Benjamin Cowen|21. Mai
NFA Live
Summary of NFA Live
Introduction
- Hosts Ben, Guy (Coinb), and Rob (Digital Assa News) discuss crypto and macroeconomic topics.
Clarity Act Update
- Progress: The bill passed in the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote, but still lacks Democratic support for full Senate passage.
- Ethics Sticking Point: Democrats want rules preventing politicians (including the president) from profiting from the industry they regulate. Trump’s family made billions from crypto, making this sensitive.
- Stablecoin Yield Compromise: Possible allowance of yield on active balances but not passive. Banks remain hesitant.
- Tight Timeline: Aiming for a July 4th signing, but August recess and midterms loom. Polymarket odds are ~68-70%.
Summer Outlook & Altcoins
- Correction Risk: A failure of the Clarity Act could trigger a correction. Guy took profits on Hyperliquid.
- Strong Performers: Hyperliquid, Zcash, and Venice Token are showing strength, but be cautious – altcoin leadership changes fast.
- Midterm Year History: Crypto tends to underperform in midterm years; cash is often king until Q4.
Inflation and Rate Policy
- Oil Crisis: The Hormuz strait closure and Iran war are driving oil prices up, leading to potential shortages of petroleum products.
- Fed Rate Hikes: Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh may raise rates to fight inflation, despite Trump’s push for lower rates. Rate hikes would hurt risk assets.
- Self-Inflicted Wounds: Trump’s tariffs and war policies are fueling inflation.
Real Estate Market
- High Rates: Long-term rates are rising; Rob is not buying new properties.
- Short-Term Rentals: Still full for now, but slowing consumer spending may reduce vacation demand.
Other Topics
- Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold may outperform Bitcoin as central banks continue buying gold.
- Energy Stocks: Historically rise 6-12 months after stock market peaks, so likely still strong.
- Meme Coins: Rob and Ben criticize them as capital misallocation; no clear end in sight.
Conclusion
- The panel suggests taking profits, caution on altcoins, and considering energy/AI infrastructure. Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI could be a worthwhile play.
