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Latest Analyses(7)

The Secret Battle Over the New Crypto Stock Market
Coin Bureau|26. Mai

The Secret Battle Over the New Crypto Stock Market

Introduction
  • On May 14, the Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to advance the Clarity Act.
  • The SEC is expected to release the "Innovation Exemption" this week, which unlocks $30 trillion in US equities onto crypto rails.
  • Tokenized stocks and ETFs have reached a combined market value of nearly $1 billion.
  • BlackRock's BIDD has surpassed $2.5 billion in assets; DTCC launches its tokenization service in July.
The Three Key Pieces
  1. SEC Innovation Exemption: A regulatory sandbox allowing crypto platforms to trade tokenized securities without full broker-dealer registration.
  2. Clarity Act: Splits jurisdiction between SEC and CFTC, codifies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP as digital commodities, and creates new ATS licenses.
  3. DTCC Tokenization Service: Received a no-action letter in December 2025, limited production trades in July, full launch in October.
Infrastructure Already Live
  • NASDAQ and NYSE have SEC approvals for tokenized stocks.
  • Robinhood, Kraken, and others already offer tokenized US equities.
  • BlackRock's BIDD secured an AAA rating from Moody's and a $1 billion liquidity facility.
The Central Legal Battle
  • Key Question: Can a platform tokenize a publicly traded stock without the issuer's permission?
  • Securitize (BlackRock's partner) warns of fragmentation and unsecured claims in bankruptcy.
  • Citadel Securities and CFMA demand stronger KYC/AML controls and warn of regulatory arbitrage.
  • The outcome determines who captures trillions: crypto-native exchanges or traditional intermediaries.
Token Analysis
  • Ondo Finance (ONDO): Up 48% in 30 days, market cap $1.19B. Market has priced in the exemption – risk of "sell the news."
  • Maker (MKR): Record Q1 revenue of $124M but price down 11%. Disconnect between fundamentals and price.
  • Chainlink (LINK): Up 3.5% in a month. As infrastructure (oracle, CCIP), LINK benefits regardless of the legal outcome. Used by DTCC, Swift, Fidelity.
Structural Risks
  • The Innovation Exemption is a sandbox that can be quickly reversed if something breaks.
  • 78% of tokenized assets are claims on off-chain assets with counterparty risk.
  • Institutional products are mostly gated to qualified investors and don't confer voting rights or dividends.
Outlook
  • Watch: Innovation Exemption text, Clarity Act floor vote, DTCC rollout, Securitize IPO (SECZ), JP Morgan's JLTXX on Ethereum.
  • Two scenarios: either full disintermediation or institutional capture of crypto rails by traditional gatekeepers.