Welcome to Nofinity

📅 Changes in September 2026: Shorter Return Period, Interest Rate Hike & More

Amazon Shortens Return Period

• From September, 16 product categories will have only 14 days to return (previously 30).
• Affected: baby products, beauty, drugstore, leisure items, mobile electronics, musical instruments.
• Exceptions (still 30 days): clothing, shoes, watches, jewelry, Amazon devices.
• Important: You must initiate the return within 14 days of receipt, then have another 14 days to ship.
• Transition: Orders arriving by October 1 still follow the old rule.

ECB Interest Rate Decision on September 10

• Market expects 91 % probability of a rate hike from 2.25 % to 2.5 %.
• Reason: Eurozone inflation at 2.9 % remains above the 2 % target.
• Consequence: Savings account rates may rise at some banks.

Tax Assistance Associations: More Flexible

• Previously, employees could only earn up to €18,000 in additional income (e.g., rental, capital gains) to qualify for help.
• This limit is removed – retirees with high capital gains can now use this affordable tax service.
• Membership fee: varies by income and region (e.g., €130/year for €50,000 income in NRW).

Alcohol Ban at Train Stations (Deutsche Bahn)

• Starting September 1 at Berlin Hbf, Berlin Gesundbrunnen, Kiel, and Braunschweig.
• Nationwide by October 15.
• Allowed: Alcohol in restaurants, sealed bottles in luggage. Prohibited: Consumption in station areas.

EU Fights Greenwashing

• From September 27, environmental claims like „climate neutral“ must be verifiable.
• Vague statements without proof are banned – risk of cease-and-desist letters for businesses!

New EU Label for Warranty & Guarantee

• Unified label informs about statutory warranty (2 years) and voluntary manufacturer guarantee (duration specified).

TVÖD: Convert Bonus into Vacation

• Public sector employees can buy up to 3 extra vacation days from 2027 – application deadline September 1.
• Price: average daily tariff wage (averaged over July–September).

📌 Tip: Check linked videos for savings account comparisons or the retirement savings account (starting 2027).

The Core Issue: GPU Value Plummets vs. Long-Term Debt

• GPUs lose value rapidly: An Nvidia H100 chip rented for ~$8/hour in early 2024 but fell to $2–3 by late 2025 – a 50–70% collapse in under two years. After three years, resale value drops to roughly half the original price.
• Debt runs for decades: Financing for AI infrastructure has maturities of 5, 10, 15 years – one vehicle for Meta‘s Hyperion campus doesn‘t mature until 2049.

How Wall Street Hides the Debt

• Off-balance-sheet financing: Companies like Meta, Oracle, and Anthropic use special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to keep debt off their books. Example: Big Net Investors LLC (Meta) – $27 billion in debt secured by lease payments but not on Meta’s balance sheet.
• Private credit explosion: From virtually nothing to over $200 billion in outstanding loans to AI companies. The top five hyperscalers issued $121 billion in corporate bonds in 2025 alone – four times the prior annual average.
• Securitization like 2006: Structured finance products (e.g., asset-backed securities) are issued where credit ratings depend on the paying tenant, not the underlying asset (GPU). Moody‘s downgraded a CoreWeave facility because the end customer was weaker.

The Most Leveraged Position: Bitcoin Miners

• Bitcoin miners transform into AI landlords: They sign long-term leases (12–20 years) to survive, as mining costs ($75,000–$88,000 per Bitcoin) often exceed the price. They have disclosed over $70 billion in AI contracts and sold thousands of Bitcoins to fund the shift.
• Dramatic leverage: Miners finance their conversion ($8–15 million per megawatt) with high-yield debt secured by GPUs that rapidly depreciate. Core Scientific posted a $347 million net loss in Q1 2026 despite growing AI revenue.
• Chain reaction risk: If GPU values fall faster than debt can be refinanced, losses hit the miners first – and they are publicly traded, directly in portfolios.

Warning Signs and Parallels to 2008

• Credit default swaps (CDS) spike: CoreWeave‘s CDS implied a 50% probability of default within five years in July 2026, while some bond tranches still carried investment-grade ratings. Michael Burry warned of “parabolic” CDS on Nvidia.
• Moody‘s raises alarm: AI spending threatens credit quality at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, and CoreWeave. These six firms carry $460 billion in direct debt and $1.2 trillion in lease commitments.
• US senators call for regulation: In January 2026, four senators asked regulators to examine opaque debt markets.

