Coin Bureau Podcast|28. Mai
NFA Live!
Market Situation: Stagnation and Boredom
- The crypto market is currently extremely flat and trading sideways.
- Unlike 2022, which had dramatic collapses (Celsius, FTX, Luna), there are few exciting events.
- Bitcoin is trading at $73,423 (-3% in 24h, -5% in a week) but remains above key moving averages (200/250 days).
- Crypto is becoming infrastructure: Blockchain projects are essentially databases – less revolutionary, more backend technology.
- AI dominates the hype: Artificial intelligence has taken over investor attention.
- Regulatory maturation: Topics like the Clarity Act and ethical debates are necessary but tedious and bureaucratic.
- Patience is key: Historically, midterm years (like 2022 or currently) are always weak. Buying opportunities emerge in the second half (e.g., July–September).
- Use opportunity costs: Other markets are booming (S&P 500, energy, emerging markets). Investing there avoids frustration and strengthens capital for later crypto purchases.
- Don't catch falling knives: Better to wait until the downtrend slows or the cycle moves into accumulation.
- Energy & AI as side bets: Energy is becoming scarcer, AI is growing rapidly – opportunities in SpaceX, OpenAI, or energy companies.
- Bonds become attractive: The US 10-year yield is around 4.5%, UK gilts at levels not seen since 1998.
- IPO wave: SpaceX, OpenAI, and others could drain liquidity from the market but offer long-term chances – reminiscent of the Dot-com era.
- Cyclical patterns are more reliable: The 4-year cycles have proven effective – buy in midterm years, sell in post-halving years.
- Trump as an 'indicator': His Truth Social posts heavily influence the market – almost a trading strategy in itself.
- No panic during price drops: Sales should be strategic, not fear-based. The best time to sell was Q4 2024.
- Recession as an opportunity? If a recession is declared, Bitcoin might bottom before official announcement, depending on monetary policy.
- Ignore in the first half: The first half of the year is often lost for crypto – better to invest in other asset classes and maintain patience.
