Introduction: Is the AI trade over?

Jack does not think the AI trade is dead, but markets are nervous: The semiconductor index saw nine consecutive sell-off days – the longest streak since 2006. Credit markets are also showing fear, especially around Coreweave.

SpaceX numbers: Gigantic visions

• SpaceX reported a 161% revenue increase; AI (or superintelligence) revenues grew 195% quarter-over-quarter and 830% year-over-year.
• Elon Musk plans to bring 13 to 20 gigawatts of compute capacity online by the end of 2027, largely powered by Nvidia chips.
• The internal price of $5.30 per GPU hour contrasts sharply with Coreweave bonds, which price in high default risk.
• A possible SpaceX-Tesla merger is being discussed – a special committee has been formed.

Credit markets: Panic in AI bonds

• Coreweave's unsecured bonds imply a cumulative default probability of around 60% by 2032.
• Credit investors demand safety, while VCs deliberately make extreme bets – a structural disconnect.
• Convertible and private credit markets are heavily exposed to AI infrastructure and data-center financing.

Anthropic: Growth is slowing

• Anthropic generated $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up from $11.6 billion in Q2. Sequential growth slowed from 147% to 45%.
• The leaked S-1 filing shows a GAAP net loss of $80.7 billion for H1 2026, but this largely reflects warrant-related accounting, not operating losses.
• Ramp data shows 55.9% of companies spend on AI; OpenAI and Anthropic are nearly tied, while xAI gains ground.

Semiconductors & earnings estimates

• Concerns about Chinese memory production (CXMT) weigh on chip stocks, since much of AI earnings growth is tied to memory.
• Jack believes sell-side estimates are not too high but too low: The current beat rate is 86.3%, versus a 10-year average of 77%.
• Example Lam Research: Management describes unprecedented demand, yet sell-side models remain conservative.

Market positioning and risks

• US-focused long/short hedge funds were in the 0th percentile of net equity exposure – many have already cut AI positions.
• The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, but Jack warns a true AI collapse could cost 30% or more.
• Ben Inker of GMO estimates supply alone could weigh 24% on the market; a real slowdown could mean -35% to -50%.

Conclusion

Jack and Max agree: The AI trade is not over, but near-term certainty only extends to about 2027. The coming weeks with many earnings reports will show whether markets regain confidence or skepticism persists.

Anthropic's IPO: Sky-High Revenue Meets a DAO-Governance Time Bomb

• Revenue Explosion: Anthropic is doing $5B in revenue (projecting $12B). The revenue per employee sits at $8.7M, a number that sounds normal in the crypto world but is astronomical for a traditional pre-IPO company.
• Profitability Isn't the Risk: Despite not being profitable yet, the speaker argues a tipping point is inevitable. Falling chip costs paired with surging AI intelligence value will make this company infinitely profitable. The real threat is the competition.
• The Controversial Voting Bloc: The seven founders control a pool of 50% of the voting rights and must vote in unison. This is framed as a DAO in disguise or a broken Multi-Sig destined for failure.
• FTX Parallels: Rooted in Effective Altruism (EA), the founders think they can fix governance. The speaker warns this is like having seven SBFs running FTX – internal coordination will eventually destroy the company.
• Final Verdict: A huge governance experiment with unlimited downside. The advice from the crypto-native analyst to the founders: "Just be normal."

Introduction: The Biggest Heist in History

• Ari Redbord from TRM Labs describes the Binance hack as the largest bank robbery in human history, with $6 billion stolen by North Korea.
• The magnitude was surprising, though not entirely unexpected, as hackers are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

Response and Crisis Management

• TRM Labs immediately set up a war room on Slack to coordinate with clients and partners.
• The Beacon Network, an information-sharing network covering 85% of centralized crypto volume, was activated to send real-time alerts.
• Stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle froze 40% of stolen funds (approx. $2.4 billion) within an hour—an unprecedented success.

