📊 Market Overview & Weekly Events

Last week was eventful despite seasonal lulls. Here are the key points:

🔴 NFP Shock & Market Reaction

• US July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs (expected: +80,000). Prior months were revised down by 103,000.
• Markets rallied on the weak data, reducing the probability of a September rate hike. Bond yields fell, gold and stocks rose.
• The odds of a September rate hike have significantly decreased.

🇯🇵 Historic Yen Intervention

• The US and Japan jointly intervened to support the yen – the first such action in over a decade.
• The real reason: Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries (over $1 trillion). Without intervention, Japan might have sold Treasuries to prop up the yen, spiking yields.
• Quirk: The US sold euros instead of dollars to buy yen – an unusual move to avoid political friction. The ECB was not informed.
• Effect already fading: half of the yen's gains have been erased.

₿ Crypto: Bitcoin Shows Strength

• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin twice (over 3,200 BTC total), but Bitcoin barely reacted, holding above $61K.
• The Clarity Act was postponed to September – odds of passage fading. Market largely ignored.
• Technically: Bitcoin broke out of a long-term downtrend on the daily chart (since October 2024). Next resistance is the 50-week moving average around $67-71K.
• Strength despite negative news is seen as bullish.

🚀 Other Highlights

• SpaceX reported first quarterly earnings: revenue +92%, but high spending weighed on the stock pre-market.
• Trump regularly calls former Fed official Kevin Warsh for advice on everything from Iran to AI.
• The Iran deal (announced as imminent by Treasury Secretary Bessent) collapsed: Iran demanded full US capitulation. Trump reportedly wants to walk away if the Strait of Hormuz opens.

📅 Outlook for the Week

• Wednesday: US CPI (key data point) – crucial for rate expectations.
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims post-NFP.
• Friday: Retail sales and consumer sentiment (Univ. of Michigan).

🐦 Tweets of the Week

• Nostra House of Gold: Cartoon of Trump negotiating with himself.
• Zack V: Humorous comparison of LinkedIn, Instagram, and Crypto Twitter.
• Coldcard hack: Several users lost funds due to bad entropy in hardware wallets – criticism of self-custody for beginners.
• Sam Blackshear: SUI's chief scientist (creator of Move language) leaves for Anthropic (AI) – symbolic of brain drain from crypto to AI.
• Cringe tweet: AI-generated video of crypto influencers dancing – possibly a bottom signal.

📈 Technical Analysis (Jordi)

• Bitcoin stuck in a range (61-66K). Volatility squeeze suggests a breakout soon.
• Key levels: Value Area High (66K) as resistance, Value Area Low (around 58K) as support.
• Daily Cipher indicator shows potential sell signal with overbought stochastics – but patience is advised.

Key Takeaways from the Interview with Russell Clark

Russell Clark, founder of hedge fund Bramble Capital, discusses the economic and political consequences of the US midterms and the dynamics of AI investments. His central thesis: Rising government spending, higher inflation, and growing wages are systemic – not a short-term cycle.

Political Landscape After the Midterms

• The election result was less a vote for Democrats than a rejection of Trump's policies, driven by people wanting more money in their pockets.
• Trump's successful immigration policy removed a key political pillar; high oil prices and cuts to social programs weakened his base.
• Clark expects pro-worker and inflation-friendly measures to intensify. Trump will likely veto tax increases, but higher spending is probable – the deficit will not shrink.

AI Bubble: Why Not Short?

• The best short opportunities arise from overcapacity driven by logical incentives – e.g., China, where companies compete for market dominance.
• Clark sees no such clear overcapacity in AI: demand for data centers remains enormous, and hyperscalers are fully booked.
• AI is an existential threat for Google, Microsoft, etc. – they must invest, even if it looks financially irrational.
• Governments may step in to prevent China from gaining an edge, limiting downside for shorts.
• As long as equity markets keep funding AI projects like SpaceX or OpenAI, the crucial evidence for a bubble bursting is missing.
• Even Oracle, despite a fallen stock price, has not drastically cut capex – it continues to raise billions in capital markets.

Capital Scarcity and Inflation

• The vast capital pools from Asia that used to flow into US Treasuries are shrinking – central banks hold fewer dollar reserves.
• This leads to higher capital costs and tighter financing conditions, likely hurting private equity and alternative asset managers.
• The US is in a kind of Cold War with China, which permanently elevates defense spending and investment – reminiscent of wartime economies.
• Wages are the true inflation driver, not oil. Once the Fed cuts rates, the long bond market may sell off because investors realize inflation is not being fought.

Opportunities and Risks for Investors

• Clark is positive on Japan: its long stagnation was politically imposed (US pressure to limit semiconductors). Now investment returns, and rising property prices are less politically sensitive than elsewhere.
• US homebuilders and franchise restaurants could come under pressure as margins shrink due to higher labor, energy, and interest costs.
• Share buybacks remain the dominant market driver, with Apple as a prime example. Companies without existential AI capex needs may benefit long-term.
• Oil is a “dead investment”: road transport demand has peaked, and the link between energy consumption and GDP is weakening.

