Introduction: Is the AI trade over?

Jack does not think the AI trade is dead, but markets are nervous: The semiconductor index saw nine consecutive sell-off days – the longest streak since 2006. Credit markets are also showing fear, especially around Coreweave.

SpaceX numbers: Gigantic visions

• SpaceX reported a 161% revenue increase; AI (or superintelligence) revenues grew 195% quarter-over-quarter and 830% year-over-year.
• Elon Musk plans to bring 13 to 20 gigawatts of compute capacity online by the end of 2027, largely powered by Nvidia chips.
• The internal price of $5.30 per GPU hour contrasts sharply with Coreweave bonds, which price in high default risk.
• A possible SpaceX-Tesla merger is being discussed – a special committee has been formed.

Credit markets: Panic in AI bonds

• Coreweave's unsecured bonds imply a cumulative default probability of around 60% by 2032.
• Credit investors demand safety, while VCs deliberately make extreme bets – a structural disconnect.
• Convertible and private credit markets are heavily exposed to AI infrastructure and data-center financing.

Anthropic: Growth is slowing

• Anthropic generated $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up from $11.6 billion in Q2. Sequential growth slowed from 147% to 45%.
• The leaked S-1 filing shows a GAAP net loss of $80.7 billion for H1 2026, but this largely reflects warrant-related accounting, not operating losses.
• Ramp data shows 55.9% of companies spend on AI; OpenAI and Anthropic are nearly tied, while xAI gains ground.

Semiconductors & earnings estimates

• Concerns about Chinese memory production (CXMT) weigh on chip stocks, since much of AI earnings growth is tied to memory.
• Jack believes sell-side estimates are not too high but too low: The current beat rate is 86.3%, versus a 10-year average of 77%.
• Example Lam Research: Management describes unprecedented demand, yet sell-side models remain conservative.

Market positioning and risks

• US-focused long/short hedge funds were in the 0th percentile of net equity exposure – many have already cut AI positions.
• The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, but Jack warns a true AI collapse could cost 30% or more.
• Ben Inker of GMO estimates supply alone could weigh 24% on the market; a real slowdown could mean -35% to -50%.

Conclusion

Jack and Max agree: The AI trade is not over, but near-term certainty only extends to about 2027. The coming weeks with many earnings reports will show whether markets regain confidence or skepticism persists.

In this analysis, Nick Batia from The Bitcoin Layer breaks down how Bitcoin and global markets reacted to the massive $6.3 billion Binance hack and broader macro headwinds.

🛡️ Market Reaction & Bitcoin Resilience

• Bitcoin dropped only ~1% on Friday (after -4% on the day of the hack).
• BTC outperformed other asset classes: Gold slumped -3%, the S&P 500 fell ~2%.
• Despite the shock, Bitcoin holds above its 2026 lows, though it is testing major support levels at $73k (200-day MA) and $67k (200-week MA).

💸 The $6.3 Billion Binance Hack Details

• Only the hot wallet was compromised; cold storage remains secure.
• Binance (CZ) immediately confirmed the attack and pledged to make all customers whole.
• The hacker used a sophisticated DeFi strategy: depositing frozen stablecoins as collateral to withdraw unfreezable crypto.
• Initial speculation points to state-sponsored North Korean hackers.

📉 Macroeconomic Warnings

• The NASDAQ (QQQ) is flashing a bearish divergence (price rising, momentum falling).
• Big Tech earnings (Google, Meta, Amazon) are underwhelming, signaling a rollover.
• The TBL Liquidity Index has been trending down for months, now catching up with risk assets.
• Month-end “window dressing” and tight repo markets (SOFR) could force further asset selling.

⚖️ Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Bullish Signal?

• Bitcoin actually gained versus Gold today (+1% daily), a green candle in a red market.
• This suggests BTC might be decoupling slightly from the macro risk-off move.
• Gold has broken its key trendlines and is targeting potentially $3,400.

🔮 Outlook

• Bitcoin holding the 200-day/200-week MAs is critical for the bullish structure.
• The hack eerily coincides with the FTX crash anniversary (midterm election week).
• Focus shifts to upcoming liquidity stress points (Nov 15, Dec 31).

