InvestAnswers|03. Juli
MASSIVE BUY SIGNALS Flash + Genius Compute & Macro Problems 🧠🚀
📈 Bitcoin & Crypto: First Buy Signals After the Bear Market Bloodbath 🩸🔍
- BlackRock IBIT ETF: After 2 months of massive sell-offs ($300-500M/day), the smallest outflow and an inflow of $300M (~5,000 BTC) occurred – a strong bullish signal.
- Bitcoin RSI (Monthly Chart): The Optimized Trend clearly shows bear markets in 2015, 2018, 2022, and the current one starting in 2025. Many expect 45–90 more days of bear, but positive signs are emerging.
- Net Supply Ratio: Flashed a buy signal for the first time since November 2022 – the bottom of the previous bear cycle. A very strong bottom signal, but not yet final capitulation.
- Bitcoin HODL Waves: 10+ year holding duration hit a new all-time high. At least 5M BTC are likely lost forever. Only ~20% of supply is liquid.
- Real World Assets (RWA): New all-time high of $3.4B – up 17x in one year. The trend is going vertical.
- New Tokenomics (SIMD Proposal): Could reduce inflation to 1.5% faster (in ~2 vs. 6 years) and increase daily burns from 650 to ~8,000 SOL. With AI agents and tokenized assets, burns could reach 20,000 SOL/day – potentially deflationary by 2028.
- Price Targets: Mert (Helius) sees SOL at $990 (Ethereum market cap) in the bull case, $600 in the bear case. Currently at ~$82.
- Global Stock Market Cap: New record at $166T (+23.6% in 12 months, driven by AI). Represents 18.4% of global wealth.
- Pension Systems: Collapsing worldwide. The critical ratio of 2.8–3 workers per pensioner is already breached in Spain, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, France, Italy. By 2055, the situation will be completely catastrophic. No pensions – only UBI.
- New York City: $47B and 892 companies have left (to Florida, Texas, etc.) – tax burden is driving capital away.
- Open Source Models: Chinese open-source models are closing in on frontier models (Anthropic, OpenAI). No moat left – the real advantage is compute & energy.
- SpaceX Compute: Surprises all hyperscalers with a new premium market for short-term, large-scale compute – at 4x higher margins than competitors. Bad news for Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI.
- Tesla:
- Robotaxi launches in Miami (FL) – after Dallas, Houston, Austin, Bay Area. Next: Las Vegas.
- New Model Y (6-seater): Longer, more luxurious, ~$60,000 – will crush minivan sales.
- Production record: Q2 at record levels (653,000 vehicle equivalents including Megapack).
- Accident: A Tesla Semi (without FSD) was involved in a fatal crash – global media coverage, but 16.5 deaths/day from trucks are normal.
- Palantir: Average price target $181.63 (high $230). Entry under $107 was successful. EU agencies, however, choose French alternatives.
- Bitcoin: Don't wait for $40,000 – buy in layers. The risk of missing the train is real.
- Pensions: If you expect a pension in 20–30 years, you will be disappointed. Self-reliance is the only way.
- Information Edge: Asymmetric information and alpha are unprecedented – use your advantage.
"When all the sheep cry 'Solana to $20, Bitcoin to $40,000,' the opposite happens."
