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• Stock Performance: Google stock has surged (from $100 to nearly $400) driven by AI optimism, while fears about ChatGPT have not materialized.
• Adjusted Earnings: Reported earnings include one-time gains ($55B from Antropic investment). True net earnings stand at $105B, giving a real P/E of 40 (vs. reported 26).
• Risk Factors: Free cash flow is declining (only $10B last quarter) while capital expenditures are rising sharply. Return on these investments needs scrutiny.
• Intrinsic Value: Assuming 12% annual growth and a P/E of 20, fair value is about half the current price. Even optimistic assumptions (15% growth, P/E 25) only match the current stock price. A conservative case (8% growth, P/E 15) would justify only 30% of today's price.
• Conclusion: The stock is “priced for perfection” – not a good buying opportunity now. In comparison, Microsoft trades at a P/E of 23 and appears cheaper.

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🔍 Analysis: The Rate Cutting Cycle is Over

In this video, Benjamin Cowen argues that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is finished and that a new rate-hiking cycle has already begun globally.

• Employment dropped by 23,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
• Labor force participation is declining sharply, keeping unemployment low. Job openings have normalized to pre-pandemic levels.
• Layoffs remain low – no imminent recession risk.

• Inflation is not fully tamed; rising oil prices could push CPI higher again.
• The 30-year Treasury yield is climbing toward 5%, as markets fear reaccelerating inflation (not a recession).

• The Fed hasn't moved rates since 2025. Cowen expects a token 25 bps hike – either in September or December 2026.
• Many other central banks (Eurozone, Australia, Japan, New Zealand) have already raised rates. The GDP-weighted policy rate is rising worldwide.

• A rate hike is not the end of the world – it signals a strong economy. Historically (e.g., the 1990s), rate hikes caused only short corrections.
• Cowen predicts a 10–20% stock market correction, starting in September/October.
• For Bitcoin, this could mark the cycle bottom before the next bull run.

Key takeaway: The rate-cutting cycle is over – investors should prepare for stable to slightly rising rates, which can create long-term opportunities.

Note: The „Investing Through The Cycles“ conference is scheduled for November 21, 2026. Ticket prices increase after September 1.

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