Welcome to Nofinity

• Markets get a boost from the Iran ceasefire and SpaceX, but are nervous about hawkish central banks and possible forced selling.
• Bitcoin broke above $67k but later retreated.
• SpaceX rallied sharply after its IPO; market cap now exceeds Russia's economy.

• First FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh: rates held at 3.50–3.75% as expected.
• Forward guidance was discontinued – markets now face more uncertainty.
• Hawkish tone: Price stability prioritized, rate hikes more likely than cuts.
• Dot plot: Median sees 2026 rate at 3.8% (up from 3.4%).
• Reaction: Dollar rose, Bitcoin sold off, yield curve bear-flattened.

• Bitcoin stuck between $62.5k and $66k.
• Bear pennant on daily chart – a breakdown could target $57k.
• Weekly CCI shows triple bullish divergence as an early signal.
• Resistance: $66k must be broken convincingly to open path to $70k.
• Long term: Bitcoin remains in a downtrend; caution on short-term pumps.

• Iran/USA: Ceasefire signed, Strait of Hormuz opened – oil prices fell.
• UK: Prime Minister resigned – sixth in ten years.
• Data this week:
  • Tuesday: Consumer confidence (prior: 92.8 – 3-year low).
  • Wednesday: Q1 2026 GDP (second estimate, expected 1.6% annualized).
  • Thursday: PCE inflation (core expected 3.3%; above 3.8% locks in a September rate hike).
  • Friday: Month-end portfolio rebalancing – up to $165B in forced selling possible.

• Strategy (MicroStrategy) bought another 520 BTC, but its perpetual preferred instrument STRC fell below $83 – potential selling pressure.
• Michael Saylor admitted he used ChatGPT to design STRC's structure – drew mockery.
• Iranian memes on Twitter considered superior.

• BOJ and yen near 40-year low vs. dollar – carry trade risk.
• Next FOMC in six weeks.

This video explores the Better Vessel, a tool that helped a Filipino barista achieve the highest espresso scores at the 2025 World Barista Championship.

• Three parts: A top chilling sphere (added by the creator, not official), a double-walled main vessel, and a movable base with a stand.
• How it works: Espresso is pulled into the vessel, left to rest for 15-20 seconds, then placed on the final cup – the sphere lifts, trapping the crema while the clear espresso flows through.

• Crema is bitter – it's an emulsion of oils, fines, and CO2.
• Removing it yields a sweeter, more acidic, and silkier shot.

• The creator pulls a double shot: half normally (with crema), half with the Better Vessel (without crema).
• The Better Vessel shot: smoother mouthfeel, more prominent fruit flavors, less bitterness – almost like fruit juice.

• In barista competitions, judges award points for undisturbed crema on the surface.
• The Better Vessel allows competitors to show perfect crema, then quickly remove it – a major time-saver (12 drinks in 15 minutes).

• Pros: Fast cooling, effective crema separation, easy to use.
• Cons: Expensive, limited production, single-shot capacity, fragile 3D-printed base (can crack).

• Not a necessity, but a fun way to experience espresso differently. Traditionalists may still prefer the classic shot with crema.

No imperial units to convert; all measurements remain as in the original.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

The speaker analyzes whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or if further declines are ahead. He compares the current market structure to historical cycles (2018, 2019, 2022) and highlights the uncertainty.

• Apathetic Top Instead of Euphoria: Unlike previous bull markets, 2024/2025 lacked a euphoric rally. This might mean a full market reset isn't necessary.
• Historical Parallels: Comparisons to 2019 show that after a 40% rally in two days, Bitcoin hit a new low 31 days later. Similarly, 2018 had three lower highs (around $9,000, $8,500, $7,400), mirrored by today's $90,000, $80,000, and $70,000 levels.
• 200-Day Moving Average: A sustained break above the 200-day MA would be bullish. Currently Bitcoin is about 10% above it, while in 2019 it reached 18% above before falling again.
• Macroeconomic Factors: The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and three Fed rate cuts mirror the 2019 environment. Political news (Trump/China) also drive short-term rallies.
• Strategy: The speaker advocates Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) over market timing. He buys Bitcoin below a risk metric of 0.3 but hasn't accumulated enough for the next bull market yet.
• Caution on Short-Term Rallies: Before the final bottom in every midterm year, a strong rally often occurred (e.g., 23% in six days in 2022) followed by a selloff.

The speaker remains neutral: both bullish and bearish signals exist. The key is whether Bitcoin holds above the 200-day MA in the next two weeks. He advises against shorting and emphasizes a disciplined DCA plan.

The analyst examines Bitcoin's recent surge of over $10,300 in 3.5 days and evaluates whether it's a genuine breakout or a fakeout using 18 charts and data points.

Key Indicators:

• Monthly Seasonality: August is typically flat, but this month shows +15.4% – unusually strong.
• ETF Inflows: Highest inflows in 4 months; every $1 billion in ETFs corresponds to a 3% Bitcoin price increase.
• RSI (Monthly): Dropped to 48% – historically a turning point when monthly close is above $63,000.
• Seller Exhaustion: Bitcoin holders selling at a loss reached record levels – a sign of a bottom.
• 200-Day Moving Average: Bitcoin was 300 days below it, now $45,000 above – bullish signal.
• Fear & Greed Index: Moved out of "extreme fear" for the first time since October 2025.

Bearish Views:

• Jim Cramer: Sold at $62,000 – classic contrarian indicator (since then +$10,000).
• Peter Brandt: Predicted $40,000 but bought the breakout above $72,000.
• Koshi: Still expects a drop to $52,000.

Conclusion:

The analyst considers the breakout likely real but warns of a possible fakeout. He recommends layered buying rather than waiting for a perfect dip. The data suggests a cycle shift, possibly accelerated by front-running from experienced investors.