Welcome to Nofinity

Current Situation

• Starbucks (SBUX) stock down -20% over 5 years, market cap $108B, P/E ratio 54, dividend yield 2.61%.

New CEO

• Returned 2 years ago (ex-Chipotle CEO 2018–2024). Goal: return to former strength. Early successes: comparable store sales improving, operating margin rising.
• Challenges: dirty stores (especially in Europe), union disputes, higher prices → customer decline.
• Sale of 60% of China business strengthens balance sheet.

Financials

• Long-term strong revenue and profit growth (revenue 6x, profit 8x over 15–20 years).
• Current: net income last 12 months only $2B (normal ~$4B). Last quarter: operating margin back to historical levels → possible turnaround.
• $25B in buybacks at high prices, financed with debt – criticized as 'financial engineering'.
• High leverage since 2018, limited benefit for shareholders.

Analyst View

• Mostly 'Hold', only 12% strong buy. Analysts expect 20% earnings growth by 2028 and P/E of 25.
• Speaker's estimate: long-term return of ~6% at current price (based on 5% dividend growth, 10% discount rate).
• Worst case: if required dividend yield rises to 5%, stock must fall 50%.

Intrinsic Value

• With a required 10% return, intrinsic value is far below current price.
• Market appears satisfied with 6% return → implies 4% dividend yield in future.
• Bottom line: Low expected return (5–6%) with high risk – comparable to Nike; better alternatives like Netflix, Meta, Fiserv with lower P/Es.

Conclusion

Starbucks has a strong brand and potential, but current price is high, return low. Investors should wait for sustainable profitable growth or a cheaper entry point.

Summary follows...

The Pagani Huayra Codalunga Speedster is a breathtaking one-off from Pagani's exclusive “Grande Complicazione” division. Only 10 examples are being built – all already sold. The car tested is the factory prototype, and Pagani has never handed over the keys to anyone before.

• The name Codalunga literally means “long tail” – fitting for the extended rear section.
• It features an entirely new carbon-and-titanium chassis, unique to this model.
• The carbon rear clamshell measures 3.7 m² – bigger than a regulation pool table.
• Highlights include an oval front “mouth”, pistachio green paint over exposed carbon, bespoke wheels with left- and right-handed spokes, slimmer air intakes and snorkel-style air scoops.
• No mesh, no grille at the rear – instead a ceramic quad exhaust plus hidden extra pipes blowing hot gas over the diffuser.
• Even the rear fog light becomes theatre in its own little “tail gunner” pod.

• The cabin still looks stunning 15 years after the original Huayra.
• It features the first wooden steering wheel in a Huayra – a homage to the Zonda.
• The wood matches the gear knob of the 7-speed open-gate manual gearbox.
• Pagani developed its own touchscreen, but for the Utopia they moved back to smaller screens and buttons – a welcome decision.
• The upholstery can be customized with 4 million stitches and an exhaust-pattern fabric.
• Detail obsession: the key tray is longer to fit the longer Codalunga key.

• Power comes from a 6.0-litre twin-turbo V12 by AMG, built exclusively for Pagani.
• With 852 hp, it is the most powerful road-going Pagani ever – 24 hp more than the coupe.
• The soundtrack is not an operatic V12 scream, but a menacing mix of turbo hiss, sucking and whistling.
• The manual dog-leg 7-speed gearbox takes time to master but offers more control than the usual automated manuals.
• A blip button on the steering wheel rev-matches automatically if you like.
• Despite its exclusivity, the car does not feel fragile: lovely steering, great ride and proper sports-car engineering.

• The price is €11 million – which explains the extreme bespoke effort.
• The Codalunga Speedster is called the prettiest Huayra of all time.
• It proves that hypercars are not just collector's items – they deserve to be driven shamelessly and mercilessly.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

• Ben Cowan admitted he was wrong: he expected a Q4 flush, but Bitcoin broke above the May high and now trades around $85K.
• Bitcoin has shrugged off macro headwinds (rising yields, strong dollar, higher energy prices) that normally would pressure it.

• The current bear market lasted only ~9 months – similar to 2019, but without a massive volume spike at the bottom.
• Compared to the previous cycle (Terra/Luna, FTX), there were fewer ‚sins‘ to pay for, hence less pain.
• The 4-year cycle remains intact, even if the bottom came earlier than expected (summer instead of Q4).

• Global net liquidity is still severely constrained (~$25T vs $30T in 2021).
• Monetary policy is less restrictive now (Fed funds rate below 2-year yield), allowing altcoins to rally.
• However, a true alt season is unlikely unless Bitcoin first has a euphoric rally and liquidity surges (which would require a crisis first).
• The Bitcoin pair index (ALT/BTC) does not yet show a sustainable rotation.

• The decisive factor is the weekly close above/below ~$82,800 (May high).
  • Above it: Bullish – the bottom is likely in.
  • Below it: Bearish – could still see a Q4 low.

• The recent spike in YouTube views is not due to renewed retail interest, but to a change in how views are counted (now counts after 1 second).
• Other metrics (Coinbase app ranking, Google Trends, Twitter followers) show no recovery in retail demand.

Takeaway: Stay flexible. As long as Bitcoin holds above $83K, the bullish case is intact. A weekly close below that level could trigger another Q4 decline.

Summary follows...