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📉 Bitcoin Meltdown & Market Analysis (Week 26/2026)

This week was marked by a new cycle low for Bitcoin and more bad news for crypto and risk assets. Hosts Nick and Guy analyze the week's events and look at opportunities beyond crypto.

Bitcoin & Macro Events:

• New Cycle Low: Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to a new low of $58,713, breaking below the 200-week SMA (Simple Moving Average) for the first time since March 2023.
• BTC ETF Outflows: Weekly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs were the highest since their inception.
• Macro Pressure: US inflation (PCE) remained high, and the Yen weakened to a 40-year low (161.6). This puts pressure on global risk assets.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The US-Iran conflict remains volatile, with temporary ceasefires and renewed attacks, often occurring after market close.

Strategy (MicroStrategy) in Crisis:

• Michael Saylor did not buy any new Bitcoin. Instead, he increased cash reserves to $2.55 billion to service preferred bonds and authorized the sale of up to $1 billion in Bitcoin for stock buybacks. Markets reacted with initial relief.
• Strategy's MNAV (Net Asset Value Multiple) fell below 1, meaning the stock is worth less than its Bitcoin holdings.

EU Regulation: MiCA Deadline (July 1st)

• Only a limited number of firms received licenses. Binance withdrew its application in Greece and is re-applying in other countries. From July 1st, unlicensed exchanges must cease services for EU users.

🌡️ The Next Big Trade: HVAC & Cooling

Amidst an extreme heatwave in Europe, the air conditioning (HVAC) market is being viewed as a generational investment opportunity.

• Structural Demand: The IEA projects the number of AC units in the EU will grow from 130 million to 275 million by 2050.
• AI Data Centers: These are the biggest driver. Cooling accounts for 30-40% of a data center's energy consumption. AI chips generate 5-10x more heat than traditional servers.
• Investment Ideas:
  • Trane Technologies (TT): Data center client bookings increased by 24% in one quarter. Backlog will convert in H2 2026.
  • A. O. Smith (AOS): Pure-play data center cooling company. Backlog surged 160% to $1.62 billion, Q1 2026 sales up 54%.

🔮 Technical Analysis (TA) with Aaron

• Bitcoin: Short-term sideways between $59,000 and $60,000, but the macro trend is bearish. The on-chain realized price level of $53,400 is key support.
• S&P 500: Testing a key resistance level. A failure could drag the market lower.
• Stablecoin Dominance: Heading towards 13%, which could be an accumulation signal for altcoins.
• Key Level: 162 for the Yen/USD rate. A break could trigger global turmoil.

📅 Important Dates This Week

• Tuesday, June 30th: End of the MiCA grace period.
• Thursday, July 3rd: US Employment Data (Non-Farm Payrolls). A hot number confirms the hawkish Fed path; a weak one could trigger a rally.
• Friday, July 4th: US Independence Day (Markets closed).