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This week was marked by a new cycle low for Bitcoin and more bad news for crypto and risk assets. Hosts Nick and Guy analyze the week's events and look at opportunities beyond crypto.

Bitcoin & Macro Events:

• New Cycle Low: Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to a new low of $58,713, breaking below the 200-week SMA (Simple Moving Average) for the first time since March 2023.
• BTC ETF Outflows: Weekly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs were the highest since their inception.
• Macro Pressure: US inflation (PCE) remained high, and the Yen weakened to a 40-year low (161.6). This puts pressure on global risk assets.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The US-Iran conflict remains volatile, with temporary ceasefires and renewed attacks, often occurring after market close.

Strategy (MicroStrategy) in Crisis:

• Michael Saylor did not buy any new Bitcoin. Instead, he increased cash reserves to $2.55 billion to service preferred bonds and authorized the sale of up to $1 billion in Bitcoin for stock buybacks. Markets reacted with initial relief.
• Strategy's MNAV (Net Asset Value Multiple) fell below 1, meaning the stock is worth less than its Bitcoin holdings.

EU Regulation: MiCA Deadline (July 1st)

• Only a limited number of firms received licenses. Binance withdrew its application in Greece and is re-applying in other countries. From July 1st, unlicensed exchanges must cease services for EU users.

Amidst an extreme heatwave in Europe, the air conditioning (HVAC) market is being viewed as a generational investment opportunity.

• Structural Demand: The IEA projects the number of AC units in the EU will grow from 130 million to 275 million by 2050.
• AI Data Centers: These are the biggest driver. Cooling accounts for 30-40% of a data center's energy consumption. AI chips generate 5-10x more heat than traditional servers.
• Investment Ideas:
  • Trane Technologies (TT): Data center client bookings increased by 24% in one quarter. Backlog will convert in H2 2026.
  • A. O. Smith (AOS): Pure-play data center cooling company. Backlog surged 160% to $1.62 billion, Q1 2026 sales up 54%.

• Bitcoin: Short-term sideways between $59,000 and $60,000, but the macro trend is bearish. The on-chain realized price level of $53,400 is key support.
• S&P 500: Testing a key resistance level. A failure could drag the market lower.
• Stablecoin Dominance: Heading towards 13%, which could be an accumulation signal for altcoins.
• Key Level: 162 for the Yen/USD rate. A break could trigger global turmoil.

• Tuesday, June 30th: End of the MiCA grace period.
• Thursday, July 3rd: US Employment Data (Non-Farm Payrolls). A hot number confirms the hawkish Fed path; a weak one could trigger a rally.
• Friday, July 4th: US Independence Day (Markets closed).

In this interview, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX, Maelstrom) discusses current market moves and his thesis of an impending AI credit bubble.

Bitcoin Rally and Debt Crisis

• The recent Bitcoin rally above $69,000 was triggered by a US Treasury buyback upsize for long-dated bonds.
• Key takeaway: This signals an implicit yield curve control (like Japan). The US will finance its debt at any cost – through money printing.
• Bitcoin is the purest hedge against this debasement. Hayes expects a long-term target of $1 million per Bitcoin.

AI as the Next 2008 Crash

• Hayes sees the AI infrastructure boom as a credit bubble modeled on the 2008 housing crisis.
• The phases:
  1. Overbuild: Hyperscalers build data centers with borrowed money.
  2. Credit Stress: These are real estate developers, not tech companies. Their debt is packaged into opaque securities.
  3. Bailout: The state will rescue the bubble with more money printing, boosting Bitcoin further.

Flop Labs: The Economy for AI Agents

• The Problem: AI agents need a currency directly convertible to compute (FLOPS) – not fiat or stablecoins controlled by humans.
• The Solution Flop: A blockchain network creating a global spot market for computing power.
  • Mining: Anyone can offer GPU power and earn FLOP tokens (block subsidy).
  • Usage: Agents pay with FLOP for compute and can store their "memories" (context) there.
  • Token Incentive: Initially, compute is almost given away to create network effects.
• Success Metric: The amount of inference processed (actual compute work done).

Price Predictions and Outlook

• Bitcoin (in 12 months): Above $200,000.
• Ethereum: Between $5,000 and $10,000 – Hayes sees ETH as the best risk-reward trade in crypto due to its weak performance.
• His thesis would be wrong if AI enthusiasm fades entirely and agents are not used.

This video explores the Better Vessel, a tool that helped a Filipino barista achieve the highest espresso scores at the 2025 World Barista Championship.

• Three parts: A top chilling sphere (added by the creator, not official), a double-walled main vessel, and a movable base with a stand.
• How it works: Espresso is pulled into the vessel, left to rest for 15-20 seconds, then placed on the final cup – the sphere lifts, trapping the crema while the clear espresso flows through.

• Crema is bitter – it's an emulsion of oils, fines, and CO2.
• Removing it yields a sweeter, more acidic, and silkier shot.

• The creator pulls a double shot: half normally (with crema), half with the Better Vessel (without crema).
• The Better Vessel shot: smoother mouthfeel, more prominent fruit flavors, less bitterness – almost like fruit juice.

• In barista competitions, judges award points for undisturbed crema on the surface.
• The Better Vessel allows competitors to show perfect crema, then quickly remove it – a major time-saver (12 drinks in 15 minutes).

• Pros: Fast cooling, effective crema separation, easy to use.
• Cons: Expensive, limited production, single-shot capacity, fragile 3D-printed base (can crack).

• Not a necessity, but a fun way to experience espresso differently. Traditionalists may still prefer the classic shot with crema.

No imperial units to convert; all measurements remain as in the original.

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The speaker analyzes whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or if further declines are ahead. He compares the current market structure to historical cycles (2018, 2019, 2022) and highlights the uncertainty.

• Apathetic Top Instead of Euphoria: Unlike previous bull markets, 2024/2025 lacked a euphoric rally. This might mean a full market reset isn't necessary.
• Historical Parallels: Comparisons to 2019 show that after a 40% rally in two days, Bitcoin hit a new low 31 days later. Similarly, 2018 had three lower highs (around $9,000, $8,500, $7,400), mirrored by today's $90,000, $80,000, and $70,000 levels.
• 200-Day Moving Average: A sustained break above the 200-day MA would be bullish. Currently Bitcoin is about 10% above it, while in 2019 it reached 18% above before falling again.
• Macroeconomic Factors: The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and three Fed rate cuts mirror the 2019 environment. Political news (Trump/China) also drive short-term rallies.
• Strategy: The speaker advocates Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) over market timing. He buys Bitcoin below a risk metric of 0.3 but hasn't accumulated enough for the next bull market yet.
• Caution on Short-Term Rallies: Before the final bottom in every midterm year, a strong rally often occurred (e.g., 23% in six days in 2022) followed by a selloff.

The speaker remains neutral: both bullish and bearish signals exist. The key is whether Bitcoin holds above the 200-day MA in the next two weeks. He advises against shorting and emphasizes a disciplined DCA plan.