Welcome to Nofinity

👑 The Most Important Signal: World Cup Over – Bitcoin Bottom?

• Historically, the end of the World Cup often marked the bottom of the Bitcoin price.
• It remains to be seen if this pattern repeats, but signs are accumulating.

📈 Bitcoin in July: First Signs of Recovery

• Bitcoin is up 11% in July, currently trading above $65,000.
• A clear signal: Four consecutive days of positive ETF inflows for the first time since April 2026.
• This suggests the massive ETF dumping of the last three months is easing, attracting new investors.

🔴 Flashing Buy Signal: The End of the Bear Market Nears?

• A CryptoQuant chart shows a historic end-of-bear-market signal.
• The short-term holder cost basis has dropped below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis (“Cost Basis Crossing”). This happens roughly once every four years.
• This signals the final phase of the bear market, making Dollar-Cost-Averaging particularly promising.
• The speaker estimates 54 days (originally 61) of the bear market remain.

📉 The Extreme Scarcity of Bitcoin

• Only 4.5% of the total 21 million Bitcoins remain to be mined (~940,000 BTC).
• MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor already owns 850,000 BTC – virtually the entire future supply for the next 120 years.
• There are about 70 million millionaires worldwide, but there will never be more than 15 million Bitcoins tradable (86% are held long-term).

🔮 Forecast Check: Mark Moss vs. Peter Brandt vs. CAGR Analysis

• Mark Moss: Predicts $1 million by 2030, $14 million by 2040, and $45 million by 2050.
• Peter Brandt (TA Guru): Expects a cycle peak only in 2029 around $300,000 and a final bottom at $40,000 in October 2026.
• The speaker's CAGR analysis questions these targets:
  • For $1 million in 4 years, an annual growth rate of 98% would be needed – unrealistic.
  • For $300,000 in 3 years, a yearly gain of 66% is still required.
  • Conclusion: The longer the timeframe, the more plausible (e.g., 31% for 2050). Current predictions seem ambitious from the current level (65K).

🌍 Global FIAT Crisis Drives Adoption

• Example India: The Reserve Bank must bail out the Rupee to prevent a collapse. The currency lost 160% against the USD in 18 years.
• Russia is preparing to legalize Bitcoin for cross-border trade (gas, oil).
• Bitcoin is increasingly adopted in countries with currency devaluation (Iran, Nigeria, India).

🏢 MicroStrategy Strategy

• Michael Saylor is strengthening reserves but also selling Bitcoin to pay dividends – a risky strategy.
• The goal is to bring the STRC (preferred stock) price back to $100 (currently $88.17).
• Time is short as the bear market is expected to end soon.

🤔 Bitcoin Controversy: Soft Fork vs. Spam

• Michael Saylor wrote a 110-page essay against BIP 1110 (a Soft Fork). He argues for “guardians of neutrality” instead of “guardians of purity” to fight spam transactions.
• The community is divided: Are miners dependent on spam fees? Does this undermine Bitcoin's simplicity?

💡 Visual Example: The Power of Time

• A movie quote from “Interstellar”: 1 hour on a planet = 7 years on Earth.
• Metaphor: Patience and a long holding period are key for disruptive assets like Bitcoin.

Conclusion: There are strong cyclical and fundamental signals for the bear market's end, but “moon” predictions should be taken with caution. Global FIAT crises are driving demand, while scarcity is historically unique.

Overview

Ahold is a Dutch-listed grocery retailer with strong exposure to the US (55-60% of revenue). The stock dropped from over €40 to €30, triggering viewer comments.

Q2 Financial Performance

• Revenue: Stagnant on constant currency basis.
• Online: Growing, but traditional business slowing.
• Margins: Stable.
• Earnings per share: -1.4% – neither bad nor stellar.
• Free cash flow: €2.3 billion, covering dividends and buybacks (€2 billion).

