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Latest Analyses(6)

The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over
Benjamin Cowen|17. Aug.

The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over

🔍 Analysis: The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over

In this video, Benjamin Cowen argues that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is finished and that a new rate-hiking cycle has already begun globally.

📉 Labor Market: Mixed Signals
  • Employment dropped by 23,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
  • Labor force participation is declining sharply, keeping unemployment low. Job openings have normalized to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Layoffs remain low – no imminent recession risk.
💹 Inflation & Bond Markets
  • Inflation is not fully tamed; rising oil prices could push CPI higher again.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield is climbing toward 5%, as markets fear reaccelerating inflation (not a recession).
🏦 Fed & Other Central Banks
  • The Fed hasn't moved rates since 2025. Cowen expects a token 25 bps hike – either in September or December 2026.
  • Many other central banks (Eurozone, Australia, Japan, New Zealand) have already raised rates. The GDP-weighted policy rate is rising worldwide.
📈 Market Outlook
  • A rate hike is not the end of the world – it signals a strong economy. Historically (e.g., the 1990s), rate hikes caused only short corrections.
  • Cowen predicts a 10–20% stock market correction, starting in September/October.
  • For Bitcoin, this could mark the cycle bottom before the next bull run.

Key takeaway: The rate-cutting cycle is over – investors should prepare for stable to slightly rising rates, which can create long-term opportunities.

Note: The „Investing Through The Cycles“ conference is scheduled for November 21, 2026. Ticket prices increase after September 1.

SOURCE