Technical Details of the Hack

• The hack followed a classic Lazarus Group pattern: social engineering of a Binance engineer to gain access to private keys.
• Preparatory activities were visible: cash withdrawals via Tornado Cash 36 hours prior, test exploits on test wallets.
• North Korea was identified by linking addresses from previous hacks (e.g., Bybit and Drift).

Challenges and Industry Significance

• Recovering non-stable coins (BTC, ETH) remains difficult as they move through decentralized networks.
• North Korea's motivation extends beyond financial gain to destabilization and funding nuclear weapons programs (the $6 billion represents a third of North Korea's economy).
• The industry must prioritize cybersecurity and leverage national security tools to better counter North Korea.

Future Outlook: AI and Regulation

• AI could amplify future attacks by automating social engineering and scaling exploits.
• Legislative initiatives like the Genius Act would formalize the described measures (freezing, seizing).
• The community collaboration (e.g., Coinbase supporting Binance) is highlighted as a positive signal for the industry.

Current Situation of Booking Stock

• The stock is 24–28 % below its August high, P/E ratio 18, dividend yield 1 %.
• Operationally, the business continues to grow: Revenue +8 %, Net income +8 %, Diluted EPS +15 % (due to share buybacks).

Fundamentals & Capital Returns

• EBITDA margin improving, free cash flow yield at 8.3 %.
• Share repurchases of $4 billion last quarter (all-time high) – even exceeding free cash flow.
• Scenario: 12 % free cash flow growth + 1 % dividend yields a conservative 13 % total return per year.

Travel Industry & Growth Outlook

• Global travel volume stable to slightly growing.
• Booking benefits from inflation (higher booking prices → higher platform fees).
• Outlook: high single-digit to low double-digit earnings growth.

AI Disruption – The Major Risk

• AI tools like Deep Seek (free) or Gemini offer better travel recommendations than traditional portals.
• Booking charges 10–20 % fees; other players (e.g., Muses) prepare disruption – similar to how Booking once displaced established competitors with 40 % fees.
• The danger: margin pressure, not immediate destruction, but the risk/reward is too uncertain for the speaker.

Conclusion

• Booking looks fundamentally strong and cheap, but the AI transformation could massively change business models of tech platforms.
• Speaker finds the stock not attractive enough – too much risk of disruption (e.g., 50 % share price decline).

The Kimera K39: A New Hypercar Approach

• Kimera, known for the Evo37/38 (restomod tributes to the Lancia 037), presents something completely different with the K39: a brand-new ground-up car.
• Tech: bespoke carbon-fiber tub, manual gearbox, rear-wheel drive, 5.0-liter twin-turbo V8 from Koenigsegg.
• Stats: 1,000 hp, 1,200 Nm torque, 1,100 kg target weight. Smaller turbos than the Jesko mean less power but even better throttle response.

First Impression: Raw Prototype

• The yellow car shown is a very early prototype, fresh from blasting up the Goodwood hill – finished only on the morning of the first day.
• Currently running just 0.2 bar of boost (around 600 hp), but the engine sounds loud, vicious, and aggressive.
• Driving feel: More stable than the Evo models thanks to a lower, wider chassis geometry, with classic Koenigsegg aggression in acceleration and response.

Interior & Outlook

• The interior is temporary, trimmed just to make the car presentable for Goodwood. Production will feature exposed carbon fiber and beautiful details.
• Start-up procedure: ignition, fuel, clutch, start.

Comparison: Evo38 Martini Edition

• Evo38 Martini: 2.1-liter four-cylinder with supercharger and turbo, 640 hp (up from 600), E85-compatible, raised rev limit.
• Pricing: Evo38 Martini around £1 million, K39 likely £2 million.
• Key differences: restomod based on a Lancia Beta Montecarlo vs. brand-new car; raspy rally four-cylinder vs. fire-breathing Swedish V8.

Boss & Verdict

• Luca (ex-WRC driver and Kimera boss) takes the wheel and confirms: the K39 keeps the motorsport DNA, even though it is more circuit-oriented.
• Early signs are very good, but there is a long way to go before the finished product. The K39 could give billionaires something to think about beyond the Ferrari F80 or McLaren W1.

