InvestAnswers|26. Juli
🚀 Next 6x, Best Pair Trades, Best Pivots, Bitcoin Engine, AI Compute Plays🧠💥
In this Q&A session, various market topics are discussed. Here are the key points:
Feedback & Introduction- The creator asks for feedback on speed and complexity of his content.
- 87% of viewers find the current format perfect.
- STRC is a preferred stock of MicroStrategy that should trade at par value of $100.
- Currently it is trading far below (~$86-87).
- If STRC does not return to par, it threatens dilution for common shareholders through issuance of new shares.
- The STRC model is a positive flywheel: New STRC shares → Bitcoin purchases → rising Bitcoin price.
- Bottom line: Without STRC recovery, MicroStrategy is 'cooked'.
- Bitcoin mining is currently extremely unprofitable: cost per Bitcoin ~$91,000, price ~$64,000.
- AI compute generates $1,600–$4,000 revenue per megawatt hour, Bitcoin mining only $80–$150.
- Therefore, many miners are pivoting to AI inference.
- Elon Musk's empire (Tesla, SpaceX) is massively focused on AI inference (e.g., Optimus, Cybercab, Megapacks).
- SpaceX successfully completed a Starship test flight – 200 launches could generate $1 trillion in revenue.
- Bottom line: Bitcoin mining in space is currently not viable.
- EchoStar (SATS) serves as a proxy for SpaceX, as SpaceX is not publicly traded.
- There is an arbitrage model: Fair value of EchoStar ranges from $81 to $159 depending on scenario, currently at $88.
- Risks: Complex capital structure, subsidiary bankruptcies, structural decline of core business.
- Do not buy LEAPS now, as SpaceX insiders will unlock more shares until November – price could drop to $100.
- Better to wait and buy cheaper.
- Marvel is cheaper than Nvidia: The pair chart shows a swap zone at 0.80–0.85.
- Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) predicts Marvel as the next $1 trillion company (6x from current $170B).
- Marvel benefits from the connectivity bottleneck (chips, memory, connectivity).
- Recommendation: Swap into Marvel at 0.85, back to Nvidia at 1.45.
- Broad ETFs contain many losers and only a few real winners.
- For a long horizon (children), individual stocks from the I13 basket are better.
- Capital expenditures (Capex) of hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft) flow directly to I13 companies.
- This trend continues at least until 2028 – follow the money.
- Active strategies like pair trading or covered calls are possible in tax-free accounts.
- At age 32, financially independent, with 2–6 hours daily, you have ideal conditions.
- Recommended tools: Lilo (layer model), DCIS (DCA on steroids), IDSS (gold standard with confluence), ATR model.
- Important: Find your rhythm – practice one method 1000 times (Bruce Lee).
- Keep a trading journal, identify wins/losses, stay disciplined and patient.
- Tesla calls (Jan 2027, $400): Break-even at $450. Roll down to safer strikes or buy more time, as the last 3 months before expiry lose value quickly.
- Maximum MicroStrategy exposure: If Bitcoin market turns bullish in 60 days, rotate max 20% of your Bitcoin portfolio into MSTR.
- Concentration on disruptive assets (AI, Bitcoin, Space) pays off with a long time horizon.
- Patience, discipline, and consistent practice are the keys to success.
