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Securitize: Bringing Tokenized Securities to Wall Street

Securitize recently raised $400 million and is now listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SECZ. In this interview, CEO Carlos Domingo discusses the business model, market challenges, and the future of tokenization.

The Business Model

Securitize is an SEC-registered Transfer Agent that records security ownership on a public blockchain. Unlike traditional transfer agents, it uses blockchain for tokenization. The business has three main revenue streams:

• Transfer Agent: A service-based model charging fees based on the volume of securities managed or assets under management (AUM).
• Broker-Dealer: A transaction-based business generating fees from trades (e.g., capital raises, stock trading).
• Fund Administration: Managing the on-chain/off-chain reconciliation for tokenized funds.

The Bottleneck: Demand, Not Supply

The main bottleneck to growth is demand, not supply. Many companies want to tokenize, but the buying side is still dominated by the crypto audience. The big breakthrough will happen when traditional investors can use tokenized assets without noticing the blockchain, just like how the internet is invisible today.

Real Token vs. Synthetic

There's a key difference between Securitize's approach and other offers like Robinhood or Ono:

• Securitize: Offers the real native token. The holder is on the company's cap table, gets dividends and voting rights, and benefits from corporate actions. There is zero counterparty risk.
• Other Providers: Often offer only derivatives or synthetic tokens. These only track the price, not the real asset. This leads to counterparty risk, fragmented liquidity, incomplete rights (e.g., no dividends), and regulatory risks (e.g., insider trading).

US Regulations: The NBBO Challenge

A major hurdle for on-chain liquidity is the US National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) rule. This rule forces broker-dealers to offer the best available price. Since on-chain trading is outside the national market system, Securitize must buy price data from external providers, which is complex and expensive. The SEC has proposed eliminating these rules, which would significantly simplify on-chain trading.

The Role of Perpetual Futures (Perps)

Perps on tokenized stocks require a robust 24/7 spot market to calculate the funding rate. Native, real tokenized stocks are the perfect basis for this. Combining a real 24/7 spot market with perps could unlock massive liquidity, for example through basis trading arbitrage.

Outlook: The Next 3 Years

The industry goal is to reach $1 trillion in tokenized assets under management (AUM) within three years, up from the current ~$30-35 billion. If Securitize holds its ~10% market share, it would reach $100 billion in AUM, a 20x increase.

Overview

Ahold is a Dutch-listed grocery retailer with strong exposure to the US (55-60% of revenue). The stock dropped from over €40 to €30, triggering viewer comments.

Q2 Financial Performance

• Revenue: Stagnant on constant currency basis.
• Online: Growing, but traditional business slowing.
• Margins: Stable.
• Earnings per share: -1.4% – neither bad nor stellar.
• Free cash flow: €2.3 billion, covering dividends and buybacks (€2 billion).

Valuation Analysis

• Dividend yield: 4%.
• Buyback yield: 3.7% (included in growth assumptions).
• Growth assumption: 3% from buybacks + 2.5% organic = 5% dividend growth.
• At a 10% discount rate, intrinsic value is €28 – close to current price.
• Expected long-term return: high single digits (around 8%).

Interest Rate Context

• The decline is due to rising rates: US 10-year Treasury yields 4.7% vs Ahold’s 4%.
• If interest rates fall (e.g., 3% dividend yield assumption), intrinsic value jumps to €34, and if the stock re-rates to 40, you get a 30% upside.

Conclusion

From an absolute value perspective, the analyst prefers a entry price in the low 20s to achieve a 10-12% return, independent of interest rate fluctuations. For now, Ahold stays on the watchlist – interesting but not yet compelling.

Bitcoin: Full Bull Market? 📈 + Nvidia's 30x Performance 🚀

This analysis covers current market movements and technological developments. The tone is informative but with a touch of humor and critical notes.

Macroeconomic Challenges 🏚️

• Brain Drain at OpenAI: Key personnel are leaving despite an upcoming IPO – an alarming sign.
• US National Debt: Over $40 trillion, exceeding GDP. The ratio is 124-126% – a historically high value that implies more money printing and inflation.
• Housing Crisis: Compared to 10 years ago, mortgage rates have risen from 3.4% to 6.7%, and average home prices from $243,000 to $434,000. The monthly payment is 160% higher (from $862 to $2,240).
• Diesel Shortages: Russian diesel exports are collapsing, threatening global supply chains.

Crypto Market: From Bear to Bull 🐂

• Massive Inflows: $600 billion in new crypto market cap created in just 8 days. The Fear & Greed Index exploded from extreme fear (8-12) to 74 (near extreme greed).
• Bitcoin Rally: Over 30% gain in 9 days, currently around $79,000. The price broke through the 200-day moving average and is testing the 365-day line at $83,200.
• Altcoin Awakening: Altcoin trading volume (excluding BTC/ETH) surged by $135 billion – the "altcoin casinos" are open again. Solana (SOL) and Hype (HYPER) lead the gainers.
• Bitcoin ETFs: Attracted $2.4 billion in 6 days, led by BlackRock (IBIT). Every billion drives Bitcoin's price up by roughly 3%. Fidelity alone bought $104.8 million yesterday.
• Forecast: The CEO of CryptoQuant declares: The bear market is over, the early bull market is over too – the full bull market is on.

