
Oracle Stock Can Give You A 5X!
This video analyzes Oracle stock from a value investor's perspective. The speaker discusses why the market is skeptical despite high growth figures and whether the stock is a worthwhile 'picks and shovels' play in the AI sector.
Analyst Opinions and Market Situation- Most analysts rate Oracle as Strong Buy, but the speaker points out that analysts often follow the stock price and haven't yet adjusted their targets to market developments.
- The average analyst price target implies a 90% upside, which the speaker considers unrealistic.
- Bulls argue for AI cloud growth and 'picks and shovels', while bears point to high capital expenditures (Capex) and unclear return on investment (ROI).
- Revenue growth is at 20%, with cloud infrastructure growing by 93% and CPU/GPU infrastructure by 119%.
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO) have surged to $648 billion, indicating future revenue.
- However, debt levels are also rising sharply, as Oracle finances investments through debt and preferred shares.
- The speaker argues that growth could be circular, similar to hyperscalers, since many customers themselves are unprofitable.
- Oracle is betting that AI will remain in high demand, but no one knows whether chips and infrastructure will still be valuable by 2030.
- The stock has fallen about 60% from its peak, showing the market recognizes the risks.
- The speaker views Oracle as speculative gambling rather than a safe investment.
- He compares it to Bitcoin – a game one might play, but the outcome is unknown.
- For him, if uncertainty is too high and achieving financial goals isn't guaranteed, he skips the stock and invests elsewhere.






