Bankless|17. Juli
Crypto Is Running Out of Reasons to Go Lower
📉 Market Status and Bottoming
- Question of the Week: Have we bottomed yet? Almost, but not yet. Historical cycles suggest a bottom in 2-3 months (October), followed by sideways movement.
- Macro Factors: Inflation is cooling (CPI 3.5%, core 2.6%), but the Iran war heats up oil prices (+20% in July). US military strikes continue to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Bitcoin & Ether: BTC +2.5%, ETH +8% for the week. The ETH/BTC ratio is rising, boosted by Robin Hood Chain and Tom Lee's purchases.
- Robin Hood Chain overtakes Base in activity (117 vs. 93 user operations per second). TVL: Morpho $152M, Aave $110M, Uniswap $40M.
- Meme Coin Competition: Cash Cat (Robin Hood) vs. Anom Coin (Solana) – both similar in size (~$100–200M market cap).
- Base Pivot: Jesse Pollock (creator of Base) admits the creator coin focus was wrong. New focus: DeFi and trading. Kobe takes over the Base app.
- Debate: Is ETH a store of value asset or a fee-generating asset? Robin Hood Chain paid Ethereum only $1,538 for data availability (0.15% of revenue).
- Two Paths: Either ETH as store of value (fees irrelevant) or reduce capacity for higher fees (leading to $100 ETH).
- Steven Goldfeder's Proposal (Arbitrum): L2s pay more rent to Ethereum if Ethereum forks on critical bugs. Counterargument: risk to decentralization.
- ETF Spin-offs: ETH Systems (institutional privacy) – the third spin-off from the Ethereum Foundation. Funded by BitMine, Sharpink, Joe Lubin.
- DeFi Hacks: The hack wave in April 2024 peaked; damages have since declined. AI has not created a permanent threat as defenders adapt.
- Buy-and-Burn Model: Successful tokens like Hype, VVV, LIT, JTO use this model. Prerequisites: real fee revenue and focus on token holder interests.
Conclusion: The market shows strength, but the final bottom is still missing. Robin Hood Chain revitalizes the Ethereum ecosystem, yet the question of ETH's value mechanism remains unresolved. Buy-and-burn tokens are the trend of 2026.