Valuation Analysis

• Dividend yield: 4%.
• Buyback yield: 3.7% (included in growth assumptions).
• Growth assumption: 3% from buybacks + 2.5% organic = 5% dividend growth.
• At a 10% discount rate, intrinsic value is €28 – close to current price.
• Expected long-term return: high single digits (around 8%).

Interest Rate Context

• The decline is due to rising rates: US 10-year Treasury yields 4.7% vs Ahold’s 4%.
• If interest rates fall (e.g., 3% dividend yield assumption), intrinsic value jumps to €34, and if the stock re-rates to 40, you get a 30% upside.

Conclusion

From an absolute value perspective, the analyst prefers a entry price in the low 20s to achieve a 10-12% return, independent of interest rate fluctuations. For now, Ahold stays on the watchlist – interesting but not yet compelling.

Bitcoin: Full Bull Market? 📈 + Nvidia's 30x Performance 🚀

This analysis covers current market movements and technological developments. The tone is informative but with a touch of humor and critical notes.

Macroeconomic Challenges 🏚️

• Brain Drain at OpenAI: Key personnel are leaving despite an upcoming IPO – an alarming sign.
• US National Debt: Over $40 trillion, exceeding GDP. The ratio is 124-126% – a historically high value that implies more money printing and inflation.
• Housing Crisis: Compared to 10 years ago, mortgage rates have risen from 3.4% to 6.7%, and average home prices from $243,000 to $434,000. The monthly payment is 160% higher (from $862 to $2,240).
• Diesel Shortages: Russian diesel exports are collapsing, threatening global supply chains.

Crypto Market: From Bear to Bull 🐂

• Massive Inflows: $600 billion in new crypto market cap created in just 8 days. The Fear & Greed Index exploded from extreme fear (8-12) to 74 (near extreme greed).
• Bitcoin Rally: Over 30% gain in 9 days, currently around $79,000. The price broke through the 200-day moving average and is testing the 365-day line at $83,200.
• Altcoin Awakening: Altcoin trading volume (excluding BTC/ETH) surged by $135 billion – the "altcoin casinos" are open again. Solana (SOL) and Hype (HYPER) lead the gainers.
• Bitcoin ETFs: Attracted $2.4 billion in 6 days, led by BlackRock (IBIT). Every billion drives Bitcoin's price up by roughly 3%. Fidelity alone bought $104.8 million yesterday.
• Forecast: The CEO of CryptoQuant declares: The bear market is over, the early bull market is over too – the full bull market is on.

Tech & Stock Highlights 🤖

• Nvidia (NVDA): Reports tomorrow. New chip "Vera Rubin" offers 30x more performance than its predecessor. 30-40% of chips are said to be bought by Elon Musk (Tesla/SpaceX). The focus on AI agents will explode demand.
• Tesla: The "Semi" truck and the humanoid robot "Optimus" are reportedly entering mass production in September. The "Cybercab" launch event is expected in 9 days.
• Marvel (MRVL): Reports on DRAM bottlenecks – working on creative solutions like DDR4 recycling.
• Surprise: Victoria's Secret: Stock price doubled, driven by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. People with less weight buy more lingerie – an unexpected domino effect.

Commodities & Strategy 💡

• Copper: New all-time high. The "easiest macro trade ever" due to AI demand. Forecast: Rising until 2030-2035.
• Reminder: Study history! Capitalism creates wealth and solves problems (e.g., SpaceX creating 10,000 jobs in Louisiana). Socialism/Communism leads to poverty and death.

Conclusion

The crypto market is in full bull mode, driven by ETFs and altcoin volume. In the tech sector, AI, Nvidia, and Tesla dominate. The biggest risks lie in national debt, inflation, and geopolitical bottlenecks. Smart investors bet on hard assets like Bitcoin and copper.

Introduction and Context

In this interview, Bitcoin expert Roman Reer (Blogtrainer) and Mario Lochen discuss the current state and future of Bitcoin. Topics: bear market, cycles, geopolitical influences, and Bitcoin's role as a store of value.

