Welcome to Nofinity

📉 Market Overview: Between Hope and Fear

• Markets get a boost from the Iran ceasefire and SpaceX, but are nervous about hawkish central banks and possible forced selling.
• Bitcoin broke above $67k but later retreated.
• SpaceX rallied sharply after its IPO; market cap now exceeds Russia's economy.

🏛️ Fed Under New Chair Kevin Warsh: Regime Change

• First FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh: rates held at 3.50–3.75% as expected.
• Forward guidance was discontinued – markets now face more uncertainty.
• Hawkish tone: Price stability prioritized, rate hikes more likely than cuts.
• Dot plot: Median sees 2026 rate at 3.8% (up from 3.4%).
• Reaction: Dollar rose, Bitcoin sold off, yield curve bear-flattened.

📊 Technical Analysis (Matt): Bitcoin Between Resistance and Support

• Bitcoin stuck between $62.5k and $66k.
• Bear pennant on daily chart – a breakdown could target $57k.
• Weekly CCI shows triple bullish divergence as an early signal.
• Resistance: $66k must be broken convincingly to open path to $70k.
• Long term: Bitcoin remains in a downtrend; caution on short-term pumps.

🌍 Geopolitical Events and Economic Data

• Iran/USA: Ceasefire signed, Strait of Hormuz opened – oil prices fell.
• UK: Prime Minister resigned – sixth in ten years.
• Data this week:
  • Tuesday: Consumer confidence (prior: 92.8 – 3-year low).
  • Wednesday: Q1 2026 GDP (second estimate, expected 1.6% annualized).
  • Thursday: PCE inflation (core expected 3.3%; above 3.8% locks in a September rate hike).
  • Friday: Month-end portfolio rebalancing – up to $165B in forced selling possible.

💡 Other Key Points

• Strategy (MicroStrategy) bought another 520 BTC, but its perpetual preferred instrument STRC fell below $83 – potential selling pressure.
• Michael Saylor admitted he used ChatGPT to design STRC's structure – drew mockery.
• Iranian memes on Twitter considered superior.

📅 Dates to Watch

• BOJ and yen near 40-year low vs. dollar – carry trade risk.
• Next FOMC in six weeks.