Welcome to Nofinity

The panel discusses the current situation of Tesla and SpaceX stocks. Sentiment is extremely low despite prices near lows, mainly due to SpaceX IPO liquidity drain, dashed expectations, and numerous conspiracy theories.

• Mission vs. Money: Elon Musk's motivation is clearly the mission (94% of a poll), which often frustrates investors as short-term price targets are secondary.
• Stock Analysis (James): Tesla is recovering slower than ever from a gap-down. SpaceX also saw its first buy signal. Tesla's 200-day moving average is around $407, and the gap between $340 and $370 is expected to be filled.
• Conspiracy Theories:
  • Compensation Plan: The alleged clause that lets Elon skip milestones in a merger is not new and was discussed months ago.
  • Index Inclusion SpaceX: FTSE Russell confirmed no behind-the-scenes maneuvering; the fast entry was requested by index users.
  • Robotaxi Sandbagging: Jeff argues Tesla is not scaling due to software issues (e.g., detours), not sabotage. This is about product quality.
• Merger Math: Alexandra explains the complexities: exchange ratio, voting rights, potential floor for Tesla shares. A merger could happen within weeks or years, depending on the political window.
• AI and Robotics: SpaceX is seen as the AI play (data centers in space), Tesla as the robotics play (cybercab and Optimus). Both have huge potential but different timelines.

The panel remains optimistic for the long-term future but warns of short-term volatility. The biggest risk to the Tesla thesis would be failure of robotaxi or Optimus. They recommend holding both stocks and watching for merger developments.

• Clarity Act Fails: The first major US crypto regulation bill died in the Senate (49:50, 10 votes short). Coinbase stock fell 8%, Circle ~10%. Bitcoin ignored it.
• Fed Rate Hike: The US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points (first since 2023). The 10-year Treasury yield spiked above 5%, the Bank of Japan hiked to a 31-year high. Bitcoin still rose.
• AI Sector Weakens: Anthropic's CEO warned about runaway AI progress. Sam Altman and Elon Musk agreed. The semiconductor index dropped over 5%; Nvidia, ASML, SoftBank all fell. Crypto remained unfazed.

• 84% of liquidations were shorts ($843M of $1B total).
• In a single hour, over $300M was liquidated, 97% of it shorts.
• Between 126,000 and 135,000 accounts were closed.
• One wallet lost 375 BTC (~$32.5M) in four sequential liquidations over 14 hours.
• Mechanics: Forced buying from short liquidations pushes price higher → triggers next layer of shorts → cascade.

• Clarity Act irrelevant for markets: A failed bill changes nothing about Bitcoin's functionality (blocks, trades, custody). Crypto grew to over $1 trillion without US regulation.
• Institutions keep buying:
  • Strategy (MicroStrategy) bought 950 BTC for $75M right in the worst news week.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $450M on voting day, but regained $433M just three sessions later.
  • Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF logged 20 consecutive days of net inflows.

• China ban 2021: >50% of global hashrate went offline → Bitcoin rose from $29K to new ATH in 4 months.
• FTX collapse Nov 2022: Low of $15,400 – the absolute bottom.
• US banking crisis March 2023: Three banks failed, USDC depegged → Bitcoin rallied 40%.
• Inverse: Coinbase IPO April 2021 (peak) and ETF approval January 2024 (price fell from 49K to 38K) – good news marked tops.

Bitcoin is not a market that only rises on good news. The current rally through three parallel shocks shows: A strong holder base and institutional demand drive price independently of politics and macro. Future headlines may be just as grim – but crypto has proven itself through years of uncertainty and hostility. The question: Higher from here, or a bull trap?

Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) is a super app from Kazakhstan that covers nearly the entire financial and daily life of the country. The stock offers a dividend yield of almost 9 %, a P/E ratio of about 7, and growth of around 17 % – for the analyst, it's hard to find much wrong.

• Monopoly position: 85 % of payment processing and 70 % market share in consumer commerce in Kazakhstan.
• Government integration: Deep cooperation with the government and central bank – considered “too big to fail.” After a short-seller report (Culper Research), regulators immediately defended the company.
• Super app: Used for healthcare, government services, and banking – practically the entire population depends on it.
• Monopoly with political backing: This only works in Kazakhstan, but there it is a legal money-printing machine.

• Acquisition of Turkish e-commerce leader Hepsiburada for $1.1 billion.
• Acquisition of a banking license (Rabobank license) and planned capital injection of $300 million.
• Expansion of a “Buy Now, Pay Later” business and integration of fintech solutions into the Turkish platform.
• If Turkish profitability even approaches Kazakh levels, this could become a major winner.

• Net income is growing, stable net margin of around 27 %.
• E-commerce growth and payment business are strong thanks to the monopoly position.
• Non-performing loans (NPL): About 6–7 % and slightly rising – worth watching, but cushioned by high interest rates (15 % central bank rate).
• Balance sheet: $15 billion in customer loans, $17 billion in customer deposits – typical bank risks, but with fintech margins.

• Kazakhstan risk: Political connections, corruption allegations, possible rumors about bank stability.
• Dependence on the state: If political support changes, the business model would be in danger.
• Currency risk: Tenge fluctuations, but growth remains strong when measured in dollars.
• Bank risk: As a financial company, always vulnerable to loss of confidence and potential bank runs.

• P/E of 8 with 15 % growth and an 8–9 % dividend yield provide a margin of safety.
• Tencent as an investor and the “Silk Belt and Road” connection to China are additional strategic pluses.
• Founders own 66 % of the capital – without them the construct would not work, which creates resilience.
• The analyst is considering adding the stock to his diversified portfolio, although he considers the environment risky. “Hard to find much wrong” – but it remains an engaged emerging-market investment.

