Mario Lochner|17. Juni
SpaceX and AI Bubble: Beck Makes "Grave" Portfolio Changes + Clear Words on Stock Market and Interest Rates
Current Market Assessment & Portfolio Changes
- Global Economy: Europe, especially Germany, is in an economic crisis without perspective. The US dominates with strong profit growth and AI innovations.
- Interest Rate Policy: The ECB raised interest rates, which Dr. Beck calls 'crazy,' as the yield curve fell. The US must eventually lower rates to manage debt.
- Portfolio Adjustment: Gold was reduced from 2% to 0.5% due to valuation challenges and declining buying pressure. Focus shifted to Swiss franc bonds (without withholding tax) and Norwegian krone. The US allocation is justified at over 50%.
- SpaceX: Not a classic business company but a power tool for Elon Musk’s visions (Mars colonization). Its valuation (over $3 trillion) is fundamentally unjustified—lacking dividends, voting rights, and cash flow. Dr. Beck views it as a 'donation.'
- AI Monopolies: Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI create closed ecosystems. Key point: The AI model 'Mythos' is only available to US companies—a massive power lever for the US. Europe lags behind and needs a strategy or submission.
- Investor Takeaway: Markets are expensive but AI-driven. A globally diversified portfolio (including US and China) is essential. Home bias (e.g., only DAX) is risky.
- If invested: Stay invested—AI efficiency gains partially justify high valuations.
- If not invested: Enter the market, but only with half the planned amount ('half-rule').
- ETF investors: SpaceX has only 0.11% weight in MSCI World—no cause for concern.
- Bitcoin: Currently boring with a stable buyer base but less potential than SpaceX.
- Power Question: Whoever controls platforms (e.g., Starlink, AI models) decides over exceptions—affecting investors via dependencies in Ukraine or Taiwan.
- Book Recommendation: 'Philosophies of New Technology' (1989) shows historical innovation leaps that broke power and social structures.
Conclusion: The next 10 years will be transformed by AI. Europe needs a clear strategy—otherwise, it risks subordination. Investors should think globally and monitor power shifts.
