DER AKTIONÄR TV|13. Mai
DeepSeek, Xpeng & Co.: Hebt China bei KI und Mobilität jetzt ab?
Podcast Summary: Money Train – China Insights with Michael Dirtel
Disclaimer: The stocks and funds discussed do not represent specific buy or investment recommendations. The hosts and publisher are not liable for any losses incurred from implementing the ideas.
1. General Market Overview of China
- Current Influences: The Iran conflict and the ongoing trade dispute (particularly the Xi-Trump meeting) are shaping the market. There is optimism about a potential new trade deal.
- Market Assessment: China's AI story is massively underestimated by the stock market. Many tech stocks, such as Tencent, are trading around 40% below their all-time highs, despite strong fundamentals.
- Potential: China is already very advanced in areas like autonomous driving and digital twins, but this is not yet reflected in stock prices.
2. Artificial Intelligence & DeepSeek
- DeepSeek R1: This chatbot was a game-changer because it delivered performance comparable to competitors (OpenAI, Anthropic) using fewer chips (Nvidia).
- DeepSeek V4: The new model can be trained solely on Huawei's Ascend 950 chips (without Nvidia). It is open-source, allowing for rapid dissemination.
- Impact on Nvidia: US export restrictions have incentivized China to develop its own hardware infrastructure. China is increasingly able to bypass Nvidia.
- Future Outlook: A breakthrough in EUV lithography (producing advanced chips) is expected between 2028 and 2030. China is then expected to be neck-and-neck with the US and could take a leading position in the medium term (post-2030).
3. Mobility & Autonomous Driving
- Travel Report: Michael Dirtel visited Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shenzhen. He spent three days at XPeng and two days at Huawei.
- Autonomous Driving: In designated test areas, cars drive smoothly and without issues in normal traffic (including lane changes and maintaining distance).
- XPeng Production: The production line is almost fully autonomous. Current efficiency is about 90 seconds per vehicle (VW Wolfsburg: ~30 seconds). The humanoid robot Iron is expected to assist in production starting 2025/2026.
- Flying Cars: XPeng's Land Aircraft Carrier (LAAC) is an SUV that contains a manned drone for two people (max. 160 kg). It can be ready within 5 minutes, fly for 20 minutes (up to 130 km/h), and can be charged by the SUV up to 5 times.
4. Everyday Life & Digitalization
- Payments: Alipay or WeChat Pay allow payment via QR codes everywhere (even at small stalls). Cash is rarely needed. Advanced systems even allow payment via palm scanning.
5. Expert Conclusion
- China is underestimated: Many people talk about China without having experienced it firsthand. The progress is massive and is often ignored due to arrogance or closed-mindedness.
- Recommendation: One should examine why certain things work so well in China in order to avoid falling further behind.
Info on Michael Dirtel: He is an editor at "Der Aktionär", an expert in technical analysis and China, and the author of the China Stock Report (bi-weekly with live notifications on stocks and model portfolios).
