Welcome to Nofinity

This stock market briefing by Mario Lochner analyzes the current market situation where strong quarterly results are no longer enough to lift stock prices and price targets are being slashed. The focus is on the week's winners and losers, the contrasting views of bulls and bears, and the impact of the latest jobs report and liquidity conditions.

• Palantir beat all expectations, raised guidance, stock temporarily +30%.
• Caterpillar with +23.5% revenue and +65% net profit.
• Shopify with strong outlook.
• C4 Therapeutics (biotech) nearly doubled, but highly speculative.
• Sandisk delivered record numbers but was sold off – Jefferies cut its price target almost in half (from $3,000 to $1,750).
• Western Digital and SK Hynix also fell sharply despite good results.
• Honeywell weak balance sheet, cut guidance, stock -20%.
• Zalando and Figma (high operating costs) disappointed.

• Bond markets flash warning: high US debt, rising rates in Japan, US forced to support the yen.
• Hyperscalers take on more debt (Alphabet $25 billion new bonds).
• Oil price above $80, US inventories at 1984 lows – new crisis looming.
• Good results no longer matter: Stocks sold off despite record earnings – forward P/E falls while earnings expectations rise.
• Speculation: SP call options surge – a toxic mix.

• Earnings season outstanding: 86% of S&P 500 companies beat profit estimates (average 78%).
• Forward P/E drops from 20.4 to 19.6 while 12-month earnings expectations rose 3.3% – market pays less for more earnings.
• Earnings revisions spike (Citadel chart) – not yet priced in.
• AI demand explodes: Hyperscaler spending rises (2025: $426B, 2026: $779B, 2027: $1.2T). Prices for old chips (Nvidia A1) even increase.
• US economy resilient: Manufacturing PMI high, hiring plans strong, Atlanta Fed Nowcast near 6%.
• Many bears – historically no bull market ends this way.

• Nonfarm Payrolls: -23,000 (expected +80,000), but unemployment rate at 4.1% lower than expected (4.2%).
• Revisions: -103,000 for prior months.
• Effect: Temporarily eases pressure for rate hikes (Fed probability dropped from 70% to coin flip).
• Inflation less feared: inflation expectations falling.
• Financial conditions are good, money supply growing, fiscal put in place.

• Real Assets: Triceratops skull investment via Timeless (from €50). Market value €843,600, IPO €775,800 (8.7% below market). Comparison: Big John skeleton sold for €6.6 million.
• Value stock Vinci: Construction group with motorway and airport concessions (70+ airports, e.g., London Gatwick). Benefits from AI boom (power grids, data centers). P/E 13, attractive dividend.
• Firefighting: Companies like Perimeter Solutions (fire retardant), but complex business – caution on headlines.
• Drone ETF (Han ETF) with holdings like Palantir, Drone Shield, etc.

• Bullish but cautious: Volatility remains high, expectations extreme. Diversification and real assets help. Not investment advice.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

In this episode of the Bankless Weekly Rollup, David and Ryan discuss several key topics:

1. Stock Market Recovery: The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high after a V-shaped recovery, driven by the liquidation of a major fund (Ashen Brener) which removed forced selling pressure.

2. MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin: Michael Saylor sold 1,638 BTC ($105M) but Bitcoin barely reacted and even rose – a sign that Saylor is no longer the main marginal pricer of Bitcoin.

3. Ethereum Staking Yield Debate: A proposal from EF researchers (including Justin Drake) suggests burning staking rewards once 50% of ETH is staked, effectively driving yields to zero. Proponents argue Ethereum overpays for security and that unlimited staking harms ETH's monetary properties. Opponents (DeFi builders, Lido, Etherfi) warn it would crush solo stakers, scare institutions, and undermine credibility. The hosts believe the proposal is dead in the water ( <5% chance) given strong industry pushback.

4. Cold Card Exploit: A vulnerability in Coldcard's random number generator allowed hackers to brute-force seed phrases, draining over $130M in BTC from offline wallets. Victims did everything right but still lost funds – raising serious questions about self-custody in the age of AI-powered attacks.

5. Other News: Uniswap launches its own token launchpad (pools), the Clarity Act's chances drop to 15%, Cloudflare introduces wallets to protect content from AI bots, Near enables staking for AI inference, and Polymarket seeks a $20B+ valuation.

Overall Market Sentiment: The hosts feel crypto is in a waiting game – meme coins dominate, DeFi growth is slow, and fundamental progress (RWA tokenization, scaling) is incremental. Until the AI trade cools, crypto may remain in the background.

Summary follows...

This video discusses the massive opportunities and changes driven by AI, AGI, and chips. The speaker analyzes where the money is flowing in the age of AI and how to position oneself.

Computing Costs Skyrocket

• In 2025, a gigawatt of compute costs $50 billion, rising to $60 billion in 2026 and $73 billion in 2027.
• Growth rate of about 20–22% YoY.
• Bottlenecks include not just GPUs and servers, but also power supply, cooling, and maintenance.

GPU Rental Market Booms

• H100 GPUs are not obsolete; they are generating more revenue than ever.
• Prices for Blackwell clusters doubled from $2 to $4 per GPU hour in seven months.

SpaceX and Tesla's Terra Fab

• Elon Musk and Tesla plan the world's largest factory: 100 million sq ft (approx. 9.3 million m²) in Texas.
• Goal: Terawatt of compute, split into two product lines:
  • 25% for Tesla Optimus robots
  • 75% for Starship space missions
• Starting 2026, space-based data centers using Nvidia Vera Rubin chips are planned.

High Growth Rates at SpaceX

• SpaceX projects $100 billion in annual revenue by year-end.
• Three scenarios for monthly compute leasing revenue:
  • Conservative: $5.8–7.1 billion
  • Base: $7.5–9.2 billion
  • Optimistic: $10–11.7 billion
• CAGR of 170.4% to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2029.

Starlink and Telecom Market

• Starlink has over 12 million active subscribers and is growing rapidly.
• CEO Gwynne Shotwell targets $600 billion through partnerships with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile to eliminate "dead zones."

Company Valuations and Stock Trends

• Nvidia's P/E ratio is at its lowest (around 20), despite critics calling AI a "bubble."
• Tesla is seen as a "co-option on SpaceX" as the latter currently steals the spotlight.
• Google loses four top AI scientists but invests in companies like Anthropic and SpaceX.

AI Agents and Crypto

• AI agents increasingly use cryptocurrencies (e.g., Base from Coinbase) since banks are unsuitable.
• Base chain overtakes Solana and Polygon in cumulative transactions (over 150 million AI agent transactions).

Regulation and Risks

• The White House requires OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta to review AI models 30 days before release.
• 1,130 AI researchers call for slowing AI development due to loss of control.
• The speaker warns that slowing down could give China an advantage.

Outlook: End of Source Code?

• AI could soon convert legacy code (like COBOL or Pascal) directly into binaries, marking the end of traditional software development.

The chip and AI market offers enormous opportunities, but also risks from high costs, regulation, and geopolitical tensions. To position yourself, focus on Nvidia, SpaceX, and AI agent platforms.