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This transcript analyzes how waning trust in the Federal Reserve's independence is fueling a rise in US Treasury yields.

The Rise of Kevin Worsh

• Kevin Worsh was confirmed as new Fed Chair in May. The confirmation was narrow (54:45), and the ceremony was held at the White House for the first time since 1987.
• President Trump emphasized Worsh's independence, but the circumstances of his appointment fuel doubt.
• Worsh is considered a hawk, favoring rate hikes. Despite his hawkish stance, the Fed has held rates steady because inflation (core PCE around 3.4%) remains elevated.

Credibility Problem of the Fed

• The market does not fully trust the Fed. Worsh's close ties to President Trump (through his father-in-law) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (shared mentor, weekly meetings) call the central bank's independence into question.
• The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond has risen to a 19-year high of over 5.2%, even though the Fed hasn't cut rates. This signals a loss of confidence.

Global Market Shifts

• Japan, the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, is massively selling US bonds (net $29.6 billion in Q1 2026). The reason is the weak yen, which fell to a 40-year low against the dollar.
• A coordinated intervention (July) to support the yen by the US and Japan was only briefly successful. The US share was small, indicating Washington's reluctance to weaken the dollar.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent is pressuring the Fed to expand a facility allowing Japan to borrow dollars without selling US Treasuries. The facility's current non-use signals an unspoken problem.

Implications for Investors

• A loss of Fed credibility leads to a permanently higher interest rate environment for the US, not necessarily a crash.
• Central banks worldwide have been buying gold since 2022 as a hedge against dollar risk. Bitcoin also becomes more attractive in this environment as an asset free from political influence.
• Key metrics to watch: 1. Rising long-term yields despite stable Fed funds rates, 2. Usage of the dollar facility by Japan, 3. Continued Japanese selling of US bonds. This could push the 10-year US yield up by 20 to 50 basis points.

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• Rick Rubin describes how Jay-Z listened to the beat for 99 Problems, let it loop repeatedly, sat in the back mumbling/humming for 20–30 minutes, then went into the other room and recorded the first verse in just three takes. No written lyrics, everything was composed in his head.
• Jay-Z’s process is unique: unlike other rappers, he never writes physically but shapes words and flow internally, like a saxophonist improvising a solo.

• “Indefensible” is a positive term for Rubin – it means pushing things to extremes beyond reason and expectations. Only through this can revolutionary works emerge.
• Rubin stresses: Creativity is beaten out of us over our lives – by school, rules, and comparison. Instead, we should express ourselves freely and follow intuition (or “the universe”).
• Comparisons are pointless: Michael Jackson vs. Prince, Kanye vs. Drake – each artist has a unique perspective. It’s not about better or worse, but authentic self-expression.

• Rubin has meditated (Transcendental Meditation) since age 14. He meditates 20 minutes twice daily – often with artists like Tom Petty, Johnny Cash, or Red Hot Chili Peppers before sessions.
• Meditation helps him see beneath the surface and connect with a deeper, intuitive level. For him, it’s the key to creativity and self-knowledge.

• Rubin distinguishes four phases: Seed, Experimentation, Crafting, and Completion/Editing. Only when the work is nearly finished should a deadline be set.
• No pressure on art: Don’t let commercial expectations drive you. True greatness comes from doing what you love and offering it as a “gift to the universe.”
• Examples of “miracles” in the studio: Johnny Cash’s debut album recordings were originally just tests in the living room – they turned out better than the studio versions.

• Rubin himself experienced a severe depressive episode in his early 30s after a mentor was forced out. He felt like he had been shot with a poison arrow, had panic attacks, and couldn’t sleep. Therapy and antidepressants helped him.
• This taught him: Sometimes something needs to die – a career, relationship, or lifestyle – so something new can emerge. Suicidal thoughts often come from feeling trapped, but in reality you can hit the reset button and start a whole new life.
• “The soft overcomes the hard” – Rubin quotes the Tao Te Ching. Water drips on a rock and wears it away. Often non-action is the best action.

• Johnny Cash: Humble, quiet, deeply spiritual. Rubin learned humility and the power of silence from him.
• Tom Petty: The ultimate craftsman – everything had to be in time and in tune, every word intelligible. He worked two years on an album without hurry.
• Adele: She can sing a song 30 times in a row and nail it every time – like a throwback to 70s singer-songwriters. Authenticity is her hallmark.

• “The Creative Act: A Way of Being” (2023) – Rubin’s book on creativity as a life philosophy. It consists of 78 chapters (inspired by the 78 tarot cards).
• “The Book of HOV” (HBO documentary, Sept. 2024) – An eight-part series on Jay-Z, revealing the poet and lyricist behind the businessman. Intimate, unusually personal insights.

• “Don’t listen to what anyone tells you. Be true to yourself, work hard, never give up.”
• Most great artists are “ordinary people who made a decision” – like Eminem, who constantly writes to become better.
• Creativity starts with perspective: Go to museums, read old books, watch great movies. The best ideas often come from areas unrelated to your field.

Final question of the interview: Who would you call in a 60-second thank-you call? Rubin: His wife and child – they have changed his life and shown him the world with fresh eyes.

• Dr. Peter Attia explains why the thyroid is a complex topic: The Goldilocks principle applies – both too much and too little thyroid hormone are problematic.
• Unlike testosterone, there is no natural overproduction of thyroid hormone, and symptoms are non-specific.

• The thyroid is a small gland with two lobes located above the voice box, producing the hormone T4.
• T4 regulates metabolism in almost all body cells – acting as a "volume knob" for energy expenditure.
• Too little thyroid hormone (hypothyroidism) leads to fatigue, weight gain, low heart rate. Too much (hyperthyroidism) causes anxiety, insomnia, atrial fibrillation.
• 5% of adults in the US have clinically significant thyroid dysfunction – many are mismanaged.

• Thyroid regulation is complex: T4 is converted to the active hormone T3, but this process varies by tissue.
• Two extreme camps:
  • Camp 1: Hypothyroidism is underdiagnosed and undertreated – any symptom like fatigue indicates a thyroid problem.
  • Camp 2: Hypothyroidism is overdiagnosed – only extreme cases are treated.
• The truth lies in between: Both extremes can cause harm.

• Symptoms like fatigue or weight gain are non-specific and may have many causes (e.g., sleep deprivation, iron deficiency, menopause).
• Lab testing (TSH, T4, T3) is crucial – symptom assessment alone is insufficient.

• Mistake 1: Doctors ignore thyroid antibodies or family history when TSH is "normal" (e.g., 4.2).
• Mistake 2: Functional medicine often treats subclinical hypothyroidism unnecessarily based on borderline T3 or elevated reverse T3, even though values would normalize on their own.
• Thyroid hormone treatment is not benign: Risks include cognitive issues, atrial fibrillation, bone loss.
• Many patients oscillate between extremes – both overreach.

• A balanced, lab-guided approach considering symptoms and risk factors is key to accurate diagnosis and treatment.