DER AKTIONÄR TV|18. Mai
US-Börsen - Kommt die große Korrektur? Nasdaq 100, Microsoft, Bitcoin, Coinbase, Brent-Öl im Check
📊 Market Analysis: Consolidation After Record Rally
The show reviews the current market situation after a historic rally. High expectations for the US-China meeting were not met (only minor deals like 200 Boeing orders), causing a slight dampening of euphoria.
📉 Volatility & Sentiment
- The VIX rose back to ~18 points after several carefree days.
- The Greed & Fear Index shows signs of overheating (euphoric zone).
- Expert sees a healthy consolidation but warns of possible setbacks.
📈 Bond Market & Inflation
- Rising yields: 30-year US Treasuries at ~5.085%, 20-year above 5%, 10-year ~4.5%, increasing the burden on government debt.
- Inflation risks growing globally: 27 out of 29 major economies see rising inflation, making rate cuts unlikely.
- The central bank is under pressure; „transitory inflation“ brings back memories of 2022 errors.
🔍 Individual Stocks & Trading Ideas
- Nasdaq 100: After a sharp rally to ~29,600 points, a 5% consolidation is likely. A Put with leverage 6.7 (WKN: UQ3VVK) is suggested as a hedge.
- Microsoft: Warrant with 45% return potential (WKN: MN39GS), current price ~420 $. Target: 480 $.
- Bitcoin: Pullback to ~76,000 $ (from 83,000 $) seen as buying opportunity. A certificate (WKN: VV9W2C) with 1.74x leverage remains a Strong Buy. Year-end target: 100,000 $.
- Oil: Again rising toward 112 $ (currently ~107 $). Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz drive prices. A Put with leverage 3.36 (WKN: WA1JD) hedges against a possible détente.
⚠️ Conclusion
- Short-term correction possible, but pullbacks are opportunities.
- Bullish stance remains: Long-term markets rising, though bonds could cause disruptions.
- Rate cuts in 2024 are unlikely unless inflation falls.
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