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Latest Analyses(7)

Buffett Would Get Fired ASAP as an Investment Manager!
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.|16. Juli

Buffett Would Get Fired ASAP as an Investment Manager!

💡 A Paradox: Even the Legend Warren Buffett Would Be Fired
  • Warren Buffett is undeniably the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) with stellar performance: He crushed the S&P 500 with Berkshire Hathaway and did even better in his early partnerships—over seven decades averaging >20 % annual returns.

  • Shocking thesis: Despite this success, Buffett would be fired multiple times as an investment manager because he repeatedly goes through phases of extreme underperformance.

🔍 Three Concrete Examples of Firing Moments
  • 1969 – Self-closure: Buffett dissolved his partnerships because he saw no attractive investments. While others chased hype (SpaceX, AI, data centers), he stayed passive.
  • 2026/current – Berkshire holds $380 billion in cash (about 35 % of assets) and has been doing nothing for years—while the world chases AI, data centers, and space.
  • 1968 to 1974 – Berkshire stock stagnated from $38 to $39—7 years of no return. Instead, he bought a failing textile mill.
  • 1999 to 2000 – Berkshire lost > 40 % while NASDAQ surged +183 %. Who wouldn't fire their manager?
  • 1999 to 2009 – Berkshire delivered -30.4 % total return—while Treasury bonds yielded 6 % annually.
⚖ Key Message: „Nobody wants to get rich slow“ (Buffett in dialogue with Jeff Bezos)
  • Buffett’s lesson: Don’t panic over hype – NASDAQ is up 10x over 15 years, everyone chases SpaceX, Tesla, robotaxis, flying cars, drones. But such hype often destroys long-term wealth.
  • Actionable advice: Be your own GOAT. Stick to a long-term, patient strategy—and don’t let short-term irrationality shake you.
📈 Conclusion

Buffett’s career shows: Perfection every year is impossible. The art is staying disciplined over decades, even when you’re considered crazy.