Welcome to Nofinity

📉 Markets Under Pressure: Iran, Oil & AI Stocks in Focus

Markets are starting the week nervously. The renewed conflict in the Middle East is driving up the oil price, while AI stocks are weakening and cryptocurrencies are awaiting US inflation data.

• Iran has resumed attacks on shipping, and the US has tightened oil sanctions and launched direct strikes.
• Trump has declared the ceasefire over.
• Oil price (Brent) has risen above $79 per barrel.

• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at its lowest level since 1983 (sufficient until Feb. 2027). Storage levels in Cushing are also critically low.
• China has reduced demand but is now buying only half as much Iranian crude oil as in the previous month. Renewed demand could massively impact the oil market.
• Three scenarios for Brent:
  • A) Full closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Over $100/barrel (thinner SPR reserves).
  • B) Military securing & new sanctions: $80-90/barrel. No crisis, but higher.
  • C) Rapid de-escalation: Return to $70-75/barrel.

• Nvidia's P/E ratio fell to its lowest level in seven years (20x), making it cheaper than the average of the NASDAQ and S&P 500. This could indicate a weakening valuation of the AI trade.
• OpenAI is being sued by Apple for alleged theft of trade secrets. Additionally, its head of safety is leaving the company.
• The Fed expresses concerns about demand-driven inflation from the AI buildout.

• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the 200-week line and struggling with the 64-65k USD resistance. A break below support could lead to 57k USD.
• Coinbase Premium is in its longest negative streak ever (over 2 months) but is slowly recovering.
• Robinhood Chain surpassed Hyperliquid with over $560M in DEX volume – at least in the short term.
• Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan) warns of private blockchains (like JPM's Kinexus) as a bigger threat to Layer-1s (Ethereum, Solana) than to Bitcoin.

• Tuesday: US CPI (Inflation) – crucial for interest rate expectations.
• Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell's Senate testimony & PPI (Producer Prices).
• Thursday: US Retail Sales & Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Vote on the Clarity Act in the House of Representatives.

• DAO Heist: A user drained $20M from the Bonk DAO treasury via a legitimate governance proposal that no one noticed.
• Celeb Coins: Ansem admits he was wrong about celebrity coins (celebrities are broke and don't care about crypto).
• Private Blockchains: Travis Kling questions why real companies (Robinhood, Stripe, JP Morgan) build their own chains instead of using existing L1/L2s.
• Musk vs. Altman: Elon Musk calls Sam Altman a 'scammer'; Altman retorts with Musk's own SpaceX data centers in space.

• Bitcoin 4h: Potential long setup at 58-59k USD (order block). Caution advised short-term.
• Bitcoin Daily: Double bottom formation with a target of 71k USD. Currently printing a red sell signal.
• Bitcoin Weekly: Potential large W-pattern (double bottom) with a target of 95k USD. Money flow needs to turn around.

This week is dominated by geopolitical risks and US inflation data. The oil price remains a key factor, while the crypto market awaits a clear signal. Technical indicators suggest a potential recovery, but it could be overshadowed by macro events.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

• Sentiment echoes a new bull market with strong upward price action, especially for Bitcoin, which is approaching the $80,000 region.
• The weekly trend reversal is confirmed as price has broken above the 200-day moving average.
• Caution is advised, however, as price enters a resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000. A retest of the $60,000 area is possible.
• Analysts expect consolidation before a potential further move higher.

• Zcash (ZEC): Strong upward momentum; focus on breakouts after a sweep of a base/low. Potential price target: over $1,000.
• Pump.fun: Waiting for consolidation to find a long entry.
• ENA: Potential entry after a pullback into the $13-14 zone.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): Waiting for a retest of the $70 level, then looking for a reclaim and continuation of the uptrend.
• Memecoins (Robin Hood Ecosystem): The rotation is extremely fast. Currently, Cash Cat is the favorite, but the strategy is to buy dips after a breakout.

• Caution: A pure uptrend is not guaranteed. The trader employs a long-term strategy (accumulation) combined with short-term momentum trades.
• Risk Management: Stop-loss is essential. Every trade is defined with a clear invalidation (e.g., a close below a previous low).
• Focus: Currently focusing on a small basket of 5-6 assets to avoid information overload.
• Portfolio Building: The best entries are during periods of calm and stability, not after a strong pump. Bitcoin is seen as a long-term asset (target: $500,000).

• Treasury Bond buybacks (Scott Bessant) are driving Bitcoin and Gold as non-yielding assets.
• Equities (stocks) are correcting, however, due to higher interest rate expectations and valuation issues.
• Bitcoin ETFs show strong inflows, supporting demand.
• MicroStrategy did not buy this week, suggesting a natural upswing without artificial demand.

• The market shows real strength, but entering a resistance zone requires discipline and stops.
• Momentum trades (breakouts) and dips can be profitable.
• Important: No blind buying at highs; wait for good entries with clear risk parameters.