Tech & Stock Highlights 🤖

• Nvidia (NVDA): Reports tomorrow. New chip "Vera Rubin" offers 30x more performance than its predecessor. 30-40% of chips are said to be bought by Elon Musk (Tesla/SpaceX). The focus on AI agents will explode demand.
• Tesla: The "Semi" truck and the humanoid robot "Optimus" are reportedly entering mass production in September. The "Cybercab" launch event is expected in 9 days.
• Marvel (MRVL): Reports on DRAM bottlenecks – working on creative solutions like DDR4 recycling.
• Surprise: Victoria's Secret: Stock price doubled, driven by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. People with less weight buy more lingerie – an unexpected domino effect.

Commodities & Strategy 💡

• Copper: New all-time high. The "easiest macro trade ever" due to AI demand. Forecast: Rising until 2030-2035.
• Reminder: Study history! Capitalism creates wealth and solves problems (e.g., SpaceX creating 10,000 jobs in Louisiana). Socialism/Communism leads to poverty and death.

Conclusion

The crypto market is in full bull mode, driven by ETFs and altcoin volume. In the tech sector, AI, Nvidia, and Tesla dominate. The biggest risks lie in national debt, inflation, and geopolitical bottlenecks. Smart investors bet on hard assets like Bitcoin and copper.

Introduction and Context

In this interview, Bitcoin expert Roman Reer (Blogtrainer) and Mario Lochen discuss the current state and future of Bitcoin. Topics: bear market, cycles, geopolitical influences, and Bitcoin's role as a store of value.

Current Market Situation and Four-Year Cycle

• Bear market end? October 2024 as a possible low point, based on historical four-year cycles. However, the recent rally could shift the cycle.
• Strongest Bitcoin week ever in dollar terms (+$14,300–14,500) – a sign of new momentum.
• Self-fulfilling prophecy? The cycles might break due to mass expectations.

Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset vs. Means of Payment

• Roman moves away from Bitcoin as everyday payment. Instead: reserve asset – similar to the gold standard, but digital.
• Stablecoins are no competition, as they depend on the dollar and share its trust issues.
• Bitcoin as a global reserve asset could allow the dollar to remain as a 'credit layer' above it.

Geopolitical Influences and Debt Crisis

• US debt of $40 trillion drives demand for hard assets.
• High interest rates vs. debt problem: A dilemma that benefits Bitcoin in the long run.
• Geopolitical tensions (Iran, BRICS) are often expressions of the fight over the monetary system. Bitcoin offers independence from the dollar and renminbi.

Role of States and Institutions

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Trump): Not necessarily state-owned, but through companies like BlackRock, Strategy. The US already has a high Bitcoin concentration.
• States buying secretly? Speculations about Intel's mining division and Putin's statements.
• Bitcoin is not centrally controllable – unlike the crypto sector as a whole.

Michael Saylor and Strategy

• No danger to Bitcoin – even a collapse of Strategy would have only short-term effects.
• Criticism: Too aggressive debt issuance and contradictory communication ('never sell Bitcoin' vs. actual sales).

Quantum Computer Risk

• No acute threat: Dangerous quantum computers would need millions of error-free qubits; today we have ~100.
• Bitcoin can upgrade – e.g., quantum-safe addresses. The risk is relevant in 10–20 years but solvable.

Tax Holding Period and Germany as a Location

• Planned change to the holding period (abolishing tax exemption after 1 year) will not generate additional revenue, but will drive capital outflows.
• Alternatives: Loans against Bitcoin (no tax event) or moving abroad.
• Austria as example: Minimal tax revenue from similar reforms.

Outlook 2027

• Positive: Bitcoin as a reserve asset, less volatility, AI as a new use case (agents paying each other).
• Risks: Wars and high interest rates short-term, but long-term, loss of trust in fiat strengthens Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Roman sees Bitcoin as a root solution to the problem of currency debasement and state control. Freedom and decentralization are core values. The path is long, but the direction is clear.

Overview of the 18-Year Real Estate Cycle

• The current US real estate and economic cycle started around 2011/2012 and is now at its peak.
• Based on 220 years of US real estate data, the cycle has three phases: first half, second half, and peak collapse.
• First half (approx. 2012–2018): Characterized by skepticism, fear, and recession concerns (e.g., European debt crisis).
• Second half (approx. 2020–2024): Marked by a "Winner's Curse" – rising euphoria, leverage, and overinvestment.