Anthropic's IPO: Sky-High Revenue Meets a DAO-Governance Time Bomb

• Revenue Explosion: Anthropic is doing $5B in revenue (projecting $12B). The revenue per employee sits at $8.7M, a number that sounds normal in the crypto world but is astronomical for a traditional pre-IPO company.
• Profitability Isn't the Risk: Despite not being profitable yet, the speaker argues a tipping point is inevitable. Falling chip costs paired with surging AI intelligence value will make this company infinitely profitable. The real threat is the competition.
• The Controversial Voting Bloc: The seven founders control a pool of 50% of the voting rights and must vote in unison. This is framed as a DAO in disguise or a broken Multi-Sig destined for failure.
• FTX Parallels: Rooted in Effective Altruism (EA), the founders think they can fix governance. The speaker warns this is like having seven SBFs running FTX – internal coordination will eventually destroy the company.
• Final Verdict: A huge governance experiment with unlimited downside. The advice from the crypto-native analyst to the founders: "Just be normal."

Introduction: The Biggest Heist in History

• Ari Redbord from TRM Labs describes the Binance hack as the largest bank robbery in human history, with $6 billion stolen by North Korea.
• The magnitude was surprising, though not entirely unexpected, as hackers are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

Response and Crisis Management

• TRM Labs immediately set up a war room on Slack to coordinate with clients and partners.
• The Beacon Network, an information-sharing network covering 85% of centralized crypto volume, was activated to send real-time alerts.
• Stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle froze 40% of stolen funds (approx. $2.4 billion) within an hour—an unprecedented success.

Technical Details of the Hack

• The hack followed a classic Lazarus Group pattern: social engineering of a Binance engineer to gain access to private keys.
• Preparatory activities were visible: cash withdrawals via Tornado Cash 36 hours prior, test exploits on test wallets.
• North Korea was identified by linking addresses from previous hacks (e.g., Bybit and Drift).

Challenges and Industry Significance

• Recovering non-stable coins (BTC, ETH) remains difficult as they move through decentralized networks.
• North Korea's motivation extends beyond financial gain to destabilization and funding nuclear weapons programs (the $6 billion represents a third of North Korea's economy).
• The industry must prioritize cybersecurity and leverage national security tools to better counter North Korea.

Future Outlook: AI and Regulation

• AI could amplify future attacks by automating social engineering and scaling exploits.
• Legislative initiatives like the Genius Act would formalize the described measures (freezing, seizing).
• The community collaboration (e.g., Coinbase supporting Binance) is highlighted as a positive signal for the industry.

Current Situation of Booking Stock

• The stock is 24–28 % below its August high, P/E ratio 18, dividend yield 1 %.
• Operationally, the business continues to grow: Revenue +8 %, Net income +8 %, Diluted EPS +15 % (due to share buybacks).

Fundamentals & Capital Returns

• EBITDA margin improving, free cash flow yield at 8.3 %.
• Share repurchases of $4 billion last quarter (all-time high) – even exceeding free cash flow.
• Scenario: 12 % free cash flow growth + 1 % dividend yields a conservative 13 % total return per year.

Travel Industry & Growth Outlook

• Global travel volume stable to slightly growing.
• Booking benefits from inflation (higher booking prices → higher platform fees).
• Outlook: high single-digit to low double-digit earnings growth.

AI Disruption – The Major Risk

• AI tools like Deep Seek (free) or Gemini offer better travel recommendations than traditional portals.
• Booking charges 10–20 % fees; other players (e.g., Muses) prepare disruption – similar to how Booking once displaced established competitors with 40 % fees.
• The danger: margin pressure, not immediate destruction, but the risk/reward is too uncertain for the speaker.

Conclusion

• Booking looks fundamentally strong and cheap, but the AI transformation could massively change business models of tech platforms.
• Speaker finds the stock not attractive enough – too much risk of disruption (e.g., 50 % share price decline).

