Finanzfluss|07. Juni
SpaceX & OpenAI IPO: Impact on ETFs? Participating with Trade Republic?
SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic: Mega IPOs and Their Impact on ETFs
In this video, Thomas from Finanzfluss analyzes the upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic and their effects on passive ETF investors.
Key IPO Facts- SpaceX: IPO expected June 12, 2025 on NASDAQ, target valuation $1.8 trillion. Only about 5% of shares (free float) will trade, causing high volatility. Elon Musk holds 85% voting rights.
- OpenAI: IPO likely Q4 2025, valuation around $1 trillion.
- Anthropic: IPO expected October 2026, also around $1 trillion.
- MSCI World / FTSE All-World: SpaceX included after 3 months or immediately (fast-track). Due to low free float (5%), weighting is only ~0.10% (e.g., €11 per €10,000 invested).
- S&P 500: SpaceX not included because index rules were not changed (12-month seasoning, free float >10%, profitability required).
- NASDAQ 100: Originally required 10% free float; rule relaxed to cap weight at 3× free float (15% for SpaceX). Resulting weight: ~0.5% (€50 per €10,000).
Trade Republic allows clients to subscribe to SpaceX shares at IPO. This is speculative: historically, IPOs gain a median of +7% on day one, but 60% are down after 3 years. Given SpaceX's size, first-day performance is uncertain. Thomas advises investing only a small amount and sticking to long-term passive strategies.
Conclusion for ETF InvestorsMega IPOs have minimal impact on global indices – weightings are tiny. Some rule changes (NASDAQ, MSCI) occurred, but they are not dramatic. No need to change your strategy. Those wanting to reduce US exposure can consider other ETFs (e.g., Getcoma).
