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The analyst explains why Bitcoin around $60K is not a bear market but a reloading zone. The transition from a speculative toy to a global macro asset is happening. The risk is not owning Bitcoin, but holding fiat when the debt dam breaks.

• Leverage demand recovered: Futures trade at a premium over spot (green bars) – a positive risk-on signal.
• 200-week moving average: Bitcoin is back above it (~$62,500) – a bullish sign.
• CVDD (Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed): At $50K, but not reached. Historically, proximity was a good entry point.
• Miners selling heavily: Public miners sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 as mining costs (~$80K) exceed price. Despite this, Bitcoin price held steady – indicating hidden buyers.
• ETF outflows: Record $5B outflows in 8 weeks, but only 70,000 BTC sold – market absorbed it.

• US national debt nearing $40 trillion, adding $50B daily. This debases fiat and strengthens the Bitcoin thesis.
• Foreign central banks are dumping US Treasuries at a record pace – another driver for Bitcoin as a hard asset.

• MicroStrategy sold 3,500 BTC ($216M) to support STRC dividends. MSTR price still rebounded – a sign of strength.
• STRC is near the trendline at $91. Holding for 9 months results in breakeven due to interest payments.
• Analyst: As long as Bitcoin rises at least 2% per year, STRC is profitable – with fiat debasement at 14% annually, that's likely.

• July historically positive with +8.29% average. So far July is up +9% after a bad June (-20%).
• Despite short-term volatility: Fiat debasement drives Bitcoin long-term. Do not let noise shake you out of a generational macro asset.

• Charts and on-chain data suggest a recovery. Hidden buyers (sovereigns, whales) and reduced selling pressure support the market.

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Why Heating is Getting More Expensive (And What You Can Do About It)

• Gas price increase: The gas price has risen by two and a half times since January 2025.
• Main reason: The conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's shipped oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes.
• Global impact: Although Germany is hardly directly affected, global market prices are rising for everyone.
• Gas storage: The targeted fill level of 80% before winter is not expected to be reached.

Important: The average gas price is falling temporarily for existing customers because utilities purchased cheaply and the gas storage levy was dropped. However, new customer tariffs are over a third more expensive. Price increases of 10-20% are expected for existing customers at the turn of the year.

• Network charges: Make up about one-fifth of the gas price and have risen by 10%.
• CO₂ price: Was 55 € per ton in 2025, currently between 55 and 65 € per ton in 2026.

Free & Easy Tips

1. Bleed your radiators: Especially important on upper floors. Air in the system reduces efficiency. Easily done with a radiator key from a hardware store.
2. Ventilate properly: Open windows wide several times a day instead of leaving them tilted constantly. A hygrometer helps monitor humidity and prevent mold.
3. Heat strategically: Every degree you lower the thermostat saves roughly 6% heating energy. Heat rooms according to their use (see recommendations from the German Environment Agency).
4. Circulate the air (with high ceilings): A fan on a low setting distributes warm air more effectively in the room.
5. Close stairwell and apartment doors: Prevents cold drafts and heat loss.

Tips with a Small Budget & Effort

6. Seal windows and doors: Check for drafts (e.g., with a strip of paper) and seal them with draft excluder tape from a hardware store. Savings: approx. 13 € per window per year.
7. Use a low-flow shower head: Reduces hot water consumption (approx. 12% of energy use) and saves money.

Financial & Strategic Tips

8. Secure current prices: If you have your own gas contract, switch to a tariff with a price guarantee to lock in the current rate for a year.
9. Check your utility bill!
   • Deadline: Your landlord must present the bill for 2025 by Dec 31, 2026. If it is late (due to their fault), you don't have to pay the balance.
   • Apportionment: Check if costs are distributed fairly.
   • Disallowed costs: Repair costs, bank charges, or postage cannot be passed on by the landlord.
   • Right to reduce payment: If heating costs are not billed based on consumption, you can reduce your share by 15%.
10. Adjust monthly advance payments: Increase your monthly payments or build a small reserve in a savings account to avoid unexpected large bills.

You are not helpless against the price increases. With the tips mentioned alone, an average of 465 € per year per apartment can be saved. Act now, because your consumption this winter will determine the amount of your additional payment in 2027/2028.

Further Information:

• The full interview with energy economist Malte Küper is available on the Finanzus podcast.
• A detailed guide on checking your utility bill is available in the newsletter.