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• The video analyzes gold (currently at $4,100) and its seasonal behavior in midterm election years.
• Focus is on the relationship between gold, the long end of the yield curve (10-year Treasury), and the US dollar.

• In midterm years, gold usually bottoms in summer; sometimes later (October/November).
• Examples: 2022 (July low, then lower low in Oct/Nov), 2018 (August low, higher low in Oct), 2014 (low in Oct).
• The pattern is mixed – sometimes higher low, sometimes lower low.

• Gold tends to fall when long-term yields rise (as in 2018 and 2022).
• Historically, gold bottomed slightly before the 10-year yield peaked.
• Current situation: The 10-year yield has been rising for eight weeks straight – signaling that a gold bottom may be near.
• The speaker estimates a local top for the 10-year yield around 5.12%, and for the 30-year around 6%.

• Oil prices and Middle East conflict: Unpredictable effects on yields. Oil is slowly climbing, which could push yields higher.
• Monetary policy: The Fed funds rate (around 4%) is well below the estimated neutral rate (2-year yield at 4.9%), making policy less restrictive and pushing long-term yields up.
• US Dollar: It has been rising since summer 2025, which pressures gold in the short term – a pattern seen in 2018 and 2022.

• Signal for a turn: A divergence between rising yields and a rising gold price would be the first sign of a yield peak.
• Gold may form a low over the next few weeks (September/October) and then move higher.
• Equity markets: Remain resilient but could correct on a growth scare. The S&P 500 is holding up surprisingly well despite rising yields.
• Conclusion: Current gold behavior is not unusual. Uncertainty remains high – the speaker advocates regular investing in index funds rather than market timing.

In this video, Morgan shows how to make a delicious Apple Spiced Latte as an alternative to the classic Pumpkin Spice Latte. The base is a homemade Apple Spice Syrup that works for both hot and cold drinks.

• 200 g apple cider (or apple juice)
• 300 g light brown sugar
• 2 cinnamon sticks
• 20 whole cloves (1.5 g)
• 6–7 whole cardamom pods (1.5 g)
• 1.5 g salt
• Optional: 4–5 strips of orange peel

1. Combine all ingredients except salt in a saucepan and bring to a simmer over medium heat.
2. Simmer gently for 5–7 minutes, stirring occasionally.
3. Remove from heat and let cool completely – spices remain inside for further infusion.
4. Stir in salt, then strain into a bottle.
5. Store in the fridge for 1.5–2 weeks.

• Add 22 ml syrup to a cup.
• Pour a double shot of espresso (approx. 60 ml) and a pinch of cinnamon, stir.
• Steam 120–150 ml milk (oat milk recommended) and pour over.
• Optional: express orange peel oil over the top.

• Combine 15 ml syrup, double espresso, a pinch of cinnamon, and 120 ml oat milk in a shaker.
• Froth with a handheld frother for 15–20 seconds until fluffy and increased in volume.
• Pour over ice.
• Garnish with orange peel.

The Apple Spice Syrup is a flavorful twist on fall drinks, perfect for coffee, chai, or even pancakes. Morgan's upcoming book "Coffee for Here" (October 2025) features many more recipes.

In this video, we taste a very special espresso: Komal from India, now in our range for the second time. This year, it surprises with a rounder, softer profile – a tamed lion compared to last year's wild character.

• Aromas: Grape, sweet passion fruit, dark chocolate/praline, exotic fruits
• Character: Very balanced, creamy, soft and sweet – the acidity is playful but not dominant
• Specialty: Fruity sweetness instead of caramel, with impressive balance

• Dose: 20 g coffee in the portafilter
• Yield: 42 g in the cup
• Extraction time: 24–30 seconds
• Grind size: Very fine; use a WDT tool if you notice clumping
• Pressure profile: 3.5 bar for the first 8 seconds, then 6–7 bar
• Temperature: About 1–1.5 degrees higher to balance the acidity

The coffee comes from Komal and Ache (South India Coffee Company). They ferment the cherries for 5 days anaerobically in sealed tanks and, this year, added lactic acid bacteria – this gives the coffee its soft, sweet texture. The two are true pioneers: they research new coffee species (incl. Excelsa, hybrids) and run the family business in the fifth generation.