Bottom Line: No Sudden Bust, but a Gradual Shift

• The structure ensures losses don‘t hit the big hyperscalers but trickle down to the weakest links – the miners and their investors.
• The AI bubble doesn‘t need to burst; it‘s enough if hardware ages faster than debt is repaid. Then it‘s “look out below.”

Overview

Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) released a new letter with six new purchases. The analyst examines each position, evaluating opportunities and risks.

Strategy & Performance

• Ackman targets cheap growth stocks with low P/E ratios and high growth – better than the S&P 500.
• However, he has underperformed the market since 2012 (S&P 500: ~15% p.a., Ackman: low double digits).
• High fees (1.5% management + 16% performance) cause a persistent discount to NAV.

New Positions & Analysis

• Brookfield: Risky growth chase. Earnings grow via leverage, not real cash flows – similar to private equity. Vulnerable to shocks.
• Microsoft: AI bet. 70% of growth comes from two customers (circular financing). If AI growth slows, 60–70% downside is possible.
• Amazon: More reasonable valuation. AWS grows strongly, conservative intrinsic value near current price. But the analyst prefers waiting for a better entry (e.g., $90 years ago).
• Howard Hughes: Insurance vehicle for AI investments. Deemed too risky (Buffett avoids big insurance deals now).
• Restaurant Brands: Relies on buybacks and multiple expansion (P/E from 20 to 30). Relatively cheap, but not absolute value.
• Meta: Cheapest hyperscaler. At conservative assumptions (8% growth, P/E 20) already fairly valued. Ackman expects 20% growth – then a potential doubling, but risky.
• Visa: Solid business, P/E 30. Fair value at 10% growth, extra returns if faster. Good margin of safety.
• Intercontinental Exchange, Alcon: Steady growers, not analyzed in depth.

Conclusion

Ackman is doubling down on AI bets and cyclical growth stocks. His holdings are relatively cheap vs. the market, but not absolute value. The analyst sees risks from shocks (recession, AI bubble). Investors should consider the high fees and avoid blindly following.

Core thesis

The US Dollar (DXY) is set to rise in the short term contrary to the consensus view, before eventually losing purchasing power over the long run.

Why the dollar could go higher

• Historical patterns: Under Trump, the dollar tends to repeat its first-term behaviour – a spike early in the term, a sell-off, and then a grind higher toward the midterm year.
• Rate hikes ahead: The Fed may have to raise rates again because inflation (especially energy) is not yet under control.
• 2-Year yield correlation: The dollar often follows the 2-year Treasury yield, which has recently bounced more strongly.
• Global rate movements: Other central banks (Europe, Japan, New Zealand, Australia) have already started hiking – a sign the US may follow.

Impact on other markets

• A stronger dollar creates headwinds for Bitcoin and equities.
• An expected move to 105–106 could trigger a final correction this year.

Conclusion

The dollar has short-term upside despite long-term erosion. The market may be surprised by a rate hike and a subsequent dollar rally.

📉 Bitcoin: Stuck Between Stagnation and Potential

• Price Action: Bitcoin hovers around $63-64k, far below the short-term holder realized price of $67,745. Buyers are cautious.
• Demand: The 30-day apparent demand is about to turn positive. Historically, this led to an 80% chance of an 18% gain.
• Supply: A massive supply wall of 1.8 million BTC at $63k has contained price for months.
• Long-Term Holders: They are holding firm; selling pressure is weak. High-conviction buyers (whales) are accumulating, reminiscent of the 2022 bottom.
• ETFs: Slight recovery with $137M inflows, but inconsistent.

🔍 On-Chain Metrics & Sentiment

• Fear & Greed Index: 41 (Fear) – highest in months, but still not optimistic.
• Accumulation Trends: Resemble the 2022 bottom – a bullish signal.
• Short-Term Holders: About 5% underwater; pain threshold near.
• Miners: Continue selling as they rotate into AI compute (e.g., Riot Platforms & Anthropic deal) – 3-4x higher profits there.

