Benjamin Cowen|15. Mai
Powell Steps Down as Chair of the Federal Reserve
Powell's Resignation & Market Outlook: A Sober Analysis
This episode discusses Jerome Powell stepping down as Federal Reserve Chair and Kevin Worsh taking over. The host urges caution and examines macroeconomic challenges.
Key Takeaways:
- No Reason for Euphoria: The leadership change alone won't radically alter interest rate policy, as Worsh has just one vote in the Fed system.
- Inflation as a Major Hurdle: Recent PPI data shows producer price inflation rising to about 6% (year-over-year), making rate cuts very difficult.
- The 4-Year Cycle: Both stock markets and Bitcoin follow a 4-year pattern. Historical bottoms often occurred in March or October.
- Bitcoin Correction Expected: After a counter-trend rally to around $86,000 (38.2% Fibonacci level), a second correction is forecast for Q3 or Q4. An expected surge in oil prices could amplify this.
- Two Scenarios for Worsh:
- Hard Landing: Inflation forces rate hikes, causing panic but creating a long-term buying opportunity.
- Soft Landing (less likely): An already occurring economic downturn allows for rate cuts.
- Critique of Powell: The Fed's failure to raise rates in 2021 worsened inflation. The 2% target has not been met in five years.
- Conference Note: The host is planning a conference in Miami (Q4) covering markets, crypto, and gold. Visit benjaminc.com/conference for details.
Conclusion:
The market faces a difficult period. The party might not be over, but the ending will be bumpy. An unbiased look at the data is more important than ever.
