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📈 S&P 500 Outlook for the Rest of 2026 [Update]

The analyst provides an updated outlook for the S&P 500 in 2026, emphasizing this is an academic exercise and not financial advice. His own strategy is to dollar-cost average (DCA) into low-expense index funds monthly.

Recent Development and June Correction

• A shallow June correction was predicted a month ago and has materialized (approximately 5% decline). This aligns with historical patterns for midterm election years.
• Past examples (2018, 2022, 2014) all showed a shallow correction in June or early summer.

Historical Patterns for the Rest of the Year

The expected path is based on previous midterm year behavior:

• Summer (July/August): After the June correction, the market tends to drift sideways or slightly higher, often on lower volume (vacation season).
• Late Summer/Fall (August/September): This is the typical timeframe for a second, deeper correction. Historical examples:
  • 2018: Started in September, 20% decline
  • 2022: Started in August, 20% decline
  • 2014: Started in September, 10% decline

The analyst expects a decline between 10% and 20%, starting later this year.

Political and Macroeconomic Influences

• Presidential Term Comparisons: The S&P 500's performance under Donald Trump's second term closely mirrors his first term (e.g., 2018).
• US Dollar: The dollar tends to grudgingly strengthen during midterm years, acting as a headwind for stocks and potentially contributing to the correction.
• Seasonal Lows: Historically, the average annual low for the S&P 500 in midterm years occurs in late September / early October.

Impact on Other Asset Classes

A larger correction in the fall could lead to a needed reset, which may:

• Help Bitcoin establish a market cycle bottom.
• Allow Gold to find a similar bottom.

Key Takeaway: Expect a modest summer rally, followed by a significant correction in the fall of 2026. This is a normal midterm year pattern that may reset the market for the next bull run.

📊 Weekly Review: One Spark is Enough – Investors Could Look Foolish

Mario Lochner hosts the Saturday briefing. Markets are strong, hitting new all-time highs. Focus: a single spark that could finally defeat the bears, and full disclosure of all purchases made on July 30.

🏆 Winners & Losers of the Week

• Winners: Nebius (+30%, revenue +454%), CoreWeave (revenue doubled), Super Micro (guidance +30% above expectations), TKMS (double-digit gain), Westas (strong bank sector), Rocky Mountain Chocolate (exploring sale/merger), Birkenstock (+13%), Workday (+26% on takeover rumors).
• Losers: Cisco (record quarter but stock fell), On Holding (pricing concerns), PNE (failed sale process), JD.com (revenue decline), Cerebras (missed revenue estimates), HelloFresh, Energiekontor, Evotec.

🐻 Bears vs. Bulls: The Situation

• Bears warn of an AI bubble, rising sovereign debt, oil near $90, US strategic reserves at 40-year low. They predict a single "spark" could trigger a crash.
• Bulls counter: inflation is falling (CPI on target, PPI at 4.7% below 4.9% forecast), supply chains easing, rate hikes becoming less likely (Fed Watch Tool: 2/3 expect no hike in September).
• Sentiment: More bears than bulls (37.9% vs 34.7%) – a contrarian bullish signal.

📈 Disclosed Purchases (July 30) & Performance

Stock	Performance Since Purchase
Teradyne	+85%
Onto Innovation	+52%
Marvell	+35%
SK Hynix	+28%
Teradata	+24%
OneStop Systems	+18%
Taiwan Semiconductor	+13%
Cleanspark	−7%

Lochner emphasizes these trades are documented in the Beating Beta portfolio and criticizes earlier skeptics.

🔍 Four Bear Myths Refuted

1. Chips lose value quickly – Counterexample: CoreWeave’s 6-year-old A100 chips are contractually committed until 2029. GPU rental prices continue to rise.
2. Neoclouds will go bankrupt – Nebius shows explosive growth and pricing power. Management: "We could sell capacity for 2027 today, but deliberately hold some for immediate customer needs."
3. AI winter is coming – IT budgets have significant room to grow; agentic AI will multiply demand sixfold by 2026. SK Hynix and Samsung plan buybacks and special dividends.
4. Hyperscalers are burning cash – Despite high capex, cloud revenues are surging (Google >80%). Semianalysis expects cloud growth to double by 2027.

💡 Dividend Kings & Outlook

• Introduction of a free list of stocks with decades of dividend growth (e.g., Sysco (SYY): food distributor with 56 years of dividend increases, simple business model, vast network).
• Market outlook: Financial conditions excellent (Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index), historically strong S&P 500 earnings revisions, low volatility. A potential drop in oil prices (if Iran tensions ease) could fuel further rally. Lochner advises staying invested but with risk management.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. All content is for educational purposes only.

