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In this episode of NFA Live, hosts Ben and Rob, along with the main host, discuss recent market developments, focusing on Bitcoin's new low and potential future scenarios. Here are the key points:

Bitcoin: New Low and Cycle Forecast

• Bitcoin hit a new low of around $57,000 but quickly recovered to about $61,500.
• Ben compares the current trend (2026) to the 2018 bear market:
  • Similar lows in February, March/April, and June/July.
  • The 2026 low of $57,000 corresponds to $5,700 in 2018—a 10x move.
• Forecast: A temporary relief rally is possible, but a second weakness phase in late summer/fall (September to October) is expected, driven by a stock market correction.
• The 4-year cycle remains intact: lows typically occur in midterm years (currently 2026). The bottom should be reached in about 100 days (roughly 3 months).
• Recommendation: Instead of waiting for the absolute bottom, regular buying (DCA) from the second half of the year makes sense.

Market Context: Macroeconomic Factors

• Dollar and Yen: The US dollar hits 60-month highs, while the yen reaches a 40-year high. This could pressure carry trades and negatively impact risk assets like crypto.
• Rate Hikes: Despite falling oil prices, further rate hikes (e.g., in September) are expected, which could headwind Bitcoin.
• Comparison to previous cycles: Current losses of 51% are less dramatic than 71% in 2022—a sign of decreasing volatility.

AI: Chinese Models and Privacy

• Open-source models from China (e.g., DeepSeek, MiniMax) are catching up, are cheaper, and can run locally, increasing data security.
• Rob warns against centralized LLMs like OpenAI and Anthropic: They could siphon corporate IP and feed it into their models.
• Quote from Alex Karp (Palantir CEO): "Companies should use private LLMs to avoid data leaks."
• Cost explosion: Major AI companies are burning billions—Uber spent $1 billion in 4 months. Once subsidies end, prices may rise.
• Practical application: Private LLMs are still complex (require CLI skills), but possible with a Mac Mini (around $550). Rob recommends switching for long-term data security.

Personal Insights from the Hosts

• Ben: Changed his mind on meme coins—they aren't dying out as gambling addiction persists in crypto.
• Rob: Learned that bear markets are more bearable if you took profits earlier. Additionally: Dogs are the best (after the Venezuela earthquake) and insider information from Polymarket hints at "Guy's" appearance at the ITC conference.

Other

• Soccer discussion: The US was controversially sent off in the World Cup match against Belgium. Ben criticizes inconsistent rule enforcement.
• ITC Conference: November 20–22, 2026 in Miami, focused on investing, not just Bitcoin treasuries.

In this interview, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX, Maelstrom) discusses current market moves and his thesis of an impending AI credit bubble.

Bitcoin Rally and Debt Crisis

• The recent Bitcoin rally above $69,000 was triggered by a US Treasury buyback upsize for long-dated bonds.
• Key takeaway: This signals an implicit yield curve control (like Japan). The US will finance its debt at any cost – through money printing.
• Bitcoin is the purest hedge against this debasement. Hayes expects a long-term target of $1 million per Bitcoin.

AI as the Next 2008 Crash

• Hayes sees the AI infrastructure boom as a credit bubble modeled on the 2008 housing crisis.
• The phases:
  1. Overbuild: Hyperscalers build data centers with borrowed money.
  2. Credit Stress: These are real estate developers, not tech companies. Their debt is packaged into opaque securities.
  3. Bailout: The state will rescue the bubble with more money printing, boosting Bitcoin further.

Flop Labs: The Economy for AI Agents

• The Problem: AI agents need a currency directly convertible to compute (FLOPS) – not fiat or stablecoins controlled by humans.
• The Solution Flop: A blockchain network creating a global spot market for computing power.
  • Mining: Anyone can offer GPU power and earn FLOP tokens (block subsidy).
  • Usage: Agents pay with FLOP for compute and can store their "memories" (context) there.
  • Token Incentive: Initially, compute is almost given away to create network effects.
• Success Metric: The amount of inference processed (actual compute work done).

Price Predictions and Outlook

• Bitcoin (in 12 months): Above $200,000.
• Ethereum: Between $5,000 and $10,000 – Hayes sees ETH as the best risk-reward trade in crypto due to its weak performance.
• His thesis would be wrong if AI enthusiasm fades entirely and agents are not used.

This video explores the Better Vessel, a tool that helped a Filipino barista achieve the highest espresso scores at the 2025 World Barista Championship.

• Three parts: A top chilling sphere (added by the creator, not official), a double-walled main vessel, and a movable base with a stand.
• How it works: Espresso is pulled into the vessel, left to rest for 15-20 seconds, then placed on the final cup – the sphere lifts, trapping the crema while the clear espresso flows through.

• Crema is bitter – it's an emulsion of oils, fines, and CO2.
• Removing it yields a sweeter, more acidic, and silkier shot.

• The creator pulls a double shot: half normally (with crema), half with the Better Vessel (without crema).
• The Better Vessel shot: smoother mouthfeel, more prominent fruit flavors, less bitterness – almost like fruit juice.

• In barista competitions, judges award points for undisturbed crema on the surface.
• The Better Vessel allows competitors to show perfect crema, then quickly remove it – a major time-saver (12 drinks in 15 minutes).

• Pros: Fast cooling, effective crema separation, easy to use.
• Cons: Expensive, limited production, single-shot capacity, fragile 3D-printed base (can crack).

• Not a necessity, but a fun way to experience espresso differently. Traditionalists may still prefer the classic shot with crema.

No imperial units to convert; all measurements remain as in the original.

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