Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.|13. Juli
Quadrant Bets - July 2026 - Some 3x to 5x Potential...
Summary of Quadrant Bets (July 2026)
The focus is on evaluating stocks as bets within the risk-reward quadrant. Stocks are categorized as Green (positive), Orange (neutral), and Red (negative).
Green (positive risk-reward situation)
- Adobe: P/E ratio of 12, rebounding from a downturn, depends on next earnings. Looks interesting but too risky for the speaker.
- Alibaba: Jumped 11% after a video about cheap AI stocks. Long-term green signal.
- Pinduoduo: Down 50% due to negative sentiment for Chinese e-commerce. Appears oversold. Could rebound if investors shift from Hynix/TSMC.
- Kuaishou: Similar to Pinduoduo, considered a cheap AI stock.
Orange (neutral assessment)
- Constellation Software: Diversified cash flows and acquisitions, but less prone to AI disruption.
- CNH Industrial: Market needs higher demand for agricultural machinery; no movement.
- Oil stocks: Moved to bet side due to volatile oil prices. Will return to quadrant if oil goes to $60, then investment instead of bet.
- Pabrai Wagon: Stock falling due to emerging market Asia pressures. Speaker dislikes the fund approach as it forces too many purchases.
Red (negative risk-reward situation)
- Flower Foods: Dividend cut, fierce competition (like Pepsi). Large, poor acquisition with debt.
- Warrior Met Coal: Significantly up, but rated as a red bet.
Special Bets
- Charter Communications: Rated as zero or five. Can buy itself back in a few years or succumb. Higher upside than Comcast.
Core Message: Bets are speculative and sentiment-driven. Red means rejection, orange is neutral, green shows potential.