Bitcoin & Crypto: The Quiet Bottom 📉

• Bitcoin has traded sideways at ~63–64K for 7 months; low volatility and volume.
• Sharpe ratio is terrible – but historically, these are the best entry points.
• ETF flows erratic: +$1B last week, -$0.3B this week.
• Prediction: Bottom on October 6 (Parabolic Matt), ~53 days left.
• Solana launches Alpenglow with 150 ms finality – 6,000x faster than Ethereum. Ideal for AI agents.
• Clarity Act stalls in Senate; 2026 passage odds drop to 17–21%.

AI Investments: The Capex Pivot 🔄

• SpaceX/XAI closes $60M Cursor deal; Grok 4.7 in 3 weeks surpasses competitors.
• Big Tech (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) halts buybacks – money redirected to AI CapEx.
• Free cash flows dip short-term (Amazon negative in 2026), explode from 2028.
• Oracle warning: Debt/equity ratio 3.3x – similar to telcos before dot-com crash.
• Memory is the bottleneck in the agentic era (Peter Diamandis/Elon Musk).

Macro: Debt, Copper & Inequality 💸

• Copper: Structural shortage until 2040 due to AI data centers and electrification. Safe bet.
• US national debt at $40T – up $4T in 13 months. Interest payments exceed defense budget.
• No rate cut in September: 70% probability. Labor data revised down.
• Wealth inequality: Top 1% own more than entire middle class. New millionaires from AI – half of all new US millionaires in 2025.
• Takeaway: Buy hard assets, follow the 1% – or risk being left behind.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice – just a guy on the internet.

The Gordon Murray Automotive S1: A Homage to the McLaren F1

Gordon Murray Automotive (GMA) unveils the S1, a more road-oriented version of the extreme S1LM. Instead of radical aerodynamics, the S1 focuses on mechanical grip and pure design.

Key Details at a Glance:

• Only 64 units (all already sold out) – far more than the 5 S1LM units, yet still extremely exclusive.
• 4.2-liter Cosworth V12 engine: Revs to 12,100 RPM, producing 690 hp (514 kW) and 498 Nm of torque, available from just 2,000 RPM.
• 6-speed manual gearbox with a longer sixth gear for relaxed touring.
• Suspension: 10 mm more ride height than the S1LM, more compliant dampers, and switchable power steering.
• Design: Every carbon panel differs from the S1LM. The headlights and wheels reference the 1992 Monaco Concept McLaren F1.
• Interior: No touchscreens; instead, analog gauges and two small screens for infotainment and vehicle data.
• Price: Undisclosed but in the millions – the first S1LM sold for over $20 million.

Genesis & Philosophy

Gordon Murray explains that the S1 was born from customer demand. Many S1LM enthusiasts wanted a version without the overt wings and splitters. Thus, a “road touring” supercar emerged, incorporating learnings from the T50 and T33. Murray emphasizes that the S1 is a one-time opportunity – such a car will never be made again.

Future Outlook

GMA is already working on “Project 3”, an entirely new platform. Their philosophy: only three variants per platform, then a completely new architecture. The Special Vehicles division remains small and focused – it’s Murray’s “playground” for extraordinary creations.

Bugatti 'Destrier' (Based on the Bolide): A Stunning One-Off Creation

Bugatti Rimac CEO Mate Rimac discusses the Bugatti Destrier – a breathtaking 'Solitaire' (one-off) built on the extreme, track-only Bugatti Bolide.

Extraordinary Proportions & Design

• The car stands just 1 meter (3.3 feet) tall – proportions reminiscent of designer Frank's wildest sketches.
• It utilizes the chassis and legendary W16 engine from the Bolide.
• The focus is on pure design: a blend of extreme aesthetics and racing DNA. The US-based client, a major collector, was instantly captivated by the concept.

Is it Road-Legal?

• It has the basic ingredients (e.g., road tires, radiator fans), but lacks airbags and crash testing. An individual vehicle approval (e.g., in the UK) would be possible, but the owner has yet to decide.
• The core goal is timeless, elegant design that will still be captivating in 50 years.

Development & Uniqueness

• The displayed model is real (with the Bolide chassis) but not a running car. Building the drivable version will take another 2 years.
• Despite being a one-off, it undergoes extensive testing (aerodynamics, suspension, brakes) – more than some smaller brands do for their standard models.
• The "Solitaire" program allows customers to act like a Bugatti CEO: they sit with designers and engineers to name the car and define its mission (track vs. road, luxury vs. performance).