The Bitcoin price has surged from $68,000 to $87,000 in just two weeks, approaching the predicted October target of $90,000. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing strong inflows, and long-term holders have significantly reduced their selling, which is considered a bullish signal. The price has broken through the 50-week moving average, suggesting further gains, while institutional investors are increasingly using MicroStrategy to gain exposure to Bitcoin. The purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline due to inflation.

If building your own trading bot feels overwhelming, there are professional developers who have done it for free on GitHub. This video covers my top three repositories for executing trades, along with setup and usage tips.

• Function: Free, open-source crypto trading bot in Python, supporting all major exchanges and controlled via web UI or Telegram.
• Features: Backtesting, plotting, money management, and machine learning for strategy optimization.
• Key Point: Beginner-friendly with pre-built parameters and risk settings. Also supports stocks, commodities, and FX via exchanges like Binance or Hyperliquid.
• Live Trading: Control via Telegram commands (e.g., /performance, /start, /stop). Includes built-in backtesting with historical data and a dry run feature.
• Conclusion: Perfect for those wanting a ready-to-use solution without deep programming.

• Function: Personal trading agent with self-improving features to generate and test strategies.
• Features: Answer market questions, backtest, review trades, read institutional filings, run analyst teams, and access a library of over 450 pre-built alpha factors.
• Application: Ideal as a research and strategy development tool before live trading. Can connect to Alpaca for paper trading.
• Example: Tested momentum strategies for NVDA, META, AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN, backtested with realistic fees, and set up paper trading with $100k.

• Function: AI trading terminal for stocks, commodities, forex, and crypto.
• Features: Autopilot mode, no need for personal hardware – everything runs on their servers. Provides a dashboard with liquidation maps, order books, signal matrix, and orchestration.
• Application: Create and execute strategies directly via the web interface on Hyperliquid or other exchanges.
• Advantage: Very user-friendly as the infrastructure is pre-built.

• Recommendation: Try all three repos as they serve different purposes. You can combine tools, e.g., use Vibe Trading for strategy development and Freak Trade for execution.
• Tip: Experiment with paper trading to test strategies risk-free. This is the best way to learn and improve AI trading.
• Additional Info: For setup guides and community access, check the description.

This video critically examines the current AI euphoria, questioning whether we are in a bubble and whether it's time to take short positions – especially on NVIDIA.

📈 The Spending Pyramid

• We only see the tip of the financial pyramid: high profits, strong growth – everything looks great.
• But the lower layer (future commitments 5x current spending) hasn't yet hit the books.
• NVIDIA forecasts 70% growth – correct as long as companies stick to their commitments.
• Planned spending is in the trillions per year – boosting profits now, but depreciation is coming.

💸 Depreciation as a Game-Changer

• When investments (e.g., $3 trillion over 3 years) hit balance sheets, annual depreciation could be ~$500 billion (assuming 6-year useful life).
• Hyperscalers would need to triple their current profits just to cover depreciation and then make some money.
• Top 10 S&P 500: $600B net income – minus $500B depreciation = $100B – negligible vs. market cap.
• By 2029, $1 trillion in additional operating profits needed to justify the spend – that's the market's implicit expectation.

⚠️ Dot-Com Comparison

• The author draws parallels to the dot-com bubble: High capex leads to overcapacity, price wars, and eventual collapse.
• He cites Michael Burry („The Big Short“): Stock market booms peak midway through the capex cycle.
• China could undercut profits (Elon Musk sees China as potential AI world leader).
• AI is getting cheaper (e.g., video streaming costs dropped dramatically) – bad for high ROI expectations.

🛠️ Action: Short or Puts?

• The author avoids long positions (too risky).
• He considers put options on NVIDIA as a hedge or speculation.
• Example: A put with strike $100 (current ~$200) costs ~$1 – if NVIDIA falls to $50, 40x return. Cheap „disaster hedge“.
• However, an 80% decline in 12 months is unlikely – most options expire worthless.
• Michael Burry also uses puts but constantly adjusts.

🔮 Outlook

• The author expects a possible tipping point around 2027 when depreciation fully hits.
• For now: „Don't short too early, but hedge defensively.“
• Recommendation: 1–2% of portfolio in cheap out-of-the-money puts as catastrophe insurance.
• Midterms 2024/25 bring additional volatility.

Conclusion: The AI bubble may burst, but timing is uncertain. A small hedge with OTM puts is an interesting low-risk strategy to profit from a potential crash.

The creator greets the audience and immediately addresses his main point: his failed prediction. He admits he was wrong when he doubted that Bitcoin could surpass the May high. He emphasizes that he is not making excuses or trying to sugarcoat the situation, but rather openly acknowledges the misjudgment.

• Confirmation of Error: The creator confirms that Bitcoin has indeed exceeded the May high.
• Price Action: He mentions that the price is above the 50-week average and has risen to nearly $86,000 (85,815 USD).
• Personal Reflection: He explains that it is difficult to admit mistakes, but it is an inherent part of financial markets. Over time, he has grown accustomed to being both loved and hated.

• Missed Opportunity: The creator regrets that his planned buying strategy for July (with risk under 0.3) only lasted five days. He takes this as a lesson to capitalize more on opportunities when they arise.
• Humility and Growth: He reflects that this experience helps him stay humble, while also slightly preferring to stay out of the spotlight.

• Acknowledging Others: He praises other analysts who were right and recommends his audience follow them, as their insights are currently more valuable.
• Price Outlook: The creator remains open-minded about where Bitcoin might go for the rest of the year.

He thanks his viewers for their patience, as he has not been able to upload videos for the past two weeks. He was in New Zealand, a lifelong dream destination. He is glad to be back and ends the video with gratitude and a friendly farewell.