The Kimera K39: A New Hypercar Approach

• Kimera, known for the Evo37/38 (restomod tributes to the Lancia 037), presents something completely different with the K39: a brand-new ground-up car.
• Tech: bespoke carbon-fiber tub, manual gearbox, rear-wheel drive, 5.0-liter twin-turbo V8 from Koenigsegg.
• Stats: 1,000 hp, 1,200 Nm torque, 1,100 kg target weight. Smaller turbos than the Jesko mean less power but even better throttle response.

First Impression: Raw Prototype

• The yellow car shown is a very early prototype, fresh from blasting up the Goodwood hill – finished only on the morning of the first day.
• Currently running just 0.2 bar of boost (around 600 hp), but the engine sounds loud, vicious, and aggressive.
• Driving feel: More stable than the Evo models thanks to a lower, wider chassis geometry, with classic Koenigsegg aggression in acceleration and response.

Interior & Outlook

• The interior is temporary, trimmed just to make the car presentable for Goodwood. Production will feature exposed carbon fiber and beautiful details.
• Start-up procedure: ignition, fuel, clutch, start.

Comparison: Evo38 Martini Edition

• Evo38 Martini: 2.1-liter four-cylinder with supercharger and turbo, 640 hp (up from 600), E85-compatible, raised rev limit.
• Pricing: Evo38 Martini around £1 million, K39 likely £2 million.
• Key differences: restomod based on a Lancia Beta Montecarlo vs. brand-new car; raspy rally four-cylinder vs. fire-breathing Swedish V8.

Boss & Verdict

• Luca (ex-WRC driver and Kimera boss) takes the wheel and confirms: the K39 keeps the motorsport DNA, even though it is more circuit-oriented.
• Early signs are very good, but there is a long way to go before the finished product. The K39 could give billionaires something to think about beyond the Ferrari F80 or McLaren W1.

💥 The Biggest Hack in Crypto History

• Bitcoin drops below $77,000, and the market is under heavy pressure.
• Binance was hit by a theft of $6.3 billion – part of it has already been frozen.
• The alleged entry point: a laptop of a Binance developer. Attackers gained access to internal systems and triggered withdrawals through a „backdoor.“
• Suspected culprits: North Korean hackers (group „TraderTraitor“), similar to the Bybit incident.
• Binance states: customer funds are safe, losses will be covered from its own reserves. Withdrawals are expected to resume within about 45 hours.

📉 Market Reaction & Context

• Despite the bad news, the reaction is milder than in previous eras – past hacks like Mt. Gox ($470M) once destroyed the market.
• Many altcoins are down significantly, but Hyperliquid surged as much as +20 % on huge news: the NYSE parent company wants to use Hyperliquid as a trading engine – another step toward tokenization and closer ties between crypto and Wall Street.

🛡️ Security & Exchange Risks

• No exchange is 100 % safe – even Binance was considered very secure. What matters most is how an attack is handled.
• Regulated platforms with insurance (e.g., OKX Shield) offer extra protection.
• Important: don‘t click random links, avoid panic moves, and manage your own risk.

📊 Stock Market: A Silent Bear Market?

• The S&P 500 is moving sideways, but many tech stocks are crashing: Intel -28 %, AMD and Qualcomm nearly -10 %, Dell -9 %.
• Many companies reported decent earnings, but expectations were simply too high – „good numbers, bad sentiment.“
• The sell-off is rotating through sectors rather than hitting everything at once – a „bear market within a bull market.“ Gold and silver are correcting too, oil is rising, and geopolitical uncertainty remains.

⚖️ Outlook & Portfolio Strategy

• $76,000 is a critical support level. Below that, $73,000 could be next, and in an extreme case $64,000/$60,000.
• Long-term, the host remains bullish on Bitcoin, but expects continued volatility and rough patches.
• In the portfolio challenge, positions were added below the $10,000 mark (including Apple, ServiceNow). Key principles: cash reserves, risk management, and independent decisions.

Bottom line: Crisis and opportunity are close together. Those who think long-term, diversify broadly, and avoid panic can use the turmoil – but only with clear risk management.