💥 The Biggest Hack in Crypto History

• Bitcoin drops below $77,000, and the market is under heavy pressure.
• Binance was hit by a theft of $6.3 billion – part of it has already been frozen.
• The alleged entry point: a laptop of a Binance developer. Attackers gained access to internal systems and triggered withdrawals through a „backdoor.“
• Suspected culprits: North Korean hackers (group „TraderTraitor“), similar to the Bybit incident.
• Binance states: customer funds are safe, losses will be covered from its own reserves. Withdrawals are expected to resume within about 45 hours.

📉 Market Reaction & Context

• Despite the bad news, the reaction is milder than in previous eras – past hacks like Mt. Gox ($470M) once destroyed the market.
• Many altcoins are down significantly, but Hyperliquid surged as much as +20 % on huge news: the NYSE parent company wants to use Hyperliquid as a trading engine – another step toward tokenization and closer ties between crypto and Wall Street.

🛡️ Security & Exchange Risks

• No exchange is 100 % safe – even Binance was considered very secure. What matters most is how an attack is handled.
• Regulated platforms with insurance (e.g., OKX Shield) offer extra protection.
• Important: don‘t click random links, avoid panic moves, and manage your own risk.

📊 Stock Market: A Silent Bear Market?

• The S&P 500 is moving sideways, but many tech stocks are crashing: Intel -28 %, AMD and Qualcomm nearly -10 %, Dell -9 %.
• Many companies reported decent earnings, but expectations were simply too high – „good numbers, bad sentiment.“
• The sell-off is rotating through sectors rather than hitting everything at once – a „bear market within a bull market.“ Gold and silver are correcting too, oil is rising, and geopolitical uncertainty remains.

⚖️ Outlook & Portfolio Strategy

• $76,000 is a critical support level. Below that, $73,000 could be next, and in an extreme case $64,000/$60,000.
• Long-term, the host remains bullish on Bitcoin, but expects continued volatility and rough patches.
• In the portfolio challenge, positions were added below the $10,000 mark (including Apple, ServiceNow). Key principles: cash reserves, risk management, and independent decisions.

Bottom line: Crisis and opportunity are close together. Those who think long-term, diversify broadly, and avoid panic can use the turmoil – but only with clear risk management.

Key Takeaway

• Bitcoin is around $77,000, and the expected Q4 dump in a midterm year is taking shape.
• Historical patterns point to another possible low, though timing always remains uncertain.

Why the Dump Was Expected

• A weekly close below $83K for two consecutive weeks would confirm a fakeout to the upside.
• Many other markets (gold, silver, South Korean and Chinese indices) already show the typical structure of Q1 low, summer low, and Q4 low.
• Bitcoin had remained relatively strong compared to other assets – historically, a sharp catch-down often follows.

Macro vs. Technicals

• Technical analysis (RSI, MACD, golden crosses) looks bullish.
• The macro perspective is bearish, especially after September rate hikes in midterm years: Bitcoin usually holds up for about 1.5 months before the final Q4 low appears.
• Events like the SpaceX IPO or the upcoming Anthropic IPO can act as triggers – but narratives usually follow price, not the other way around.

Two Possible Scenarios

• Scenario 1: Quick crash – Bitcoin drops directly and finds a low soon, similar to the FTX collapse in 2022.
• Scenario 2: Another bounce – Bitcoin falls to the bull market support band, bounces, and then gets the final hit after the midterms. Historically, the lowest prices almost always occurred after the midterms.

Important Notes

• Apathetic tops tend to cause more fakeouts in both directions.
• In midterm years, the goal is often to preserve capital – not to maximize gains.
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is recommended as a robust approach to avoid getting chopped up by short-term swings.
• Staying alert can reveal opportunities – not just in Bitcoin, but in many other markets as well.

Conclusion

History is repeating itself: Q1 low, summer low, Q4 low – even in 2026. Understanding this can help you position better and avoid being shaken by short-term narratives.