InvestAnswers|10. Juli
The Turnaround: Bitcoin, AI, and SpaceX
Summary: Bitcoin, AI, and SpaceX in Focus
The speaker analyzes the week's key events, highlighting several turnaround signals:
Bitcoin & Crypto:
- Bitcoin ETFs: After nine weeks of outflows, inflows returned this week ($110M). Bitcoin is above $64k, a critical level. This could be a turnaround signal.
- Buying pressure rising: Currently 30% buy vs. 22% sell pressure, similar to February before the rally. Key levels: support at $61.6k, resistance at $71k.
- Historical patterns: If cycles repeat, about 10 weeks of downturn remain, followed by 3 years of uptrend, possibly targeting $150k.
- Correlation with NASDAQ broken (AI-driven tech rally vs. weak Bitcoin).
- On-chain analysis: Glassnode sees $60k as a 'kill zone' and deep value territory. Short-term holders are buying aggressively at these levels.
Markets & AI:
- Memory shortage: SK Hynix CEO predicts extreme memory shortages until at least 2030. Micron is the biggest winner – projected 2026 net income exceeds the last 35 years combined.
- Nvidia is as cheap as it has been in a long time (P/E below 20).
- Michael Burry (famous short seller) is betting against Tesla and Micron – the speaker considers this a mistake.
Tesla & SpaceX:
- Tesla tore down the Model S/X production lines in 46 days (creative destruction) to make room for a larger facility. Goal: 1 million Optimus robots per year.
- Robots for space: Elon Musk plans to send Optimus robots to the Moon and Mars first to prepare habitats.
- Merger SpaceX/Tesla: Prediction markets show 70% probability of a merger before 2028. The speaker advises buying the cheaper asset.
Sovereign AI Stack:
- SpaceX is the only company covering the entire AI stack: from raw data (X) to chips, infrastructure, global network, and space-based data centers. Google is the only partial competitor.
- SpaceX stock is hard to buy, but positioning now is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Macro & Economy:
- US debt near $120 trillion, only 50 million taxpayers bear the burden ($8M per person). This forces currency debasement.
- Loan delinquencies rising: student loans 12%, credit cards 13.5%, auto loans 6%.
- CBDCs: Central bank digital currencies banned in the US until 2030; Europe pushes for a 'digital euro' with restrictions.
- Fed brings in Mark Andreessen to advise on AI's impact on productivity and employment.
Conclusion:
- Hope is not a plan – the speaker advises relying on data, charts, and math. 84% of viewers want to keep learning.
- Key message: Buy cheap now what won't be cheap in 1-3 years.