Interior & Engineering

• The interior is tailored for the 1m tall racer: an extremely low seating position (helmet-compatible), six-point harnesses (no airbags).
• Highlights include hammered aluminum (medieval knight armor inspiration), copper-woven fabric, and a yoke steering wheel with all controls within fingertip reach.
• The W16 architecture dominates the center tunnel.

The Sister Car: Bugatti Tourbillon (discussed)

• The Tourbillon is the new series model and the first completely independently developed car under Mate Rimac. It shares virtually no parts with Volkswagen or Audi.
• It's powered by a newly developed, naturally aspirated 16-cylinder engine (no turbos!) combined with electric motors – a packaging masterpiece.
• The development was extremely challenging (e.g., emissions, cooling), but the engine itself proved highly reliable.
• A special detail: the instrument cluster is made of over 700 parts, developed with a Swiss watchmaker and driven by tiny servo motors.
• Mate Rimac had to overcome internal resistance to build this combustion-engined masterpiece while simultaneously building the company.

Conclusion

The Destrier is a statement of extreme creativity and craftsmanship. The Solitaire program is not only prestigious but also profitable, driving the brand forward by unlocking "limitless possibilities."

Overview

This episode introduces the newly launched Whale Watching Dashboard on the Into the Cryptoverse website. It analyzes the behavior of large Bitcoin whales and helps identify potential turning points in the market.

Four Core Areas of Whale Analysis

• Whale Transactions: Weighted average of various transaction scores (e.g., by volume).
• Exchange Activity: Average of deposits, withdrawals, flow imbalances, and exchange inflow composition.
• Exchange Inflow Composition: Share of largest deposits relative to total inflow.
• Whale Holder Positioning: Classification by wallet size (e.g., Small Whale, Leviathan) and sentiment.

Interpretation of Metrics

• High whale activity is not automatically negative – it can indicate both bottoms (e.g., late 2018, pandemic low 2020) and tops (e.g., late 2017, early 2021).
• Exchange activity is better at identifying lows, while whale transactions tend to signal highs.
• The combined Whale Activity Score aims to capture both effects: a strong spike suggests a potential local top or bottom.

Current Market Situation (as of August 2026)

• Whale activity is currently very low – comparable to August 2018 levels.
• Transactions over $100,000 are rare; activity at $1M and $10M is also subdued.
• Bitcoin supply distribution shows a shift: wallets with 100–1,000 BTC are gaining share, while larger wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) are losing.

Utility of the Dashboard

• It does not predict the direction of the next price move.
• Once a strong move (up or down) occurs, a sudden spike in whale activity can indicate that the move may be nearing its end.
• Current low levels do not mean the market will stay calm – activity could change in the coming months.

Conclusion

The dashboard is another tool for spotting turning points. Interested users can access it on the Into the Cryptoverse website. The coming months (end of the midterm year) could be decisive for changes in whale activity.

The Backstory: From Racing Disappointment to Tribute Model

• In 2007, Koenigsegg developed the CCGT – a GT1 endurance race car with 600 hp and 600 kg of downforce.
• After just two months of testing, the FIA changed the regulations (requiring 350 cars/year), and the project was abandoned.
• The sole CCGT was sold in 2024, restored, and approved for historic racing – the CCGT1 celebrates this revival.

The CCGT1: Technical Highlights

• Limited edition: Only 70 units, all sold out.
• Base: CC850, but heavily modified.
• Aerodynamics: 800 kg of downforce at 250 km/h – designed for consistent performance even over bumps and jumps.
• Optional Track Pack: Slicks, carbon roll cage, racing seats, different suspension – conversion in 2–3 days.
• Ghost Fiber: A new translucent ballistic fiber that is lighter and stiffer than standard carbon.
• Engine: 1,600 hp on E85 (1,280 hp on regular fuel) – flex-fuel sensor adjusts boost accordingly.
• Transmission: LST (Light Speed Transmission) with sequential shifter – ignition cut for ultra-fast shifts, like a race gearbox.
• Interior: Analog G-force meter (purely mechanical), covered ignition switch, race-inspired details.

Future Plans

• Track days planned for Track Pack owners.
• Christian von Koenigsegg aims to revive the GT1 class with the FIA – in collaboration with other manufacturers.

The CCGT1 is a perfect blend of racing DNA and road usability – a versatile, characterful hypercar.