Coin Bureau Podcast|01. Mai
Bitcoin’s Most Dangerous Months Are Here (Data Warning)
📊 Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Red May and June Ahead
This summary analyzes a video from 'The Better Traders,' which examines historical Bitcoin price action to identify patterns for the current bear market (2026). The creator introduces the 'Better Crypto Calendar,' a free tool for visualizing monthly returns.
🔑 Core Thesis: The 4-Year Cycle is Not Broken
- The video argues against the 'super cycle' theory, showing Bitcoin still adheres to a 4-year cycle: Rally, Top, Decline, Bottom (e.g., Top 2021 → Bottom 2022 → Recovery → Top 2025 → Bottom Year 2026).
- The analysis is based on historical data for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Total 2, and Total 3.
📉 Historical Patterns for Bear (Bottom) Years
The focus is on bear years 2014, 2018, and 2022 to create a roadmap for 2026. Average monthly returns suggest a difficult summer:
- May & June: Historically the weakest months. Average close-to-close losses in recent bear markets were -17% (May) and -25% (June).
- Volatility: Actual volatility (high-to-low or low-to-high) is even more extreme. In May, it averaged -31%, and in June -35%.
- Forecast: If April closes around $78,000, this could lead to a drop to approx. $53,000 (May) and further to approx. $47,000 (June).
- Warning: The creator expects a final drop to $38,555, a target he has held for months.
🐇 Dead Cat Bounce in July?
After a steep decline, bear markets often feature a relief rally ('Dead Cat Bounce').
- July: The average upside volatility was +35% in past bear years (e.g., 2018 and 2022). Caution: These recoveries followed massive sell-offs (e.g., -63% in 2022).
- August & September: Historically, further losses follow (-24% and -18.5% on average).
- The creator believes the true bottom will occur around October 2026, after an approximately 12-month bear market since the October 2025 top.
🧠 Key Takeaways
- No Guarantee: These are historical patterns, not predictions. The market can diverge.
- Strategy: The best strategy is not to short but to accumulate (buy coins). The capitulation phase is described as a "birthplace of millionaires."
- Tool: The 'Better Crypto Calendar' is a free analysis tool (link in video) for viewers to explore the data themselves.
