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Latest Analyses(6)

Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band
Benjamin Cowen|27. Juli

Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band

Overview

In this video, the speaker analyzes the current Bitcoin price action and compares it to the 2018 bear market. He notes that the market structure is repeating itself and expects a short-lived rally followed by a decline.

Key Points
  • Current Price: Bitcoin is trading between $64,000 and $65,000, nearly unchanged from the previous week.
  • Historical Patterns: In July of midterm years (e.g., 2018, 2022), there was often a rally of 20–40%. So far, the increase is about 10%.
  • Comparison with 2018: The market structure is similar: a low in February, a higher low in March/April, another low in June/July, then a rally to the "Bear Market Resistance Band."
  • Expectation: The speaker suspects Bitcoin will be rejected at this resistance level and fall again in August/September, similar to 2018.
  • Feeling vs. Reality: Although the cycle feels different (due to the apathy top instead of euphoria), the structure is identical. The main difference is the lower price level.
  • Retail Interest: Retail participation is declining, visible in falling YouTube views. Many are disappointed by altcoin promises and rug pulls.
  • Bear Market Duration: Historically, the resistance band was not sustainably broken until the year after the halving (e.g., January 2019, March 2015). The bottom may still be ahead.
Conclusion

The speaker expects a rejection at the resistance band and a decline in late summer. Volatility may return, but a sustainable uptrend is not expected until the year after the halving.

SOURCE