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• The speaker (Sven) analyzes Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) after recent earnings, discussing Greg Abel's spending and Michael Burry's comment about lacking patience for the „fat pitch“ Warren Buffett waited for.
• Conclusion: Berkshire is not a buy – valuations are high and growth potential limited.

• Intrinsic value calculated with a template: net income $45B, market cap $1.124T. At 6% growth and P/E 17, returns are minimal.
• Historical P/E for Berkshire ranged 10–18; currently at 25 – above average.
• Scenario with 8% growth and P/E 25 gives present value below current market cap.
• Adjusted for insurance volatility and investment income, fair value is ~$800B – implying 30% downside.

• Greg Abel starts deploying cash – Berkshire now spends more than it takes in, during an expensive market (S&P 500 dividend yield lower than dot-com peak).
• Recent buys like Google or Occidental Petroleum ($9.7B) yield only 6–10% – below Buffett's historical target of 8–10%.
• Cash pile (~$350–400B) supports value, but treasury returns (3.8%) reduce operating earnings power.

• To achieve 8% annual return at a P/E of 15, Berkshire would need earnings of $160B in 10 years – that's 13.5% growth per year. Realistic is 6–7%.
• Thus intrinsic value lands at $498B currently – a potential 50% drop from the stock price.

• Buy?: No – too expensive, insufficient margin of safety.
• Hold?: Depends – the speaker would sell (like Michael Burry).
• Berkshire is better than the overall market (30% downside vs. 50–70% for S&P 500), but that's not value investing anymore.
• Comparing to the 10-year Treasury (4.7%) makes Berkshire less attractive.

Where do you stand? Let's discuss in the comments.

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The Pagani Huayra Codalunga Speedster is a breathtaking one-off from Pagani's exclusive “Grande Complicazione” division. Only 10 examples are being built – all already sold. The car tested is the factory prototype, and Pagani has never handed over the keys to anyone before.

• The name Codalunga literally means “long tail” – fitting for the extended rear section.
• It features an entirely new carbon-and-titanium chassis, unique to this model.
• The carbon rear clamshell measures 3.7 m² – bigger than a regulation pool table.
• Highlights include an oval front “mouth”, pistachio green paint over exposed carbon, bespoke wheels with left- and right-handed spokes, slimmer air intakes and snorkel-style air scoops.
• No mesh, no grille at the rear – instead a ceramic quad exhaust plus hidden extra pipes blowing hot gas over the diffuser.
• Even the rear fog light becomes theatre in its own little “tail gunner” pod.

• The cabin still looks stunning 15 years after the original Huayra.
• It features the first wooden steering wheel in a Huayra – a homage to the Zonda.
• The wood matches the gear knob of the 7-speed open-gate manual gearbox.
• Pagani developed its own touchscreen, but for the Utopia they moved back to smaller screens and buttons – a welcome decision.
• The upholstery can be customized with 4 million stitches and an exhaust-pattern fabric.
• Detail obsession: the key tray is longer to fit the longer Codalunga key.

• Power comes from a 6.0-litre twin-turbo V12 by AMG, built exclusively for Pagani.
• With 852 hp, it is the most powerful road-going Pagani ever – 24 hp more than the coupe.
• The soundtrack is not an operatic V12 scream, but a menacing mix of turbo hiss, sucking and whistling.
• The manual dog-leg 7-speed gearbox takes time to master but offers more control than the usual automated manuals.
• A blip button on the steering wheel rev-matches automatically if you like.
• Despite its exclusivity, the car does not feel fragile: lovely steering, great ride and proper sports-car engineering.

• The price is €11 million – which explains the extreme bespoke effort.
• The Codalunga Speedster is called the prettiest Huayra of all time.
• It proves that hypercars are not just collector's items – they deserve to be driven shamelessly and mercilessly.

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• Ben Cowan admitted he was wrong: he expected a Q4 flush, but Bitcoin broke above the May high and now trades around $85K.
• Bitcoin has shrugged off macro headwinds (rising yields, strong dollar, higher energy prices) that normally would pressure it.

• The current bear market lasted only ~9 months – similar to 2019, but without a massive volume spike at the bottom.
• Compared to the previous cycle (Terra/Luna, FTX), there were fewer ‚sins‘ to pay for, hence less pain.
• The 4-year cycle remains intact, even if the bottom came earlier than expected (summer instead of Q4).

• Global net liquidity is still severely constrained (~$25T vs $30T in 2021).
• Monetary policy is less restrictive now (Fed funds rate below 2-year yield), allowing altcoins to rally.
• However, a true alt season is unlikely unless Bitcoin first has a euphoric rally and liquidity surges (which would require a crisis first).
• The Bitcoin pair index (ALT/BTC) does not yet show a sustainable rotation.

• The decisive factor is the weekly close above/below ~$82,800 (May high).
  • Above it: Bullish – the bottom is likely in.
  • Below it: Bearish – could still see a Q4 low.

• The recent spike in YouTube views is not due to renewed retail interest, but to a change in how views are counted (now counts after 1 second).
• Other metrics (Coinbase app ranking, Google Trends, Twitter followers) show no recovery in retail demand.

Takeaway: Stay flexible. As long as Bitcoin holds above $83K, the bullish case is intact. A weekly close below that level could trigger another Q4 decline.

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