Welcome to Nofinity

The analyst provides a detailed insight into current markets, focusing on Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and AI stocks. He emphasizes that all discussed charts represent his own positions. The goal is to identify real alpha, not just to reflect on past predictions.

• Bitcoin (BTC):

  • Currently around $81,000. Key level is $82,000, which must be surpassed to move toward $85,000–$90,000.
  • Bottom at $60,000–$64,000 has been confirmed.
  • Top and Bottom Indicator shows a deep blue value zone, similar to January 2023 and April 2024.
  • Optimized Trend shows an uptrend since mid-April.
  • Key Insight: The Bitcoin vs. Gold chart suggests a new Bitcoin bull market in gold pairing.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR):

  • 200-week moving average acted as perfect support. Buy signal at $119 in early April.
  • Tracks Bitcoin, but NAV premium has increased.
  • CEO Michael Saylor mentioned potential Bitcoin sales – seen as a market inoculation measure.

• Solana (SOL):

  • Buy signal at $78–$80 („Kill Zone“). Currently around $97, with resistance expected at $200 within a year.
  • Clarity Act could boost Solana. Solana is positioned as the credit card for AI agents.
  • Impressive metrics: Most users, revenue, profit – at just 17% of Ethereum’s (ETH) market cap.

• Ethereum (ETH):

  • 40% below its level from 5 years ago. Analyst remains skeptical, favoring Solana as the layer-1 solution.

• Tesla (TSLA):

  • Target: $500 in 6 months (driven by robotaxi progress). Currently at $400.
  • Strategy: Buy on dips into the „Confluence Cloud“ (e.g., $330–$340), as price always reverts.
  • Safest risk-reward ratio compared to risky AI stocks.

• Nvidia (NVDA):

  • After breakout from the green box ($170–$200), new all-time high at $217.
  • Resistance becomes support around $195–$196. New range ($195–$217) ideal for covered calls.
  • Pair trading with NVDA/NVDS (short ticker): Uses standard deviations (e.g., 2.25) for long/short signals. 98% win rate in backtests.

• Other AI Names (IA 13):

  • AMD: From $187 to $420 in 5 weeks. Mean reversion shows overheating (red dot) – do not buy.
  • Micron (MU): +844% in 12 months. Similarly overheated – do not add.
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Moderate, not extreme. Hedging not recommended.
  • Marvell (MRVL): +126% in 60 days, but mean reversion at only 0.5 – no hedge needed.
  • Alphabet (GOOGL): +155%, but trend strong.
  • ARM: +136%, average compared to others.
  • Palantir (PLTR): In range ($128–$159). Buy signal at $128–$132 for bounce.
  • EchoStar (SATS): SpaceX proxy; analyst’s hedging mistake: Didn’t trust the model, causing position loss.

• Mean reversion as warning signal: For AMD, Micron, and Alab, rubber bands are extremely stretched – no buying after large moves.
• Top buyer trap: Costliest mistake for investors. Bottom fishing is safer.
• Range rider strategy: Nvidia, Alab, ISRG (Intuitive Surgical) show: Old resistance becomes new support. Ideal for covered calls.
• Copper: Only commodity in portfolio (besides Bitcoin). Long-term stable due to undersupply. Strategy: Buy at $5.87, sell at $6.20.
• Meme stocks (e.g., CarMax): Short, perfect short (from $863 to $4) – example of signals of buyer exhaustion and ATM.
• Zcash (ZEC): Shows clean charts without overheating (mean reversion not stretched). Potential for further run.
• Warning against yield shares (e.g., YTSL): “Garbage” – loss of 60% in 3 years. Selling covered calls yourself is better.
• SpaceX/space exploration: Only SpaceX is relevant – others lose long-term.

• FA for WHAT (Fundamental analysis for selection), TA for WHEN (Technical analysis for timing).
• Don’t lose money – the golden rule.
• Patience is key: Don’t jump out of positions due to greed; trust the models.

• Patreon: Detailed post on MicroStrategy and STRC.
• Backtesting tools: For pair trading (NVDA/NVDS) and range riders.
• Community thanks: To mods and viewers.

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