite an upcoming IPO – an alarming sign.
• US National Debt: Over $40 trillion, exceeding GDP. The ratio is 124-126% – a historically high value that implies more money printing and inflation.
• Housing Crisis: Compared to 10 years ago, mortgage rates have risen from 3.4% to 6.7%, and average home prices from $243,000 to $434,000. The monthly payment is 160% higher (from $862 to $2,240).
• Diesel Shortages: Russian diesel exports are collapsing, threatening global supply chains.

• Massive Inflows: $600 billion in new crypto market cap created in just 8 days. The Fear & Greed Index exploded from extreme fear (8-12) to 74 (near extreme greed).
• Bitcoin Rally: Over 30% gain in 9 days, currently around $79,000. The price broke through the 200-day moving average and is testing the 365-day line at $83,200.
• Altcoin Awakening: Altcoin trading volume (excluding BTC/ETH) surged by $135 billion – the "altcoin casinos" are open again. Solana (SOL) and Hype (HYPER) lead the gainers.
• Bitcoin ETFs: Attracted $2.4 billion in 6 days, led by BlackRock (IBIT). Every billion drives Bitcoin's price up by roughly 3%. Fidelity alone bought $104.8 million yesterday.
• Forecast: The CEO of CryptoQuant declares: The bear market is over, the early bull market is over too – the full bull market is on.

• Nvidia (NVDA): Reports tomorrow. New chip "Vera Rubin" offers 30x more performance than its predecessor. 30-40% of chips are said to be bought by Elon Musk (Tesla/SpaceX). The focus on AI agents will explode demand.
• Tesla: The "Semi" truck and the humanoid robot "Optimus" are reportedly entering mass production in September. The "Cybercab" launch event is expected in 9 days.
• Marvel (MRVL): Reports on DRAM bottlenecks – working on creative solutions like DDR4 recycling.
• Surprise: Victoria's Secret: Stock price doubled, driven by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. People with less weight buy more lingerie – an unexpected domino effect.

• Copper: New all-time high. The "easiest macro trade ever" due to AI demand. Forecast: Rising until 2030-2035.
• Reminder: Study history! Capitalism creates wealth and solves problems (e.g., SpaceX creating 10,000 jobs in Louisiana). Socialism/Communism leads to poverty and death.

The crypto market is in full bull mode, driven by ETFs and altcoin volume. In the tech sector, AI, Nvidia, and Tesla dominate. The biggest risks lie in national debt, inflation, and geopolitical bottlenecks. Smart investors bet on hard assets like Bitcoin and copper.

In this interview, Bitcoin expert Roman Reer (Blogtrainer) and Mario Lochen discuss the current state and future of Bitcoin. Topics: bear market, cycles, geopolitical influences, and Bitcoin's role as a store of value.

• Bear market end? October 2024 as a possible low point, based on historical four-year cycles. However, the recent rally could shift the cycle.
• Strongest Bitcoin week ever in dollar terms (+$14,300–14,500) – a sign of new momentum.
• Self-fulfilling prophecy? The cycles might break due to mass expectations.

• Roman moves away from Bitcoin as everyday payment. Instead: reserve asset – similar to the gold standard, but digital.
• Stablecoins are no competition, as they depend on the dollar and share its trust issues.
• Bitcoin as a global reserve asset could allow the dollar to remain as a 'credit layer' above it.

• US debt of $40 trillion drives demand for hard assets.
• High interest rates vs. debt problem: A dilemma that benefits Bitcoin in the long run.
• Geopolitical tensions (Iran, BRICS) are often expressions of the fight over the monetary system. Bitcoin offers independence from the dollar and renminbi.

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Trump): Not necessarily state-owned, but through companies like BlackRock, Strategy. The US already has a high Bitcoin concentration.
• States buying secretly? Speculations about Intel's mining division and Putin's statements.
• Bitcoin is not centrally controllable – unlike the crypto sector as a whole.

• No danger to Bitcoin – even a collapse of Strategy would have only short-term effects.
• Criticism: Too aggressive debt issuance and contradictory communication ('never sell Bitcoin' vs. actual sales).

• No acute threat: Dangerous quantum computers would need millions of error-free qubits; today we have ~100.
• Bitcoin can upgrade – e.g., quantum-safe addresses. The risk is relevant in 10–20 years but solvable.

• Planned change to the holding period (abolishing tax exemption after 1 year) will not generate additional revenue, but will drive capital outflows.
• Alternatives: Loans against Bitcoin (no tax event) or moving abroad.
• Austria as example: Minimal tax revenue from similar reforms.

• Positive: Bitcoin as a reserve asset, less volatility, AI as a new use case (agents paying each other).
• Risks: Wars and high interest rates short-term, but long-term, loss of trust in fiat strengthens Bitcoin.

Roman sees Bitcoin as a root solution to the problem of currency debasement and state control. Freedom and decentralization are core values. The path is long, but the direction is clear.

• The current US real estate and economic cycle started around 2011/2012 and is now at its peak.
• Based on 220 years of US real estate data, the cycle has three phases: first half, second half, and peak collapse.
• First half (approx. 2012–2018): Characterized by skepticism, fear, and recession concerns (e.g., European debt crisis).
• Second half (approx. 2020–2024): Marked by a "Winner's Curse" – rising euphoria, leverage, and overinvestment.

• The peak is expected around 2025/2026, with a potential trough by 2029/2030.
• Cycle severity varies: Not every cycle is as severe as 2008; for example, the 1989–1992 downturn was milder.
• Leading indicators: US homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI) often weaken before the stock market as the real estate market softens.

• Order of peaks: Real estate peaks first, then stocks, then precious metals, and finally commodities.
• Bitcoin & Crypto: A significant rally is possible in the coming years, but returns may be lower due to diminishing returns (100–200%, not 1000%).
• The crypto market may be left-translated – peaking earlier in the cycle than expected.
• Precious Metals: Gold could rise until 2027 but then pause for an extended period; silver is more uncertain.

• Real estate investing: Focus on undervalued regions (e.g., Melbourne, Australia) where prices are below construction costs.
• Timing for beginners: Even if the market falls in the coming years, organize your finances now, as credit is hard to get at the bottom.
• REITs often underperform direct real estate or the S&P 500.
• Bitcoin strategy: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the second half of the midterm year has historically worked well; expect diminishing returns.

• The Fed may raise rates once more before the cycle ends to cool overheating.
• The US dollar tends to decline in the second half of the real estate cycle – it is currently consolidating in a range since mid-2023.
• A break below 97 would be a bearish signal, potentially starting a new downtrend.