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Latest Analyses(6)

When Will The Fed Raise Rates?
Benjamin Cowen|28. Juli

When Will The Fed Raise Rates?

FOMC Meeting and Rate Hike Forecast
  • The speaker expects the Fed to hold rates steady tomorrow (July 29) and likely hike in September.
  • Reason: The Fed typically follows the 2-year yield, which is already pricing in higher rates.
Bond Vigilantes and Yield Curve
  • If the Fed does not hike, bond vigilantes could push long-term yields higher (10-year toward 5%, 30-year above 5.2%).
  • The 30-year yield has been testing the 5.1–5.2% level since 2023; a breakout would force the Fed's hand.
  • Historical precedent: In midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022), the S&P 500 saw 10–20% corrections starting in August/September.
Labor Market and Inflation
  • Initial jobless claims hit a decades-low of 187,000, signaling a strong labor market.
  • The unemployment rate is 4.2% and trending down since November 2025.
  • Inflation risks remain: Energy prices (XLE) could rebound, pushing inflation higher despite recent drops.
  • The short-term inflation decline (from 4.1% to 3.4%) looks positive, but energy and labor data suggest it may accelerate.
Market Correction Scenario
  • A Fed hold without hikes could trigger a stock market correction (10–20%) in August/September, similar to prior midterm years.
  • Bitcoin may bottom in Q4 2025, while altcoins continue to underperform.
  • Flight to safety is evident: Mega-cap tech outperforms small caps; Bitcoin outperforms altcoins.
Stablecoin Dominance
  • Stablecoin dominance (excluding stablecoins) has doubled from 6% to over 13% since October 2025 – indicating risk aversion.
  • Bitcoin dominance (ex-stables) is still rising, but altcoins suffer under restrictive monetary policy.
Key Takeaway

The Fed is likely to raise rates in September if long-term yields rise and the economy stays robust. Expect a market correction in late summer, followed by 2–3 rate hikes by year-end. Tight policy will favor safer assets and punish speculative ones.

SOURCE