🚀 AI and Agentic Explosion

• AI Agents: Growth is exploding – e.g., legal AI agents up 108x in 6 months. Sales, accounting, medicine follow.
• Anthropic: Annualized revenue soared from $1B to $74B (Jan 2025 – Jul 2026) – 74x. IPO could be largest ever ($2 trillion).
• Solana: Handles 67% of all crypto transactions (1.2B daily) – 5,000% more than Ethereum. Fast, cheap, finality in milliseconds – ideal for AI agents.
• Power Demand: Biggest bottleneck for AI. SpaceX plans 10-GW data centers by 2027; Elon Musk aims for records.
• GitHub: Microsoft's platform constantly down; SpaceX switches to its own – a sign of legacy issues.

📊 Other Market News

• US Debt Interest: $1.4 trillion annually – more than Bitcoin's market cap. A death spiral.
• Leopold: Biggest trading loss ever ($35B) – risk is real.
• Active vs. Passive Funds: 82% of active managers underperform S&P 500 – money flows into passive ETFs (self-fulfilling for large caps).
• Altcoins: Solana, Ethereum, Hype, Chainlink outperformed Bitcoin in 90 days – but euphoria premature.

🔮 Outlook

Key is money flow: if ETFs and whales keep buying, demand could flip and drive Bitcoin to $73k+. September is historically bearish – but the AI revolution may override. Not financial advice.

🎯 Six Ways to Brew Espresso: From Normal to Sprover

This video demonstrates how to use your standard espresso machine (e.g., Gaggia Classic, De'Longhi, Breville) to make a variety of coffee drinks. From classic espresso to a filter coffee substitute, here are the six methods:

1. Normale – The Classic

• Ratio: 1:2 (coffee to water)
• Extraction Time: 25–30 seconds
• Grind Size: Medium (e.g., setting 1)
• TDS (Concentration): 9–12% – balanced, ideal for dark roasts.
• Taste: Perfect balance, good body.

2. Ristretto – Shorter and More Intense

• Ratio: 1:1 to 1:1.5
• Extraction: Same grind size, but stopped earlier.
• TDS: 12–15% → very concentrated.
• Taste: Syrupy, sweet-sour, long-lasting mouthfeel.
• Note: For light roasts, a powerful grinder is needed.

3. Lungo – Longer and Milder

• Ratio: 1:3 to 1:4
• Extraction Time: Longer than normale (same grind size).
• TDS: ~7% → much more diluted.
• Taste: Smoother, less intense, but risk of astringency (dry mouthfeel).
• Tip: Better to make a Ristretto + hot water than to extract directly longer.

4. Allongé – French for 'long' (modern version)

• Ratio: 1:5 to 1:6
• Extraction Time: 30–40 seconds
• Grind Size: Significantly coarser (e.g., setting 1.3).
• Pressure: Peaks at 8 bar, then drops.
• TDS: 3.5–5.5% → between filter coffee and espresso.
• Taste: Fruity, bright, little bitterness. Recommended for light roasts at lower temperatures (~85°C).

5. Turbo Shot – The Quick Treat

• Ratio: 1:3
• Extraction Time: 7–15 seconds (!)
• Grind Size: Even coarser (e.g., setting 1.5).
• Pressure: Reaches only ~5–6 bar – no special setup required.
• TDS: ~6.6%.
• Taste: Extremely fruity and aromatic, high acid presentation, but not sour. Gentle on the grinder due to coarser grind.
• Note: Don't be fooled by splatters – it's normal!

6. Sprover / Café Crème – The Filter Coffee Replacement

• Ratio: 1:8 to 1:12 (here 1:11)
• Extraction Time: Fast due to very coarse grind.
• Grind Size: Significantly coarser than all others (e.g., setting 2.5).
• TDS: 1.5–2.5% – very thin, almost like filter coffee.
• Taste: Watery, but surprisingly low in astringency. Foam resembles moka pot foam.
• Tip: Use lower temperature (80–85°C) and/or a paper filter in the portafilter for more clarity.

🔍 Verdict of the Day

Concentration (TDS) and extraction level heavily depend on grind size, temperature, and ratio. The YouTuber personally favors the Turbo Shot for its freshness and fruitiness. But whether you prefer Normale, Ristretto, or Sprover – the most important thing is that you enjoy it!