Current Position in the Cycle

• The peak is expected around 2025/2026, with a potential trough by 2029/2030.
• Cycle severity varies: Not every cycle is as severe as 2008; for example, the 1989–1992 downturn was milder.
• Leading indicators: US homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI) often weaken before the stock market as the real estate market softens.

Impact on Other Markets

• Order of peaks: Real estate peaks first, then stocks, then precious metals, and finally commodities.
• Bitcoin & Crypto: A significant rally is possible in the coming years, but returns may be lower due to diminishing returns (100–200%, not 1000%).
• The crypto market may be left-translated – peaking earlier in the cycle than expected.
• Precious Metals: Gold could rise until 2027 but then pause for an extended period; silver is more uncertain.

Practical Tips

• Real estate investing: Focus on undervalued regions (e.g., Melbourne, Australia) where prices are below construction costs.
• Timing for beginners: Even if the market falls in the coming years, organize your finances now, as credit is hard to get at the bottom.
• REITs often underperform direct real estate or the S&P 500.
• Bitcoin strategy: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the second half of the midterm year has historically worked well; expect diminishing returns.

Fed & US Dollar

• The Fed may raise rates once more before the cycle ends to cool overheating.
• The US dollar tends to decline in the second half of the real estate cycle – it is currently consolidating in a range since mid-2023.
• A break below 97 would be a bearish signal, potentially starting a new downtrend.

📊 Prosus: Tencent at a Huge Discount

Prosus is a holding company that owns approximately 23% of Tencent – offering a cheap way to gain indirect exposure to Tencent. Its stock trades at a 30–50% discount to net asset value (NAV), making it attractive for value investors.

🔍 Valuation & Key Metrics

• P/E ratio: ~8 (much lower than Tencent directly)
• Market cap: ~$90B vs. NAV of ~$153B (realistically ~$130B after deductions)
• Debt: low, high interest coverage

💼 Holdings & Value Drivers

• Tencent: core business, growing dividend
• Other listed stakes: Meituan, Delivery Hero, DoorDash, Udemy, etc.
• Unlisted stakes: Management estimates $32B (value investors assume ~$16B)
• EBITDA & Free Cash Flow: turned positive for the first time – other businesses become self-sustaining

🔄 Share Buybacks & Value Creation

• Prosus has bought back 40% of shares, increasing NAV per share by 80%
• Buybacks are funded by selling Tencent shares, raising the Tencent exposure per Prosus share
• Dividend multiplier effect: buybacks amplify dividend yield

⚠️ Risks & Criticism

• Holding discount persists due to management's unexpected acquisitions (e.g., Alan – a French AI platform for $460M, or $460 per customer)
• Tax implications if Tencent shares were distributed directly
• New CEO's AI strategy may distract from the buyback program

🎯 Conclusion

• Prosus is a value opportunity: you get Tencent at a discount and all other holdings for free.
• If the discount narrows or the non-Tencent businesses grow, there is upside potential.
• Ideal for investors wanting Tencent exposure plus a side bet on AI and tech.

Coinbase Launches Tokenized Stocks on Base

In this podcast episode, Jesse Pollock, Founder and Lead of Base at Coinbase, introduces Coinbase Tokenized Stocks – a product designed to bring the world's largest asset class, equities, onto the Base blockchain and into the programmable economy.

Key Product Features

• 1:1 Backing: Each tokenized stock represents a real share with a direct claim for the holder. Built in collaboration with Abu Dhabi (ADGM) and Alpaca.
• Dividends & Governance: Dividends are distributed via a rebasing model – the token balance increases automatically. Governance rights are included as well.
• Permissionless & KYC-Free: The tokens are publicly available and freely tradable on Base. US users are only restricted at the interface layer.
• Launch Stocks: Starting with Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Google, followed by eight more – with plans to scale to thousands over time.

DeFi Integration & Ecosystem

• Aerodrome provides deep liquidity from day one.
• Morpho and AB are building borrowing and lending products around the tokenized stocks.
• This creates a flywheel of lending, borrowing, and yield generation – aiming to grow Base's DeFi TVL from ~$5 billion to over $100 billion.

The Neo-Broker Opportunity

• The product is especially aimed at neo-banks worldwide, enabling them to offer stock trading, credit, and yield products without costly legacy integrations.
• Coinbase envisions Base as the backend for a global financial super app: one API for saving, spending, investing, and borrowing.

Vision & Outlook

• Long-term goal: bring all world currencies on-chain. Base already supports 22–23 non-dollar stablecoins and hosts the largest FX markets on-chain.
• Further building blocks include portfolio lines of credit, seamless on-ramps, and the ability to tokenize stocks directly from traditional brokerages.
• Jesse's key message: "We have all the pieces now – we just have to put them together." The next wave of innovation will be driven by combining AI, programmable assets, and global payment networks.