Komal is a versatile espresso with a wide range of extraction times – try different brew methods to explore its various flavors. It stays wonderfully soft and complex both hot and cold. A coffee that shows where coffee can go in the future.

The dollar performs four distinct roles: pricing global commodities, settling trade, acting as a central bank reserve, and securing the global debt system. Each role has a different exit door, and the world is walking through some of them while locking itself deeper into others.

1. The Trust Crisis (Gold)

The G7 freezing $300 billion in Russian reserves erased the assumption that reserves were safe. Central banks responded by buying gold at a record pace (over 1,000 tons/year compared to the historical 400–500 tons). Gold surged to $4,300/oz as the ultimate hedge against custody risk.

2. Fragmentation (Trade & Payments)

China's CIPS payment system now processes over 100 trillion yuan annually. However, the Mbridge project (BRICS) collapsed after the BIS pulled out due to sanctions, splitting the world into competing financial blocs (G7 vs. BRICS+). Countries are willingly paying a premium to build backup pipes they hope they never have to use.

3. The Crypto Paradox (Expansion)

While governments diversify on one side, citizens are rushing into the dollar via stablecoins on the other.

• Tether holds roughly $141 billion in US debt, making it the 17th largest holder globally.
• Stablecoin settlement volume reached $7.2 trillion/month, overtaking the ACH network.
• In Argentina, 94% of crypto trading volume is stablecoins.

4. The Debt Trap (Stickiness)

$14.7 trillion in dollar-denominated debt ensures the world must keep buying dollars. No other currency (Euro or Yuan) has the necessary depth or openness. The dollar still sits on one side of 88% of all FX transactions.

5. Bitcoin as the Ultimate Hedge

Bitcoin increasingly correlates with gold, not stocks. It hedges not the convenience of the dollar, but the credibility of its issuer. It allows individuals who cannot buy tons of gold to express the same distrust.

Bottom Line: There is no single doomsday for the dollar. Pricing stays, settlements fragment, reserves rotate into metal, and debt traps everyone. The dollar is expanding through private crypto adoption while shrinking in central bank trust.

Dr. Gert Kommer shares his unsparing assessment of the current financial markets. He warns specific groups of investors about the biggest risks and outlines the strategy that counts now.

Tech Valuations & AI: Over-optimism with Risk

• The AI euphoria is driving prices, but real economic earnings remain uncertain. Many tech valuations are based on hope rather than solid cash flows.
• "Regression to the Mean": Historically, over-optimism is often followed by a correction – valuations can drop quickly.
• A large number of investors are heavily overweighted in US and tech stocks, creating a significant cluster risk.

Interest Rates & Bonds: The End of an Era

• Long-term bonds are taboo! In an environment of rising rates, they are "fatal" for returns.
• Goodbye to the 60/40 Portfolio: This standard strategy was a product of a 40-year bond bull run that is now over. Investors should focus on short maturities (money market).

Real Estate: The Tsunami is Coming

• Demographic "Double Whammy": The Boomer generation is leaving the market. Far more and larger homes are being freed up than young people are demanding.
• In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, residential real estate prices in Germany have already fallen by 20%.
• Kommer calls open real estate funds a "price fiction" and a "deceptive package" – too opaque, illiquid, and expensive.

The Right Strategy: Scenarios Instead of Crash Predictions

• No betting on a crash, but a scenario analysis: The portfolio must survive bad times.
• Global diversification is mandatory: USA (30-50%), Europe (~33%), Asia Pacific, and Emerging Markets.
• Admixture: Bitcoin and Gold (max. 10% of total assets) are worth considering but require strict rebalancing.
• Steer clear of Private Equity and IPOs for the average private investor. Too expensive, too opaque, too risky.