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Latest Analyses(7)

Inside the Secret Crypto Deals Shielded by Trump Officials
Coin Bureau|04. Juni

Inside the Secret Crypto Deals Shielded by Trump Officials

Background: From 'Operation Chokepoint 2.0' to Selective Enforcement
  • Under the Biden administration, the CFTC handled over 80 crypto enforcement cases; under Trump, this dropped to just two in 16 months.
  • The original thesis of the industry being 'weaponized' under Gensler is now being replaced by a new form of regulatory capture: politically connected insiders benefit, while others are ignored.
The Three Key Firms and Their Ties to Trump
  • Poly Market: Received investment from Donald Trump Jr. via 1789 Capital. Despite CFTC staff warnings about inadequate fraud protections, the investigation was dropped. A Columbia University study found coordinated wash trading (peak 60% of volume in December 2024). A US soldier used classified government intel and won $400,000.
  • Crypto.com: In October 2025, signed an exclusive partnership with Trump Media & Technology Group (Truth Social). Staff raised concerns about unfair treatment of small retail investors.
  • Gemini Titan (by the Winklevoss twins): Tied to Eric Trump (American Bitcoin Corp). CFTC staff noted that the mandatory regulatory review had not been completed before operations began.
The 'Revolving Door' Mechanism: Insiders Move to Industry
  • Caroline Tham (acting CFTC chair until Dec. 2025) pushed for approvals of the three firms and later became Chief Legal Officer at Moonpay – a partner of Poly Market.
  • Bridget Wales (senior counsel) wrote a pre-prepared memo endorsing Gemini Titan while the review was still ongoing. She later became General Counsel at Gemini Titan.
  • Michael Celic (current CFTC chair) has near-unilateral power as the sole commissioner.
Structural Risks: History Repeating Itself
  • FTX collapse: $8 billion loss for customers; SBF lobbied for softer regulation via the CFTC – similar patterns here.
  • Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager: Customers were ruled as unsecured creditors and lost everything.
  • BlockFills (Feb. 2026): Customers faced losses.
Practical Implications for Investors
  1. Clarity Act: The bill granting more power to the CFTC must include ethical rules and a cooling-off period for commissioners moving to industry.
  2. Warning on prediction markets: Poly Market and similar platforms are themselves the counterparty and have inadequate fraud protections.
  3. Self-custody: For crypto assets not actively traded, a personal wallet is the best defense.
  4. Commission vacancies: If seats remain unfilled, power concentrates – historically, this ends badly.
Conclusion: Invitation to Debate
  • The next major crypto crash won't come from a regulatory crackdown but from a regulator looking away while a politically connected firm builds something it cannot sustain.