Conclusion

Russell Clark sees asymmetric risks: while the AI bubble offers a poor risk-reward for short sellers, structural inflation trends and capital scarcity are the key factors for the years ahead. He continues to search for concrete evidence for a short position – but hasn't found it yet.

📉 Market Under Pressure: Echoes of 2018

This video analyses the ongoing losses in the US stock market after the midterms and draws striking parallels to 2018. Back then, a post-midterm rally quickly reversed into a sharp Q4 sell-off – a pattern that looks set to repeat.

🔍 The Three Key Factors Driving the Decline (Then & Now)

• 🐦 Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve continues to signal rate hikes despite dropping markets. There's still a ~75% chance of a December rate increase.
• 🌍 Escalating Trade Wars: Similar to 2018, tariffs are squeezing profit margins for companies like Caterpillar, 3M, and Ford. Today, tensions with Iran add another layer of uncertainty.
• 🔍 Tighter Regulation: Increased scrutiny, especially around Artificial Intelligence (AI), is weighing on sentiment – mirroring the regulatory headwinds tech stocks faced in 2018.

💡 Outlook: What Does This Mean for Crypto?

The presenter warns: If the NASDAQ can test its July low, why can't Bitcoin? He expects a potential capitulation of the last remaining optimists before the next bull market begins. Markets are currently driven by headline fatigue and high uncertainty.

📅 Conference Note: The 'Investing Through the Cycles' conference in Miami takes place in just over two weeks – check the description for details.

Peru's Coffee History at a Glance

• Coffee cultivation in Peru began between 1740 and 1760, back when the Kingdom of Peru was much larger.
• The first coffee exports went to Germany and England in 1887.
• In 1873, after defaulting on a loan, the Peruvian government ceded two million hectares of land to Britain, where coffee was soon planted.
• In the 1970s, large coffee farms were divided up and sold to smallholder producers under Juan Velasco. This was ultimately positive but posed challenges at the time.

From Quota Systems to Organic Certification

• The International Coffee Agreement helped Peru maintain prices, but also reduced the incentive to invest in infrastructure.
• In the 1980s and 1990s, the Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) brought violence to coffee communities and hindered rural investment.
• From the late 1990s, demand for ethically certified coffee like Fairtrade grew. NGOs invested heavily in Peru.
• Today, around 25% of the country's 100,000 smallholder producers belong to cooperatives, giving them access to financing, technical support, quality improvements, and large buyers.
• Peru is now the world's largest producer of certified organic Arabica coffee.

From Late Bloomer to Specialty Coffee Destination

• For a long time, many producers lacked infrastructure, so delays between harvest and processing hurt cup quality.
• That has changed rapidly: more quality-focused smallholders and producer groups now pay close attention to variety, processing, and cup quality.
• Traceability is often available down to the cooperative or producer group, and frequently all the way to a single estate.

Alternative Models and Mountain Farming

• Beyond traditional cooperatives, there are collective models where several farms help each other with harvesting and share resources – a creative response to labor shortages.
• Coffee grows on steep mountain slopes and must be harvested by hand. Getting the coffee down to processing facilities is extremely labor-intensive.

Flavor Profile and Challenges

• Most Peruvian coffee is washed.
• Peruvian coffee used to be described as sweet and full-bodied but not particularly complex. Today, specialty lots can be floral, juicy, aromatic, and multifaceted.
• A major challenge is leaf rust, a fungus that attacks coffee trees. Popular varieties like Typica and Caturra are susceptible.
• Some farms are adapting by planting new varieties like Geisha and different Bourbon types.

Key Growing Regions in Peru

• Cajamarca (north): well-organized smallholders; around 20–22% of production.
• Junín: around 20–25% of total production; the region suffered greatly in the 1980s and 1990s.
• Cusco: closely linked to tourism, especially visits to Machu Picchu.
• San Martín (eastern Andes): small farms of 5–10 hectares; formerly a coca-growing area, now also known for coffee, cacao, and honey.

Conclusion

• Coffee is a big deal in Peru: more than two million people are directly or indirectly employed in the sector.
• Peruvian specialty coffees are definitely worth exploring.

Introduction
Investigative journalist and ethical hacker Lili Wittmann uncovered a massive network of illegal online casinos. She hacked the gambling authorities of Curaçao and Malta, revealing how billions in tax money are lost to organized crime.

The Origin: A Leaky System
It started with a security vulnerability at Merkur Casino, a legal provider. Passport copies and salary documents were completely exposed. The software used came from SoftSwiss, which also hosted dozens of illegal casinos. "I sat there and asked: How the hell is it possible that data is so poorly protected?"

Legal vs. Illegal Gambling

• Legal: Possible since the State Treaty on Gambling 2021. Requires a license, taxes (5% on stakes), and player protection (€1,000 loss limit/month).
• Illegal: No license, no taxes. Targets "VIPs" (gambling addicts who lose everything). Cases are often dropped for being too complex.