Current Market Situation and Four-Year Cycle

• Bear market end? October 2024 as a possible low point, based on historical four-year cycles. However, the recent rally could shift the cycle.
• Strongest Bitcoin week ever in dollar terms (+$14,300–14,500) – a sign of new momentum.
• Self-fulfilling prophecy? The cycles might break due to mass expectations.

Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset vs. Means of Payment

• Roman moves away from Bitcoin as everyday payment. Instead: reserve asset – similar to the gold standard, but digital.
• Stablecoins are no competition, as they depend on the dollar and share its trust issues.
• Bitcoin as a global reserve asset could allow the dollar to remain as a 'credit layer' above it.

Geopolitical Influences and Debt Crisis

• US debt of $40 trillion drives demand for hard assets.
• High interest rates vs. debt problem: A dilemma that benefits Bitcoin in the long run.
• Geopolitical tensions (Iran, BRICS) are often expressions of the fight over the monetary system. Bitcoin offers independence from the dollar and renminbi.

Role of States and Institutions

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Trump): Not necessarily state-owned, but through companies like BlackRock, Strategy. The US already has a high Bitcoin concentration.
• States buying secretly? Speculations about Intel's mining division and Putin's statements.
• Bitcoin is not centrally controllable – unlike the crypto sector as a whole.

Michael Saylor and Strategy

• No danger to Bitcoin – even a collapse of Strategy would have only short-term effects.
• Criticism: Too aggressive debt issuance and contradictory communication ('never sell Bitcoin' vs. actual sales).

Quantum Computer Risk

• No acute threat: Dangerous quantum computers would need millions of error-free qubits; today we have ~100.
• Bitcoin can upgrade – e.g., quantum-safe addresses. The risk is relevant in 10–20 years but solvable.

Tax Holding Period and Germany as a Location

• Planned change to the holding period (abolishing tax exemption after 1 year) will not generate additional revenue, but will drive capital outflows.
• Alternatives: Loans against Bitcoin (no tax event) or moving abroad.
• Austria as example: Minimal tax revenue from similar reforms.

Outlook 2027

• Positive: Bitcoin as a reserve asset, less volatility, AI as a new use case (agents paying each other).
• Risks: Wars and high interest rates short-term, but long-term, loss of trust in fiat strengthens Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Roman sees Bitcoin as a root solution to the problem of currency debasement and state control. Freedom and decentralization are core values. The path is long, but the direction is clear.

Overview of the 18-Year Real Estate Cycle

• The current US real estate and economic cycle started around 2011/2012 and is now at its peak.
• Based on 220 years of US real estate data, the cycle has three phases: first half, second half, and peak collapse.
• First half (approx. 2012–2018): Characterized by skepticism, fear, and recession concerns (e.g., European debt crisis).
• Second half (approx. 2020–2024): Marked by a "Winner's Curse" – rising euphoria, leverage, and overinvestment.

Current Position in the Cycle

• The peak is expected around 2025/2026, with a potential trough by 2029/2030.
• Cycle severity varies: Not every cycle is as severe as 2008; for example, the 1989–1992 downturn was milder.
• Leading indicators: US homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI) often weaken before the stock market as the real estate market softens.

Impact on Other Markets

• Order of peaks: Real estate peaks first, then stocks, then precious metals, and finally commodities.
• Bitcoin & Crypto: A significant rally is possible in the coming years, but returns may be lower due to diminishing returns (100–200%, not 1000%).
• The crypto market may be left-translated – peaking earlier in the cycle than expected.
• Precious Metals: Gold could rise until 2027 but then pause for an extended period; silver is more uncertain.

Practical Tips

• Real estate investing: Focus on undervalued regions (e.g., Melbourne, Australia) where prices are below construction costs.
• Timing for beginners: Even if the market falls in the coming years, organize your finances now, as credit is hard to get at the bottom.
• REITs often underperform direct real estate or the S&P 500.
• Bitcoin strategy: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the second half of the midterm year has historically worked well; expect diminishing returns.

