Welcome to Nofinity

Experienced investor Michael Burry is building strong positions in beaten-down stocks („falling knives“) while shorting overvalued tech stocks. His focus is on companies with high trading volume and new shareholders, which may signal a bottoming process.

Strong Buys

• Mercado Libre (MELI): The stock is down about 30 % over the past year, with a P/E ratio of 43, down from 100–150. If growth continues at 30 %, the business could quadruple in four years. Risks include capital outflows from Latin America.
• Adobe (ADBE): The stock fell from over $600 to below $200, with a P/E ratio of 11. The company grows at 8–10 %, and a recovery to a P/E of 20 could double the stock. Adobe benefits from its strong enterprise market position and AI copyright protection via Firefly.
• Fiserv (FISV): 56 % decline over five years, P/E of 8. The company generates $4 billion in free cash flow annually. Achieving earnings targets could lead to a stock price of $150–160 (3x return).
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Down 70 %, P/E of 9. The company is debt-free, profitable, and growing in China. A turnaround in North America could boost the stock by 50 %. Fashion risks remain.
• Zoetis (ZTS): Stable numbers, high return on invested capital, and a good pipeline. Burry sees potential, though the analyst does not deeply analyze pharma stocks.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV): Stock down 50 %, but the company continues to grow profitably with increasing cash flow. Valuation is historically cheap.
• PayPal (PYPL): P/E of 8, with $6 billion in buybacks annually. Growth is stagnant at 3 %, and buybacks could be destructive if the business declines. However, the company remains profitable.

Short Positions

• Tesla (TSLA), Palantir (PLTR), Oracle (ORCL), Nvidia (NVDA) (puts), and Nasdaq 100 (puts)
• These shorts act as a hedge against a market crash and the AI “super bubble.” Burry believes the inflated valuations (e.g., Palantir with an absurdly high revenue multiple) are unsustainable.

Strategic Overview

Burry combines value investing with a hedging strategy. The long positions offer potential for 2x to 10x returns during a recovery, while the shorts aim to offset losses in a bear market. Analyst Sven Carlin finds the strategy interesting but prefers a more concentrated selection of the top three positions.

In this interview, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX, Maelstrom) discusses current market moves and his thesis of an impending AI credit bubble.

Bitcoin Rally and Debt Crisis

• The recent Bitcoin rally above $69,000 was triggered by a US Treasury buyback upsize for long-dated bonds.
• Key takeaway: This signals an implicit yield curve control (like Japan). The US will finance its debt at any cost – through money printing.
• Bitcoin is the purest hedge against this debasement. Hayes expects a long-term target of $1 million per Bitcoin.

AI as the Next 2008 Crash

• Hayes sees the AI infrastructure boom as a credit bubble modeled on the 2008 housing crisis.
• The phases:
  1. Overbuild: Hyperscalers build data centers with borrowed money.
  2. Credit Stress: These are real estate developers, not tech companies. Their debt is packaged into opaque securities.
  3. Bailout: The state will rescue the bubble with more money printing, boosting Bitcoin further.

Flop Labs: The Economy for AI Agents

• The Problem: AI agents need a currency directly convertible to compute (FLOPS) – not fiat or stablecoins controlled by humans.
• The Solution Flop: A blockchain network creating a global spot market for computing power.
  • Mining: Anyone can offer GPU power and earn FLOP tokens (block subsidy).
  • Usage: Agents pay with FLOP for compute and can store their "memories" (context) there.
  • Token Incentive: Initially, compute is almost given away to create network effects.
• Success Metric: The amount of inference processed (actual compute work done).

Price Predictions and Outlook

• Bitcoin (in 12 months): Above $200,000.
• Ethereum: Between $5,000 and $10,000 – Hayes sees ETH as the best risk-reward trade in crypto due to its weak performance.
• His thesis would be wrong if AI enthusiasm fades entirely and agents are not used.

This video explores the Better Vessel, a tool that helped a Filipino barista achieve the highest espresso scores at the 2025 World Barista Championship.

• Three parts: A top chilling sphere (added by the creator, not official), a double-walled main vessel, and a movable base with a stand.
• How it works: Espresso is pulled into the vessel, left to rest for 15-20 seconds, then placed on the final cup – the sphere lifts, trapping the crema while the clear espresso flows through.

• Crema is bitter – it's an emulsion of oils, fines, and CO2.
• Removing it yields a sweeter, more acidic, and silkier shot.

• The creator pulls a double shot: half normally (with crema), half with the Better Vessel (without crema).
• The Better Vessel shot: smoother mouthfeel, more prominent fruit flavors, less bitterness – almost like fruit juice.

• In barista competitions, judges award points for undisturbed crema on the surface.
• The Better Vessel allows competitors to show perfect crema, then quickly remove it – a major time-saver (12 drinks in 15 minutes).

• Pros: Fast cooling, effective crema separation, easy to use.
• Cons: Expensive, limited production, single-shot capacity, fragile 3D-printed base (can crack).

• Not a necessity, but a fun way to experience espresso differently. Traditionalists may still prefer the classic shot with crema.

No imperial units to convert; all measurements remain as in the original.

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