Welcome to Nofinity

Core thesis

The US Dollar (DXY) is set to rise in the short term contrary to the consensus view, before eventually losing purchasing power over the long run.

Why the dollar could go higher

• Historical patterns: Under Trump, the dollar tends to repeat its first-term behaviour – a spike early in the term, a sell-off, and then a grind higher toward the midterm year.
• Rate hikes ahead: The Fed may have to raise rates again because inflation (especially energy) is not yet under control.
• 2-Year yield correlation: The dollar often follows the 2-year Treasury yield, which has recently bounced more strongly.
• Global rate movements: Other central banks (Europe, Japan, New Zealand, Australia) have already started hiking – a sign the US may follow.

Impact on other markets

• A stronger dollar creates headwinds for Bitcoin and equities.
• An expected move to 105–106 could trigger a final correction this year.

Conclusion

The dollar has short-term upside despite long-term erosion. The market may be surprised by a rate hike and a subsequent dollar rally.

📉 Bitcoin: Stuck Between Stagnation and Potential

• Price Action: Bitcoin hovers around $63-64k, far below the short-term holder realized price of $67,745. Buyers are cautious.
• Demand: The 30-day apparent demand is about to turn positive. Historically, this led to an 80% chance of an 18% gain.
• Supply: A massive supply wall of 1.8 million BTC at $63k has contained price for months.
• Long-Term Holders: They are holding firm; selling pressure is weak. High-conviction buyers (whales) are accumulating, reminiscent of the 2022 bottom.
• ETFs: Slight recovery with $137M inflows, but inconsistent.

🔍 On-Chain Metrics & Sentiment

• Fear & Greed Index: 41 (Fear) – highest in months, but still not optimistic.
• Accumulation Trends: Resemble the 2022 bottom – a bullish signal.
• Short-Term Holders: About 5% underwater; pain threshold near.
• Miners: Continue selling as they rotate into AI compute (e.g., Riot Platforms & Anthropic deal) – 3-4x higher profits there.

🚀 AI and Agentic Explosion

• AI Agents: Growth is exploding – e.g., legal AI agents up 108x in 6 months. Sales, accounting, medicine follow.
• Anthropic: Annualized revenue soared from $1B to $74B (Jan 2025 – Jul 2026) – 74x. IPO could be largest ever ($2 trillion).
• Solana: Handles 67% of all crypto transactions (1.2B daily) – 5,000% more than Ethereum. Fast, cheap, finality in milliseconds – ideal for AI agents.
• Power Demand: Biggest bottleneck for AI. SpaceX plans 10-GW data centers by 2027; Elon Musk aims for records.
• GitHub: Microsoft's platform constantly down; SpaceX switches to its own – a sign of legacy issues.

📊 Other Market News

• US Debt Interest: $1.4 trillion annually – more than Bitcoin's market cap. A death spiral.
• Leopold: Biggest trading loss ever ($35B) – risk is real.
• Active vs. Passive Funds: 82% of active managers underperform S&P 500 – money flows into passive ETFs (self-fulfilling for large caps).
• Altcoins: Solana, Ethereum, Hype, Chainlink outperformed Bitcoin in 90 days – but euphoria premature.

🔮 Outlook

Key is money flow: if ETFs and whales keep buying, demand could flip and drive Bitcoin to $73k+. September is historically bearish – but the AI revolution may override. Not financial advice.

🎯 Six Ways to Brew Espresso: From Normal to Sprover

This video demonstrates how to use your standard espresso machine (e.g., Gaggia Classic, De'Longhi, Breville) to make a variety of coffee drinks. From classic espresso to a filter coffee substitute, here are the six methods:

1. Normale – The Classic

• Ratio: 1:2 (coffee to water)
• Extraction Time: 25–30 seconds
• Grind Size: Medium (e.g., setting 1)
• TDS (Concentration): 9–12% – balanced, ideal for dark roasts.
• Taste: Perfect balance, good body.

2. Ristretto – Shorter and More Intense

• Ratio: 1:1 to 1:1.5
• Extraction: Same grind size, but stopped earlier.
• TDS: 12–15% → very concentrated.
• Taste: Syrupy, sweet-sour, long-lasting mouthfeel.
• Note: For light roasts, a powerful grinder is needed.

3. Lungo – Longer and Milder

• Ratio: 1:3 to 1:4
• Extraction Time: Longer than normale (same grind size).
• TDS: ~7% → much more diluted.
• Taste: Smoother, less intense, but risk of astringency (dry mouthfeel).
• Tip: Better to make a Ristretto + hot water than to extract directly longer.