Fed & US Dollar

• The Fed may raise rates once more before the cycle ends to cool overheating.
• The US dollar tends to decline in the second half of the real estate cycle – it is currently consolidating in a range since mid-2023.
• A break below 97 would be a bearish signal, potentially starting a new downtrend.

📊 Prosus: Tencent at a Huge Discount

Prosus is a holding company that owns approximately 23% of Tencent – offering a cheap way to gain indirect exposure to Tencent. Its stock trades at a 30–50% discount to net asset value (NAV), making it attractive for value investors.

🔍 Valuation & Key Metrics

• P/E ratio: ~8 (much lower than Tencent directly)
• Market cap: ~$90B vs. NAV of ~$153B (realistically ~$130B after deductions)
• Debt: low, high interest coverage

💼 Holdings & Value Drivers

• Tencent: core business, growing dividend
• Other listed stakes: Meituan, Delivery Hero, DoorDash, Udemy, etc.
• Unlisted stakes: Management estimates $32B (value investors assume ~$16B)
• EBITDA & Free Cash Flow: turned positive for the first time – other businesses become self-sustaining

🔄 Share Buybacks & Value Creation

• Prosus has bought back 40% of shares, increasing NAV per share by 80%
• Buybacks are funded by selling Tencent shares, raising the Tencent exposure per Prosus share
• Dividend multiplier effect: buybacks amplify dividend yield

⚠️ Risks & Criticism

• Holding discount persists due to management's unexpected acquisitions (e.g., Alan – a French AI platform for $460M, or $460 per customer)
• Tax implications if Tencent shares were distributed directly
• New CEO's AI strategy may distract from the buyback program

🎯 Conclusion

• Prosus is a value opportunity: you get Tencent at a discount and all other holdings for free.
• If the discount narrows or the non-Tencent businesses grow, there is upside potential.
• Ideal for investors wanting Tencent exposure plus a side bet on AI and tech.

Coinbase Launches Tokenized Stocks on Base

In this podcast episode, Jesse Pollock, Founder and Lead of Base at Coinbase, introduces Coinbase Tokenized Stocks – a product designed to bring the world's largest asset class, equities, onto the Base blockchain and into the programmable economy.

Key Product Features

• 1:1 Backing: Each tokenized stock represents a real share with a direct claim for the holder. Built in collaboration with Abu Dhabi (ADGM) and Alpaca.
• Dividends & Governance: Dividends are distributed via a rebasing model – the token balance increases automatically. Governance rights are included as well.
• Permissionless & KYC-Free: The tokens are publicly available and freely tradable on Base. US users are only restricted at the interface layer.
• Launch Stocks: Starting with Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Google, followed by eight more – with plans to scale to thousands over time.

DeFi Integration & Ecosystem

• Aerodrome provides deep liquidity from day one.
• Morpho and AB are building borrowing and lending products around the tokenized stocks.
• This creates a flywheel of lending, borrowing, and yield generation – aiming to grow Base's DeFi TVL from ~$5 billion to over $100 billion.

The Neo-Broker Opportunity

• The product is especially aimed at neo-banks worldwide, enabling them to offer stock trading, credit, and yield products without costly legacy integrations.
• Coinbase envisions Base as the backend for a global financial super app: one API for saving, spending, investing, and borrowing.

Vision & Outlook

• Long-term goal: bring all world currencies on-chain. Base already supports 22–23 non-dollar stablecoins and hosts the largest FX markets on-chain.
• Further building blocks include portfolio lines of credit, seamless on-ramps, and the ability to tokenize stocks directly from traditional brokerages.
• Jesse's key message: "We have all the pieces now – we just have to put them together." The next wave of innovation will be driven by combining AI, programmable assets, and global payment networks.