Benjamin Cowen|20. Juli
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation
Ethereum Under the Microscope: Between Hope and Historical Patterns
The analyst examines Ethereum (ETH) at around $1,900 and evaluates potential scenarios for the remainder of the year, drawing parallels to midterm years 2018 and 2022.
Key Insights:
- Historical Patterns: July is often bullish in midterm years, but August and September tend to be weak. Bitcoin could drag Ethereum down.
- 2018 vs. 2022 Comparison: In 2018, ETH dropped 80% after a July rally, while in 2022 it formed a higher low. Current low social interest resembles 2018 more.
- ETH/BTC Pair: The pair keeps testing support (Bull Market Support Band) and gets rejected at the 20-month moving average. A further decline in August–September is possible.
- Rate Hike Fears: A potential rate hike or its threat in autumn could pressure riskier assets like altcoins.
- Conclusion: The author doesn't expect an immediate crash but warns of a weakness window from August to October. If ETH holds around $1,800 by September–October, that would be a positive sign. Until then, caution is advised.
Key Takeaway: Entering now carries the risk of a further 40–80% decline. Historically, buying ETH in July hasn't always paid off – it depends on what happens next.