4. Allongé – French for 'long' (modern version)

• Ratio: 1:5 to 1:6
• Extraction Time: 30–40 seconds
• Grind Size: Significantly coarser (e.g., setting 1.3).
• Pressure: Peaks at 8 bar, then drops.
• TDS: 3.5–5.5% → between filter coffee and espresso.
• Taste: Fruity, bright, little bitterness. Recommended for light roasts at lower temperatures (~85°C).

5. Turbo Shot – The Quick Treat

• Ratio: 1:3
• Extraction Time: 7–15 seconds (!)
• Grind Size: Even coarser (e.g., setting 1.5).
• Pressure: Reaches only ~5–6 bar – no special setup required.
• TDS: ~6.6%.
• Taste: Extremely fruity and aromatic, high acid presentation, but not sour. Gentle on the grinder due to coarser grind.
• Note: Don't be fooled by splatters – it's normal!

6. Sprover / Café Crème – The Filter Coffee Replacement

• Ratio: 1:8 to 1:12 (here 1:11)
• Extraction Time: Fast due to very coarse grind.
• Grind Size: Significantly coarser than all others (e.g., setting 2.5).
• TDS: 1.5–2.5% – very thin, almost like filter coffee.
• Taste: Watery, but surprisingly low in astringency. Foam resembles moka pot foam.
• Tip: Use lower temperature (80–85°C) and/or a paper filter in the portafilter for more clarity.

🔍 Verdict of the Day

Concentration (TDS) and extraction level heavily depend on grind size, temperature, and ratio. The YouTuber personally favors the Turbo Shot for its freshness and fruitiness. But whether you prefer Normale, Ristretto, or Sprover – the most important thing is that you enjoy it!

Introduction: Uber as Ackman's Top Bet

• Investor Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) considers Uber a strong buy with a favorable risk-reward profile.
• Uber is seen as a potential "next Amazon" in logistics and delivery services.

Business Model & Growth

• Rapid growth: 45% revenue growth this year, 22% growth in gross bookings.
• Strategy: Build a platform for autonomous vehicles, partnerships with Waymo, Lucid, Bolt, etc.
• Expansion into food delivery (e.g., Delivery Hero) and integration of all services into one app.

Financials & Valuation

• Now profitable for the first time, P/E ratio ~16, near all-time lows.
• Free cash flow estimated at ~$8B (after stock-based compensation ~$4B).
• Own valuation model yields an intrinsic value of $118 (assuming 20% growth for 5 years), current price ~$70.
• In the optimistic (Amazon-like) scenario, a multibagger to $150–200 is possible.

Risks

• Disintermediation: Autonomous vehicle fleets could bypass Uber as a middleman.
• Regulatory risks: Labor issues (UK) and potential price controls.
• Competition: Strong rivalry in China and Brazil; risk of Uber becoming a commodity.
• High investments: $10B planned in coming years; stock-based compensation dilutes shareholders.

Conclusion

• Positive risk-reward: 2–3x in 2–3 years if autonomy stays niche; up to 10x in a breakthrough.
• Downside risk: up to 50% loss if the platform model fails.
• The analyst does not invest personally (lacks margin of safety) but recommends it for risk-tolerant portfolios.

Europe's Economic Model Is Breaking Down

The transcript analyzes the collapse of Europe's post-1990s economic model, which relied on three external pillars: cheap Russian pipeline gas, German industrial engineering, Chinese demand, and US security guarantees. All three have failed simultaneously.

1. Energy Cost Crisis

• Gas prices: Dutch TTF benchmark traded at €50–59 per MWh (approx. $55–65/MWh) in August 2026. US Henry Hub gas was $2.80 per MMBTU (converted: $9.56 per MWh). European industrial users pay 5–7 times more than US competitors.
• Electricity: EU large consumers pay 15–18 cents/kWh vs. 7–8 cents in the US and 6–9 cents in China. For energy-intensive industries (chemicals, steel, aluminum), energy is the primary cost driver.
• Impact: German energy-intensive production fell 15% between Feb 2022 and March 2026. A Draghi report estimates Europe's total energy cost disadvantage vs. the US at €800 billion per year.

