DER AKTIONÄR TV|13. Mai
DAX: Relative Schwäche 2026 - deswegen sind andere Indizes stärker
DAX Under Pressure: Causes and Strategies for Investors
In this interview with Julius Weiß from HSBC, the relative weakness of the German DAX index in 2026 is analyzed. The DAX is lagging behind both German small-cap indices (MDAX, SDAX) and international indices (S&P 500, Nikkei).
The Facts:
- Performance: The DAX is in negative territory year-to-date and has only gained about 3-4% over the last 12 months. In comparison, the MDAX and SDAX have performed significantly better.
- International Comparison: The gap is particularly stark compared to US indices (Nasdaq, S&P 500) and Japan's Nikkei, which are heavily driven by technology and AI stocks.
Reasons for the Weakness:
- Structural Burden: The DAX is heavily weighted towards export-oriented, cyclical companies (automotive, chemicals).
- Global Risks: A weak Chinese economy, tariff disputes, and high energy prices/supply concerns particularly burden these sectors.
- Lack of Tech Giants: Unlike other indices, the DAX lacks the major technology and AI stocks that are currently driving markets.
Outlook: Strategies for Investors
Julius Weiß identifies global economic growth, trade policy, and energy costs as key factors for the DAX’s future. To profit from a potential sideways market, he suggests discount certificates:
- How it Works: These products have a fixed maturity (e.g., year-end) and a capped profit, but offer a buffer against losses.
- Attractive Conditions: In a sideways market for the DAX, yields of around 10% p.a. are possible. The loss buffer is 6-7%, meaning the DAX can fall moderately without the certificate incurring losses.
- Risks: Profit potential is capped. A severe downturn in the DAX will still lead to losses. Additionally, issuer risk must be considered.
Conclusion: The DAX suffers from structural disadvantages. Discount certificates offer a tactical way to generate returns in this sideways phase but do not replace direct investment and carry their own risks.
