Bankless|13. Mai
Will AI Populism Decide the 2028 Election? | Jasmine Sun
AI Populism: A Rising Political Force in the US
In this episode of Bankless, David Hoffman talks to journalist Jasmine Sun (The Atlantic, NYT) about the emerging phenomenon of AI populism – a worldview that sees AI not as neutral technology, but as an elite political project to be resisted.
Definition and Current Significance
- Definition: AI populism is a political movement viewing AI as a threat to jobs, society, and democracy, targeting the 'AI elite'.
- Current Relevance (2025/2026): According to polls (Blue Rose Research), AI ranks 29th out of 40 major political issues but is the fastest-rising issue. It's not primary yet, but growing rapidly.
- Unlikely Alliances: The movement unites unusual coalitions like conservatives, environmentalists, and antitrust activists for AI regulation. AI regulation.
Why is AI Populism so Strong?
- Political Opportunism: Politicians like Bernie Sanders use AI as a new argument for long-standing goals (higher wages, universal healthcare). AI becomes a 'bogeyman' for existing problems like inequality and inflation.
- Self-Reinforcing Narratives: Industry leaders like Dario Amodei (Anthropic) publicly predict massive job losses. These warnings from within the industry lend credibility to the populist message.
- Credibility of Actors: Unlike crypto (e.g., Elizabeth Warren's 'anti-crypto army'), AI warnings are more relatable as AI is already pervasive (fastest-growing app ever, significant GDP share).
- Lack of Democratic Channels: Citizens feel powerless over AI development. This frustration leads to protests and even political violence (attacks on Sam Altman's home). Sun argues this stems from nihilism and distrust in democracy.
The Future of Work: Job Loss or Transformation?
- Steelman Case (Dario Amodei): AI will cause 20% unemployment. The core idea: Capital no longer needs human labor as AI tokens can replace it.
- Counter-Argument (Lump of Labor Fallacy / Mark Andreessen): History (e.g., ATMs) shows technology creates more jobs (via new demand, cheaper services). AI is seen as a deflationary force.
- Nuanced View (Jasmine Sun): Expects near-term disruption for ~5-10% of jobs in digital sectors (software, design, marketing). She draws parallels to de-industrialization: displaced workers (e.g., steelworkers) didn't easily retrain, causing political backlash. She predicts the same for white-collar workers now.
The Political Landscape and Solutions
- Feared Conflict: Sun fears a split between 'Techno-Capitalist Elites' (pro-AI) and a broad, popular bloc (anti-AI) spanning both parties.
- Partisan Leanings: Democrats might become the anti-AI party as their base (young, educated workers) is most vulnerable. Republicans are more pro-AI but divided.
- Proposals for a 'Grand Bargain: To harness AI's benefits without social strife, Sun suggests:
- Longer unemployment insurance (12-24 months) for retraining.
- Higher capital gains taxes on AI companies.
- Shorter work week (e.g., 30 hours) to distribute work.
- New bargaining tables where companies (e.g., Waymo/Google) negotiate fair transitions with affected workers (e.g., taxi drivers).
- Personal Strategy for Workers: Instead of fighting AI, workers should find their **comparative advantage – things AI cannot do well (e.g., building trust, on-the-ground reporting).