The Hack: Infiltrating the Curaçao Gaming Authority
To identify the real owners, she got creative:

1. Created an account using the name of a local trustee.
2. Exploited a vulnerability (uploading code instead of a file) to gain 9 months of access to the authority's server.
3. Retrieved 80 GB of documents on over 8,000 casinos.
4. The Insight: The authority knowingly enabled organized crime (internal notes discussed legal risks in countries like Germany and Austria), profiting heavily (€50,000 per license, ~1% of Curaçao's GDP).

The Network: Platin Casino & SoftSwiss

• Platin Casino: Likely Germany's largest illegal casino (owner Thomas Daniel K., managed from Frankfurt, famous for sponsoring German rap).
• SoftSwiss: A Berlin-based firm (Founder Ivan Montik), providing "white-label" software. They take 10-15% of player losses.
• The Staggering Numbers:
• Network revenue in 2025: €1.8 billion.
• Estimated tax damage in Germany: €250 million.
• Arrest of Thomas K. and seizure of €80 million by Frankfurt prosecutors on the day of publication.

Consequences for the Journalist

• Legal Action: Malta obtained an injunction against her. Legal costs (approx. €20,000 - €30,000) are borne by her.
• Personal Security: She proactively cooperated with prosecutors to secure the data and protect herself from the mafia ties (connections of operators to organized crime and the far-right AfD party surfaced in the data).
• Funding: Her independent research is financed through Patreon.

Conclusion
The investigation highlights massive failures in international regulation and the critical need for ethical hackers. The end goal is reducing societal harm from gambling addiction, which has the highest suicide rate of all addictions.

The Dream: Pietro Flavor, Motorized and Affordable

The Pietro Hand Grinder with Pro flat burrs is revered for delivering some of the best filter coffee clarity and sweetness. However, its high price tag (~$500), heavy weight, and notoriously poor ergonomics (instability while cranking) hold it back.

The Solution: A Community-Built Hybrid

Coffee enthusiasts Merdad, Aaron, and most notably engineering student Durless (Durlis) invented an ingenious modification for the cheap, motorized A2 grinder (around $100, ~700g).

How the Modification Works:

• A beautifully machined all-metal adapter replaces the A2's base unit.
• It accepts the famous 58mm Pietro Pro Brewing burrs (affordable LeBrew versions are also available).
• The low RPM of the A2 (~60 RPM) perfectly extracts the burrs' signature profile.
• The adapter itself was offered for an incredible ~$40 USD in the first batch.

The Coffee & The Workflow

• Taste: Stellar. Expect the high clarity, silky body, and intense sweetness of the original Pietro.
• Grind Speed: Slow, roughly 1 minute for 15 grams. Perfect for multi-tasking (heating water, preparing filters).
• Workflow: Some tapping and shaking is required to clear the grind chamber, a minor trade-off for the flavor.
• Criticism: The magnets holding the catch cup are somewhat weak. The grinder can stall on very fine, light-roasted beans (easily fixed by tilting or a quick restart).

Conclusion & Future

This mod is a prime example of the incredible creativity and problem-solving skills of the home coffee enthusiast community. It democratizes access to a world-class flat-burr profile for a fraction of the cost. Durless is even exploring adapting the mod for 64mm burrs, which could be game-changing! Check the description below for links to his Discord and Instagram to follow the project.

Summary of Disney Stock Analysis

This video provides a fundamental analysis of Walt Disney Company (DIS), including an intrinsic value calculation and a risk-reward quadrant assessment.

Key Takeaways:

• Comparison with Netflix: Disney is compared to Netflix. Netflix's valuation has declined and now approaches Disney's. Disney's streaming business could potentially achieve a higher valuation due to better content and the "One Disney" model.
• Business Segments: Disney is heavily investing in Parks & Resorts ($60 billion over 10 years), Streaming (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+), and Content. Parks are the most profitable segment, commanding 40–60% price premiums over competitors due to brand strength.
• Financial Metrics: Revenue is growing at high single digits; operating income is recovering post-pandemic. Free cash flow is estimated at $9 billion for the current year.
• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): Historically, ROIC has been in the mid-single digits (below 10%), due to large investments (e.g., $71 billion for 21st Century Fox and $137 billion in PP&E). Goodwill stands at $74 billion.
• Risks: Low ROIC, high debt ($47 billion), declining linear TV, sports inflation, and potential recession. External shocks (e.g., TikTok) could reduce Disney's appeal.
• Intrinsic Value:
  • Conservative: With FCF per share of $5.21, growth from 8% to 6%, and a P/E of 15, intrinsic value is roughly 50% below the current price.
  • Optimistic: With a P/E of 20 (priced for perfection), intrinsic value is near current levels.
• Quadrant Classification: Disney is classified as a stable value in line with the market, with an expected return of 6–7%. Netflix appears to offer a better risk-reward profile.

Conclusion:

Disney is a strong company with an unparalleled brand, but the current valuation offers a sufficient margin of safety only under optimistic assumptions. Investors should monitor high capital expenditures and recession risks.