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Latest Analyses(7)

Gold: Price Path and Forecast for the Rest of the Year
Benjamin Cowen|13. Juli

Gold: Price Path and Forecast for the Rest of the Year

Introduction: Gold Forecast for the Rest of 2026

In this video, the speaker analyzes the current gold price (around $4,000) and provides a detailed outlook for the remainder of 2026. He emphasizes that gold often undergoes a correction during midterm election years (like 2026) before recovering.

Main Thesis: Correction and Expected Bottom
  • The speaker expects a major correction in 2026, with a bottom between July and October.
  • This assessment is based on seasonality and historical comparisons with previous midterm years (2018, 2022, 2006, etc.).
  • On average, gold bottoms in early July during midterm years, though individual cases (like 2014) have seen lows as late as November.
Current Market Situation
  • Gold is currently trading about 7-8% below its yearly opening price – similar to 2018 and 2022 at this point.
  • A recent death cross (50-day moving average below 200-day) has occurred, which often triggers a short-term rally. However, the 50-day MA has not been tested since May.
Technical Support: Bull Market Support Band
  • The Bull Market Support Band for gold consists of the 20-month SMA and 21-month EMA – currently around $3,800 – $3,841.
  • This support zone has not been touched since 2023. The speaker expects gold to find its bottom there (or slightly above).
  • Historical bull markets (1970s, 2000s) show that gold usually rebounds strongly after testing this band.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
  • The current drawdown of 28% is similar to 2006 (26%), when gold did not quite reach the support band but later rallied to new highs.
  • During the 2008 financial crisis, gold corrected more sharply but recovered faster than stocks (S&P 500), reaching new all-time highs by 2009.
  • The tariff shock in early 2025 also showed gold’s resilience: it barely dropped and recovered quickly.
Outlook and Timing
  • The speaker believes gold will form a bottom within the next few months (July to October).
  • Afterwards, he expects a recovery and renewed uptrend starting in late 2026 and continuing into 2027.
  • Even if the Bull Market Support Band fails, he anticipates a multi-month rally that would confirm his thesis.
  • For the S&P 500, he predicts a shallow correction in June, a rally in July, and a larger drop in August/September.
Conclusion

The speaker remains bullish on gold: the midterm-year correction is normal, and gold will emerge stronger on the other side. The “Investing Through the Cycles” conference in Miami (November 2026) is highlighted as a key event to discuss developments.

Can Relieving Stress Actually Reverse Biological Age? | Dr Martin Picard
Modern Healthspan|11. Okt.

Can Relieving Stress Actually Reverse Biological Age? | Dr Martin Picard

Core Message: Stress Relief Enables Healing and May Reverse Aging Processes

Dr. Martin Picard, director of the Mitochondrial Psychobiology Lab, explains that stress isn't inherently harmful; rather, the capacity for recovery is the key to longevity. The body has an innate healing ability that is activated through rest periods.

Key Insights from the Conversation:
  • Gray hair is reversible: Graying linked to stress can actually reverse – a visible example of the plasticity of aging.
  • Allostatic load: Chronic anticipation of stress consumes energy, leading to wear and tear. The solution isn't avoiding stress but finding intentional rest and regeneration times.
  • Focus on mitochondria:
    • Stress (e.g., cortisol) increases cellular energy consumption by up to 60%.
    • Chronic stress diverts energy from repair processes like DNA repair and telomere maintenance, accelerating aging.
    • Hypermetabolism in aging cells drains energy from the body, similar to cancer or sepsis.
  • Mind-body connection: Emotions and thoughts directly affect mitochondria – via cortisol, blood sugar levels, and mitochondrial DNA leaks that trigger inflammation.
  • Practical steps: Mindfulness, meditation, and exercise help to be present in the moment, enabling healing. The goal isn't a stress-free life, but balancing stress with recovery.
  • Marker for mitochondrial stress: GDF15 (growth differentiation factor 15) indicates energetic stress – ideally low at rest.
Conclusion:

Dr. Picard encourages proactive rest, not passive stress avoidance. The body heals itself when given the chance – this is the foundation for a healthy lifespan.

Oracle's $500 Billion AI Bet Is BREAKING
Coin Bureau|11. Okt.

Oracle's $500 Billion AI Bet Is BREAKING

Stargate Project in Trouble

The Stargate project – a joint venture by Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank with up to $500 billion in planned investment – aims to build massive AI infrastructure in the US. However, its flagship site Project Jupiter in New Mexico faces delays, not from chip shortages, but from a natural gas pipeline.

  • Issue: The 27 km "Green Chile Project" pipeline for fuel cell power is stuck in regulatory battles. State land office denied rights, pushing completion from August 2025 to February 2027.
  • Oracle's response: Oracle issued a force majeure notice to operator Stack Infrastructure, seeking the right to halt lease payments for up to 3 years if the site isn't ready by 2028.
  • Financial ripple effect: The site relies on $18 billion in construction loans; Oracle itself carries $156 billion in debt with negative free cash flow. Its credit rating was downgraded to BBB (S&P), just above junk.
  • Founder risk: Larry Ellison pledged over 430 million Oracle shares as collateral for personal loans – more than a third of his stake. Oracle's stock dropped 56% from its peak, and a planned sale of 50 million shares was abruptly canceled.

Conclusion: Stargate was meant to validate the AI boom, but it highlights how fragile the massive debt structures are when facing mundane obstacles like a pipeline. A single local delay could unravel the entire chain from lenders to founder wealth.