Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.|09. Juli
QSR Stock Looks Interesting, but... - Dividend Stock
Analysis of QSR Stock (Restaurant Brands International)
- Stock Performance: Hardly any movement in the last 6-7 years. P/E ratio of 25, dividend yield of 3.5%.
- Brand Portfolio: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, Firehouse Subs, etc. – global expansion, franchise model.
- Financials: Improving comparable sales, net restaurant growth, operating income.
- Growth Targets: 5% or more annual growth, targeting double-digit total shareholder returns (dividends + buybacks).
- Share Buybacks: Planned $500 million in buybacks by 2026, reducing leverage.
- Valuation: Intrinsic value around $63 assuming 6% dividend growth (10% expected return). Lower growth of 2% implies downside risk.
- Risks: Consumer pressure, GLP-1 drugs, recession, competition, high debt, interest rate changes, brand volatility.
- Conclusion: Interesting business but not a strong buy now. Watch with a risk rating of 9%.
