Bankless|08. Mai
Why Crypto Is Suddenly Trading Like the Nasdaq
📈 Markets and Correlations
- Bitcoin & NASDAQ: Correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ is at an all-time high (0.48 in 2026). Bitcoin up 4.5%, Ether up 1.2%. Markets feel frothy, but AI stocks are lifting everything.
- AI Boom: Companies like Anthropic show 80x revenue growth (Q1 2026). AI token demand is insatiable – even on a personal level.
- Warning Signs: Berkshire Hathaway holds record cash reserves ($400B) and has sold for 14 consecutive quarters. Warren Buffett compares markets to a church with a casino attached.
- Project Freedom: Trump announced an attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz by force. After Iranian attacks on a UAE oil facility, the project was paused; negotiations resumed.
- Oil Price Drop: Crude oil fell 15–18%, easing global economic pain. The pain tolerance pendulum shifts in favor of the West.
- PolyMarket: Probability of a peace deal by June 30 is 55% (+14% week-over-week).
- Compromise: Banks got restrictions: No yields on stablecoins held like bank deposits. Activity-based rewards (DeFi, staking, governance) are allowed.
- Remaining Hurdles: Developer and DeFi protections (Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act) still pending. Ethics provisions regarding Trump’s crypto activities could derail the bill. PolyMarket probability at 66%.
- Coinbase: Laid off 14% of staff – a cyclical bottom signal. Brian Armstrong aims for flatter hierarchy (max 5 layers) and no pure managers.
- VC Rounds: A16Z ($2.2B) and Han Ventures ($1B) raised a combined $3.2B. Focus: new financial infrastructure, tokenization, agentic economy.
- Statement: Saylor considers selling Bitcoin to pay dividends on STRK (preferred shares). This marks a shift from his “never sell your Bitcoin” mantra.
- Context: Small amounts to open the STRK market. As long as Bitcoin appreciates long-term, the model works.
- Glamsterdam Upgrade: Max block space increases from 60M to 200M gas, hitting the 3x yearly trend for transactions per second.
- Devs in the Arctic Circle: The upgrade was decided at a conference in Svalbard. Result: L1 fees drop significantly – “blockchain fees are basically gone.”
- Announcement: Concrete implementation of Trump’s executive order expected within weeks. Likely includes central cold storage (“Fort Knox for Crypto”), audit framework, and reserve asset designation for Bitcoin.
- Holdings: US government holds ~300,000 BTC, with 150,000–200,000 available for the reserve. A purchasing program is unlikely.
- Frozen ETH: A US court issued a restraining order on 31,000 ETH that Arbitrum recovered from North Korea (Lazarus Group). Claimants are US citizens with terrorism judgments against North Korea.
- Reaction: Taylor Monahan (SEAL Team) lashed out at the law firm for frivolous lawsuits. The case highlights risks for layer-2 security councils.
