Mario Lochner|22. Aug.
Short like never before! This will end badly – but for whom? // BRIEFING
📉 Short like never before: Bond market shakes, Bitcoin back
The video discusses current market conditions with record short positions, rising bond yields, and Bitcoin's return above $75,000. Bull and bear arguments are contrasted.
📊 Winners & Losers of the Week
- Moderna: +177% after Phase 3 breakthrough for mRNA cancer vaccine, later -25%
- Bitcoin: back above $75,000, supported by a short squeeze
- Deutsche Telekom: earnings beat expectations, guidance raised
- Walmart: weakest US quarterly growth since 2020 (-9%)
- Advance Auto Parts: -25% due to customer spending cuts
🐻 Bear Arguments
- Bond crisis: US long-term yields at 25-year high; national debt above $40 trillion
- Interest costs exceed defense spending
- Oil price above $90; Trump threatens "Economic D-Day"
- US Economic Surprise Index drops sharply
🐂 Bull Arguments
- Philly Fed Business Outlook largest monthly increase since 1983
- Household net worth rose from $101 trillion to $183 trillion (debt in context)
- Credit card spending continues to rise; consumers not broke
- Crude oil inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels
- Sentiment: nearly 40% bears ("Wall of Worry")
📈 Dossier: Bond crisis – how dangerous really?
- Main driver: rising oil price (highest correlation with bond yields) and uncertainty from forward guidance (Kevin Wash)
- AI companies issue 40% of all bonds with maturities ≥15 years – competition for US Treasuries, but effect marginal (5–30 basis points)
- Historical analysis: yields between 4–5% were not catastrophic for stocks (S&P 500 positive on average)
- Spread indicators currently show no stress in the system
🚀 Surprise through the back door: Goldilocks scenario
- 5 reasons:
- Wall of Worry (record short positions, many bears)
- Economy running well but not too hot (GDP Nowcast at 4%)
- Inflation in check (Trueflation at January level)
- Financial conditions at best since the 1990s
- Corporate earnings (large caps historically high); insiders buying heavily
- Possible scenario: oil price falls, creating perfect conditions for further gains
💡 Investment Ideas & Sectors
- "Dead" stocks live longer: OpenAI (growth rate higher than Anthropic)
- Hidden AI winners (Goldman Sachs): Dollar Tree, eBay, Axon Enterprise, etc.
- Rate hedges: gold, silver, Bitcoin; energy stocks (ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy); real estate (Toll Brothers, DR Horton)
- Google 13F portfolio: large position in SpaceX, plus UiPath, CME Group, etc.