2. Deindustrialization in Real Time

• BASF: Cut 7,000 jobs globally, two-thirds in Europe. Headcount at Ludwigshafen fell below 30,000 (lowest since 1954). Meanwhile, BASF opened an €8.7 billion complex in Zhangjiagang, China – its largest single investment ever.
• Volkswagen: Closed a German plant for the first time in 88 years (2026); four more sites with 45,000 employees are at risk. Costs are 20% above rivals. Chinese brands (e.g., BYD) captured 9–11% of Europe's new car market.
• Aluminum: EU primary output dropped from 4.3 million tons (2021) to 3.2 million tons (2025/26) – a 25% contraction.

3. The Index vs. Real Economy Divergence

• The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 22% year-on-year (S&P 500: 20%), DAX up 9.6%. But this reflects profits from global operations, not European production.
• BASF shares are down 25% over 5 years; VW preferred shares down 64%. Shareholders benefit while factory workers in Ludwigshafen and Wolfsburg lose out.

4. Political Fragmentation & Fiscal Stress

• France: Budget deficit exceeded €17 billion in H1 2026, interest payments up 19%. S&P and Fitch downgraded France to A+. Debt projected at 121% of GDP by 2028. Net loss of 800 millionaires in 2025.
• Germany: Coalition satisfaction at 12–14%; AfD polled at 29% nationally (42% in Saxony). Farmer protests across France, Germany, Netherlands.
• North-South & East-West divides: Deadlock over deficits, migration, defense.

5. Policy Responses: Cash Limits, Digital Euro, Crypto Crackdown

• Cash: EU-wide limit of €10,000 from July 2027 (France: €1,000; Netherlands: €3,000). Petition with 350k signatures rejected.
• Digital euro: Launch penciled in for 2029; a €3,000 holding limit under discussion. Infrastructure costs €265 million.
• Crypto: MiCA regulation forced Tether (USDT) off European exchanges; licensed crypto firms dropped from 3,000 to 321.
• Stablecoins: Euro-denominated stablecoins lost 86 percentage points of card market share to dollar tokens (USDC, USDT), which now account for 84% of crypto card spending. ECB warns of currency substitution.

6. Outlook

Europe's economic model is broken. Capital is deployed abroad, plants are kept open for political rather than economic reasons, and policymakers are managing decline. Without drastic change, the pattern of deindustrialization, political fragmentation, and financial repression will continue.

💡 The Big Moves of the Investing Elite (13F Filings Q2 2025)

Recent 13F filings from the world's most successful investors reveal clear trends: AI remains the dominant theme, with a focus on hyperscalers, memory chips, and energy. Here are the detailed insights.

👑 The Top Decisions of the Five Stars

• Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway): The biggest buy was Alphabet (increased by 83%). Sells included Delta Airlines, Bank of America, and Kroger. Additionally, Bill Gates sold 14% of his Berkshire stake.
• Stanley Druckenmiller: Strong focus on AI with buys of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Taiwan Semiconductor. He sold Broadcom, among others.
• Peter Thiel: Concentrates entirely on Amazon and the energy sector. His largest new bet: Vista Energy (an oil producer in Argentina).
• Bill Ackman: His largest new position is Netflix. Other buys: Visa, S&P Global. He sold Alphabet and Amazon to finance Microsoft.
• Leopold Aschenbrenner: Clear AI and chip focus with buys of Micron, Sandisk, and Taiwan Semi. Sells included Nvidia, Oracle, and Broadcom.

🔍 Three Key Learnings

1. Hyperscalers Are in Demand: Buffett, Thiel, and Druckenmiller are betting heavily on cloud giants. The rationale: Despite high capex, cash flows are expected to surge as AI drives cloud revenue growth (e.g., +80%).
2. The Chip Bet (Especially Memory) Is Alive: Elon Musk's statement "The limiting factor is memory" underscores the trend. Demand for memory chips is growing 200% per year, while production only increases by 20%. Rents for older AI chips (A100) are also rising, confirming persistent scarcity.
3. The Insatiable Hunger for Energy: AI development is massively boosting data center power consumption. Forecasts see demand rising 172% to 258 TWh by 2027, creating a huge energy gap and investment opportunities in the energy sector.

💊 Two Key Biotech Bets

• Natera: Druckenmiller's largest position. The company develops blood tests for pregnancy, early cancer detection, and transplant rejection monitoring.
• Guardant Health: A personal favorite of the analyst. Their "Shield" test is a simple blood test for cancer screening (e.g., colorectal cancer). Their strength lies in covering the entire cancer journey from early detection to relapse monitoring. The data from over 1 million tests is also valuable for AI.

Important Note: The 13F data has a time lag (snapshot date June 30, 2025) and is not investment advice. Always do your own research!